Stalin could have small/large scale population transfers in Turkey given historical OTL stance on the policy. Turkish citizens could become forced laborers.
Turkey in this TTL could have a small Russian/etc minority.
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Of lost monkeys and broken vehicles
- Thread starter Lascaris
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Turkey in this TTL could have a small Russian/etc minority.
One should consider that Turkey has a smaller starting population, bigger migration and is less food secure overall. If any territories are lost , like Kurdistan which has a lot of hostile population that will multiply, they will lose even more population potential. Also I really believe a lot of Turks will migrate as they did OTL for better fate out of their very bad economic situation. Also even if they have a lot of children and the medicine is available someone will have to pay for that so it definitely depends on the government subsidies on medicine to the general population or else the citizens won't have the ability to buy said medications. The food insecurity might not stop them from having more kids but it will certainly stop their growth especially in a bad harvest and a world crisis were food price skyrockets.
I agree that they will have bigger population than Greece simply due to bigger start point but I can't see them surpassing 45mill by the end of the century.
Long Live the Greek Resistance might be what he wanted to say right?
. Reprisals are gonna be harsh though but I would also want to see the Bulgarian political scene's reaction to this assassination. The Turks consider a win stopping an army that they were supposed to push out of Iraq in the Gates of Anatolia? Shows some nice twists in their minds from an attacking nation towards a defending one. Now it remains to be seen how they will handle a Soviet counterattack. Will they cheer when they stop them outside of Erzurum?
The medicine is not that expensive. Most countries with massive population bulges are a) neither very rich b) nor breadbaskets. Turkey is not Mongolia. Central Anatolia is not a desert. There is land (not as good as Thrace sure, but there is), and there is also a lot of animal husbandry. Migration is a given, but that in itself does not mitigate population growth. Money sent back by migrants can support family growth, indeed families have an incentive to make a lot of kids so that some stay and work the field, or animals, while others go to cities or outside the country to provide other sources of income. But sure probably we are looking at a 40-50 million large population by the 2000s.
Also while it is true that Turkey will be surrounded by potential enemy states, one should not assume that those states will also not have severe stability issues. Considering Kurdish identity and culture in the 1940s-1950s, I would not expect Kurdistan to be much of a military threat to anybody. Indeed I would expect a lot of Kurdish migration to Turkey and the Middle East for work.
Also I need to remind that Greece is 1945 will be devastated country. Large parts occupied, other large parts war-zones. This is not exactly a scenario that is very optimistic.
Also while it is true that Turkey will be surrounded by potential enemy states, one should not assume that those states will also not have severe stability issues. Considering Kurdish identity and culture in the 1940s-1950s, I would not expect Kurdistan to be much of a military threat to anybody. Indeed I would expect a lot of Kurdish migration to Turkey and the Middle East for work.
Also I need to remind that Greece is 1945 will be devastated country. Large parts occupied, other large parts war-zones. This is not exactly a scenario that is very optimistic.
I Don't think a TL that has Hitler's harebrained Sickle Cut take out France (something that was a spot of REALLY bad luck OTL)
What would you call the biggest golden BBs of the Pacific War, and WW2 in general if they're not the same?
The same will be true of Turkey, except to an even greater extent. Greece will have the advantage of having surviving industry, like a great deal of captured industry, and being the victor.
All these things are a recipe for a baby boom. Not that Turkey won't also have one, but Greece (assuming they get the lands in Anatolia we think they will get) will be far more powerful than what is left of Turkey likely will be. Turkey will surely remain a serious revanchist concern, and the source of some nasty insurgencies, but let's not make it sound like they will somehow end up being less powerful than Turkey here, they have everything going for them that Turkey simply won't.
mapuche lautarino
Banned
and if the turkey of this tl is more like albania of our timeline, a soviet ally with a declining birth rate and a giant urban population
That was already the case IOTL, followed by a devastating four-year civil war right after. And OTL Greece had a major population boom post-war. ITTL there will be parts of the country left unoccupied, infrastructure investments by the Allies, no civil war, more territory so less emigration, etc. Whatever happens, the massive population disparity of OTL with Turkey won't repeat itself. I'd wager something like 7:10, or less.
