yeah it'd be cool if that's the case, with how they are getting pushed to the margins of society rn.
Nobunaga’s Ambition Realized: Dawn of a New Rising Sun
- Thread starter Ambassador Huntsman
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John Fredrick Parker
Donor
Actually, looking back at this, are we sure the Spanish Empire had a larger GDP than Japan in the 17th Century? Yes, they’re colonial empire was massive, but most lived in extreme poverty (extreme even by pre-modern standards); and the Tokugawa actually had a larger population circa 1700 than the Spanish Empire did.
On that subject, it looks to be very possible for Japan to have a larger economy than the Tsardom of Russia TTL, considering they had about twice as large a population and only fell slightly behind during OTL’s 17th Century. I can actually see a scenario TTL where at the start of the 18th Century, you have the big three economies of the world -- the Qing, the Mughal, and the Ottomans -- and the next two largest economies are the French and Japanese, poised to surpass the latter.
Then, depending on how the 18th Century as a whole goes for them, Japan could be one of the major economies just behind China and India going into the 19th Century (OTL, powers along the lines of Britain, France, and Russia).
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Thank you!!
This is the video I used as a reference point back then. Obviously it's not perfect but I do think that the Spanish Empire's wealth from the silver mines and other natural resources and capital from its colonies do make it an economic juggernaut still above Japan. And yeah Japan has the potential to be a top player, but its main disadvantage rn is that it lacks the sovereign trade reach that Europe possesses or the natural resources and sheer size the Mughals and Ming have.
Nah the Ming and the Mughals have too much land and resources to pull from, while Japan as to pull from trade. If Japan's economy becomes bigger than them it'd be around the late 18th to 19th century where both China and India stagnate and Japan would be going through their golden years + Alaskan (and Californian?) gold rush.
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
Right on. Then yeah, being the eighth largest economy in the late 17th Century makes perfect sense, though I’d maintain they can still surpass both Poland-Lithuania and the Spanish Empire by 1710 or so, or at least around the same time that France surpasses the Ottoman Empire.
On this subject, I do wonder if Britain will have the same meteoritic rise in the 18th Century it enjoyed TTL? OTL, it was this rise that allowed them to join the “big three” (behind China and India) with France and Russia by 1800; TTL, you could have France, Russia, and Japan instead.
Would love to see that.
John Fredrick Parker
Donor
Or alternatively the Marathas succeed in replacing them. Or really any scenario where the BEIC doesn’t just straight up conquer India.
The Irish comparison aside — I can see the Chinese divide between Bireitou and Ruson developing as similarly as the Italian North-South divide IOTL, as both grow part from each other even up to their linguistics.
Now — I want to see the unholy combination of the Triad's Chinese chauvinism and the Omerta of the Sicilian Mafia, this time with Yakuza characteristics
Now — I want to see the unholy combination of the Triad's Chinese chauvinism and the Omerta of the Sicilian Mafia, this time with Yakuza characteristics
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Well England/Britain is already lagging behind ITTL compared to OTL. Obviously it doesn’t have the Mid-Atlantic colonies in North America or Jamaica, but because Charles II marries Christina of Sweden instead of Catherine of Braganza ITTL, there’s no Portuguese dowry that hands Bombay and Tangiers to the English. So it is a possibility.
There’s a good chance things will end differently from OTL, though the Portuguese cannot be forgotten as they’re much more dominant on the Indian subcontinent ITTL.
There aren’t many Chinese in Luson, mostly merchants and artisans in urban areas. It’s not like Bireitou where there’s a sizable Chinese rural population besides the merchants, fishermen, and the Zheng/Tagawa clan retinue.
I'm not sure France could ever reach the heights Britain did because they would be beset by enemies on all sides, a situation the Brits on their isle could conveniently avoid. That's not to say that France would not become the hegemon of Europe rather that the ceiling to their power would be lower than that of Perfidious Albion.
Also, is the HRE already out for the count? I would have expected the continued existence of the Netherlands inside the framework of the Empire would rather significantly bolster their position. So much so, that they could be a serious contender for the position of top-dog inside Europe. (Yes, it's the HRE-fanatic inside of me speaking
)The biggest impact the Netherlands still being a part of the HRE is that of greater commercial activity between the Republic and the German states and greater ease of any German settlers interested in New Netherland. That being said, the HRE is the HRE in its decentralized state and it’s not too different from OTL. That being said, Brandenburg’s earlier acquisition of at least part of Silesia makes it a bigger player than IOTL.I'm not sure France could ever reach the heights Britain did because they would be beset by enemies on all sides, a situation the Brits on their isle could conveniently avoid. That's not to say that France would not become the hegemon of Europe rather that the ceiling to their power would be lower than that of Perfidious Albion.
