Icarus: A Climate TL
- Thread starter ItsMyKetchup
- Start date
CFCs have been banned by international convention since 2014 (although they are still being used in some industrial capacity in a few countries) while HCFCs and HFCs are still in use but are being phased out in Europe, China, and the U.S for environmental reasons.
Considering the more dire situation ITTL, you'd think that they'd do it any faster. After all, isn't what had happened IOTL?
The science was really only firmly established on the issue by the late 1990s (compared to the 1970s/80s OTL), and some countries did take action during the 2000s, it just took until 2014 for something even resembling the Montreal Protocol of OTL.
Oof. Given it took 20+ years for ozone to peak after OTL's montreal conference, this suggests ozone layer damage will peak out around 2034. Given what's gone on in TTL as is...
Oh goodness, the ICA was approved! And the rebooted LA crisis seems to have been revealed as well!
One thing I was wondering is if there are any radical forms of geoengineering being developed? I know there are some for OTL, but are governments investigating plans for "ozone reconstruction" considering that stay at home orders are issued for American cities in the south and southwest. Which makes me wonder, how bad are things in Central America if places as far north as Atlanta and Denver are having lethal UV exposure?
OTL the major problems started in the polar regions so it's actually probably "that far south." Which is actually even worse since LA is only about 30 north. In any case most ideas to inject more ozone i to the atmosphere (or make it from oxygen) will run into the fact the crap depleting it is still present. Odds are they wouldn't be able to keep ahead of the problem.
I think by this point ITTL the ozone layer has essentially collapsed for much of the year, if not entirely, and there are probably certain times during the year when UV radiation is near-free to bombard the Earth with very little ozone to shield it. At that point, equatorial regions would fair worse due to directly facing the sun, negating any protection that a more consistent concentration of ozone would have if that layer just doesn't exist. Then again I don't know, I've also heard that the issue would have always impacted the Global North the hardest and so that's why every part of the developed world took it seriously, despite not doing the same for climate change in OTL.
Unfortunately accurate. It's a sad fact that humans tend to be more inclined to fix a mess if it impacts them personally.
Ozone-depleting substances can cause ozone depletion worldwide. It's just that the polar vortex causes these substances to collect over Antarctica (and over the Arctic in smaller quantities). But since basically nobody lives in Antarctica, ozone depletion's effects are mostly seen in the tropics, where a more direct angle will cause greater UV exposure.
Interestingly, cold temperatures also cause ozone depletion. Don't count on global warming to reverse this either, since ozone depletion causes a southward drift of the polar jet stream, keeping Antarctica cold. Not really related, but I might try to implement this factoid into the timeline somehow.
There are definitely geoengineering proposals to inject some particle or chemical into the atmosphere to reduce global warming or decrease ozone depletion. But like OTL it's far too risky to gamble the entire planet on some untested theories.
Less risky forms of geoengineering (i.e, painting roofs white, cloud seeding) are being tested and implemented worldwide. By far the most successful form of geoengineering are 'miracle strains' of GMO crops that increase crop yield, are more resistant to global warming, and sequester carbon in the soil. These crops are pretty much the only reason that human civilization is even possibly viable in the future.
Have they considered nuking yellowstone, long valley, valles caldera, lake toba, taupo caldera and aira caldera? Setting off all six known supervolcanoes at once would at least change things.
AllThePresidentsMen
Banned
To start with, that'd fuck whatever's left of America's agricultural industry. So no.
I said it would change things. I did not say it'd help.
Excepting Yellowstone (and even that isn't imminent) none of those are known to be ready to blow so I doubt it would be any good.