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I wonder what will happen with this TL's Greeks in Egypt..
Evacuated and used to populate part of Anatolia, or used to bolster Constantinople's population on the east of the Bosphorus..?
Evacuated and used to populate part of Anatolia, or used to bolster Constantinople's population on the east of the Bosphorus..?
There are couple off the top of my head in the Pacific War.
1. The Akagi. 41,000 tons, One1,000lb bomb. See ya.
2. The Taiho. 37,000 tons. Built on all the lesson gleaned from the disaster at Midway. One Torpedo. Say hi to Flipper for me.
...and, for my money, the Golden BB of Golden BB
The Bismarck. while she was sunk by a hail of gunfire and torpedoes, she was effectively killed by a single torpedo hit that came within 20 feet of missing the ship entirely, managed to hit the one part of the ship that an air dropped torpedo could cause crippling damage, and hitting at exactly the moment the rudder was perfectly positioned to ensure that the ship became unmanageable. Low order miracle.
Sure, along with a couple remarkably poor design decisions.
Still... 37,000 ton heavily armored carrier. One Torpedo. See, wouldn't want to be ya.
Classic golden BB, naval division.
Wrong bullet, at the wrong place at the wrong time. Or perhaps right bullet, at the right place at the right time... depends on the eye of the beholder.
A Golden BB is, in the classic sense, a single bullet thagt manages to take down an aircraft., As used in this conversation it means a extremely unlikely event that results in a loss of a warship e.g. a single 1,000lb bomb sinking a 41,000 ton ton aircraft carrier built from a battlecruiser hull.
Earlier demographic transition could well be a boon for Turkey... but the factors affecting it are not entirely likely to be notably altered TTL. If being low income was enough to turn a country's demographics... why a lot of countries in real life should have way lower populations...
Kurdistan's prospects would depend on how much of Mosul's oil they control... but to reverse the question is TTL Turkey worse off economically in the long term if they do not control Kurdistan?
It's not supposed to be optimistic, it's supposed to be plausible
Could I make a reasonably plausible argument of the Germans going through Belgium in January 1940 and being stuck in the mud or France fighting on as a result of the POD? Possibly. I did think about it for certain. Why I did not go along with this? One reason was I was not entirely happy with the logical change of events leading to a January German attack, France looked to me more plausible but not a given. It could plausibly happen, yes but by no means would it be the most likely outcome to force my hand. This being the case there was also an obvious meta reason, this TL is an attempt to explore the possible results of a specific counterfactual, namely the long term effects of a Greek victory in 1919-22. If France fights on in very short order we go from exploring the effects of Greece winning in 1919-22 to the effects of France fighting on. So sure butterflies have been kept relatively conservative, when they do not stem from the main POD or they do not involve entirely random events. Pulawski and Carden dying in air crashes a decade or two after the POD. And of course I might have tipped a bit the scales at people I liked... or disliked when throwing the inevitable butterflies around, Mike Collins and Franco I'm looking at you.
Serpent
Banned
As I've a analyzed on length earlier, that's my bet, because it makes sense both strategically speaking, as well as economically speaking, ad the area east of the Bosporus, aka Bithynia, both can act as a bulwark against potential future Turkish aggression and protect Constantinople from it, but also fertile soil, but also IOTL it is Turkey's main industrial hub, its loss would propably see the Turkish industry dispersed throughout Anatolia, leading to far less efficiency, due to the horrible infrastructure that the Anatolian countryside has that they'd have to go through. Not only that, but it could possibly became Greece's 5th industrial area, after Athens, Constantinople, Smyrna & Thessaloniki in the future, whereas minerals & other resources taken as reparations by the Greek state pass from this area first, as the closest to Turkey, ending up in the hands of the enterpranually spirited Greeks from Egypt, mostly merchants but overall sharp businessmen, investing their wealth on manufacturing sector, thus driving urbanization in the entire Bithynian region, thus enabling the settlement of Prusa to grow back to an important city for Greece, in the span of 5 to 10 years.
Not only that but if greece get it's hands of zonguldak coal fields it would get the only hard coal in the region