Also, is the HRE already out for the count? I would have expected the continued existence of the Netherlands inside the framework of the Empire would rather significantly bolster their position. So much so, that they could be a serious contender for the position of top-dog inside Europe. (Yes, it's the HRE-fanatic inside of me speaking
I disagree, a France that manages to "clean house" aka achieve good borders(mainly conquest of the Netherlands, parts of the Rhinelande and Savoy) can and will propel themselves into the international scene with their massive resource, something France was already doing early like when Francis I and his successors tried to establish Colonies on Brazil or Louis XIV's expansion of the navy and attempts to increase the population in New France, increase productivity in the West Indies and Indian adventures that would make them one of the few powers capable of actually being able to rival British power on the subcontinent.I'm not sure France could ever reach the heights Britain did because they would be beset by enemies on all sides, a situation the Brits on their isle could conveniently avoid. That's not to say that France would not become the hegemon of Europe rather that the ceiling to their power would be lower than that of Perfidious Albion.
Also, is the HRE already out for the count? I would have expected the continued existence of the Netherlands inside the framework of the Empire would rather significantly bolster their position. So much so, that they could be a serious contender for the position of top-dog inside Europe. (Yes, it's the HRE-fanatic inside of me speaking
So while I don't think they'll have a easy time for it, I do see them being able to surpass Britain simply because they would have that much more resources to draw from, as well as a variety of other factors like diminished British power here and a somewhat better position in the continent.
That's fair ... It's difficult to predict (and thus you probably have quite a lot of leeway as the author) how the inclusion of the Netherlands in the HRE will raise the overall level of wealth inside the HRE. Equally as difficult, if not more so, will be determining how this state of affairs will influence the policies of firstly the other major players inside the HRE and secondly of the Netherlands itself. Even if this is already the decentralised era of the HRE, this does not mean Austria e.g. would look kindly on France waltzing in on what Austria regards (somewhat rightfully) as its own sphere if influence. I am keen to see how you will have this play out.
I think you misunderstood slightly what I meant, I did not mean to say that France won't be able to surpass the Brits ITTL, rather that they would not be able to reach the heights that the Brits achieved IOTL. Surpassing the Brits ITTL is if not an easy, then at least an achievable task. Further and obviously I'm biased, I believe that the managing of "good borders" is quite a tall bar to clear especially because a France that is clearly the preeminent power in Europe would have a much harder time not gathering enemies, certainly if it does pursue such an expansionist policy. They do share land borders after all with most of their enemies.
All I'm trying to say is that France will have a hard time capitalising on the relative lack of British power, that the HRE (or rather its chief players) is not down for the count and will do its utmost to curb French expansion. I continue to be impressed by the magnificent tale that @Ambassasor Huntsman is weaving and have complete faith that he will come up with a plausible outcome for this particular scenario, too.
Tbf one difference that I see happening is the Dutch bringing in German settlers into Dutch colonies and making them more able to do settler colonisation than otl. Another interesting difference that I could see happen is that the Dutch remain being part of a greater German identity and it's the Dutch that unites Germany instead, which I can see happen if they attempt to conquer the smaller landholders around them.
That'd where I disagree, France was arguably the strongest country in Europe during the time of Louis XIII and Louis XIV, the fact they managed to weather through several wars between themselves and the other major powers of Europe (Spain, England, Austria/HRE) and not only not lose but actually achieve territorial and diplomatic gains shows that France does have the potential to not only stay on top but keep themselves there, especially in the absence of English power.
For instance, a France that manages to conquer the Austrian Netherlands gets essentially a perfect freeway to invade the Dutch whenever they feel like it, get a nice port for the navy and potential invasion of England and remove the main Spanish dagger from their throat as well as allowing them a bridge towards a potential invasion of the Rhineland. And that's just one territory that is arguably the easiest to happen for them and already it accomplishes so much to the point France would truly be able to throw it's weight around.
That's not even mentioning stuff like the economical power of France that had long surpassed Spain and Austria and was one of the many reasons they could afford wars while their enemies were scrapping at the barrel as well as the fact France had the second largest navy in Europe at the time, losing only to Spaniards initially and then to the Brits, so they definitely had the potential to not only do more than Britain but also surpass them in every way and without the English rise ITTL, that just makes France's job easier since their main rivals are the Austrians who are looking more and more into the Balkans and the Spaniards that are already in their decline phase and suffering from chronic bankruptcy (even worst ITTL because of the loss of the Philippines) meaning there's no one to hold the Big Blue Blob back anymore.
they'll quickly break apart with how big France is getting. England was allied with the Netherlands before they fought each other.
Why? France doesn't oppose or threaten the territories they want and French expansion keeps one of their rivals(HRE/Autria) busy, same thing with the Danes who would try to take advantage of the chaos the French would cause in the HRE to do their own expansion. Plus, French subsidies were VERY important in stuff like the 30 Years War that helped them field such huge, quality armies in the field, so really Sweden doesn't have anything to gain and a lot to lose if they decide to turn against France for the reason of "we don't like how big you are getting, even if you don't even border us"