1904 - Germany Betrays Russia

[RMcD94]

Russian–Japanese negotiations then followed, although by early January 1904 the Japanese government had realised that Russia was not interested in settling the Manchurian or Korean issues. Instead, Russia's goal was buying time—via diplomacy—to further build up militarily.[37] In December 1903, Wilhelm wrote in a marginal note on a diplomatic dispatch about his role in inflaming Russo-Japanese relations:

Since 97—Kiaochow—we have never left Russia in any doubt that we would cover her back in Europe, in case she decided to pursue a bigger policy in the Far East that might lead to military complications (with the aim of relieving our eastern border from the fearful pressure and threat of the massive Russian army!). Whereupon, Russia took Port Arthur and trusting us, took her fleet out of the Baltic, thereby making herself vulnerable to us by sea. In Danzig 01 and Reval 02, the same assurance was given again, with result that entire Russian divisions from Poland and European Russia were and are being sent to the Far East. This would not had happened if our governments had not been in agreement![38]

After writing this Wilhelm has one of the few moments of clarity in his life. It so happens as he pauses in thought after writing it that he speaks with Der Goltz (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colmar_Freiherr_von_der_Goltz) in their discussion they point out the following truths:

1) If Japan goes to war with Russia, Russia will have its flanks exposed and attention diverted
2) Japan's alliance with Britain ensures that if France joins Russia Britain is obligated to join the war and fight both Russia and France
3) The Triple Alliance and the Swedes have much to gain from Russia's demise
4) The Ottomans, Persians and Qing have much to gain from Russia's demise.
5) German's strength vis-a-vis Russia is at its zenith, and Russia will only grow proportionally stronger over time as it continues to industrialise
6) A war with such overwhelming odds may keep France from defending Russia, and Russia will have to surrender nigh-immediately or be dismantled.

They conclude that if Russia is at war with Japan then it would be the best opportunity to attack Russia as it's the only time that a continental war can occur without Britain getting involved. Wilhelm's dream of global hegemony would be better realised with economic domination over Eastern Europe.

If Germany was victorious France could never challenge her and would be forced to join an alliance against Britain (or the USA or Japan or w/e enemy Wilhelm has next).

Let's accept that this premise is at least possible even if unlikely (5% chance say). Let's focus on this 5% universe chance where Germany decides to go to war with Russia if it goes to war with Japan. In addition Japan's declaration of war is delivered 3 hours earlier so it's not as much of a pariah.

How does the war play out? How mad is Nicholas? What does the peace look like? Do the neutral powers jump on this? How about revolution?

Map of Europe as of 1904-04-08

 

[kreepysam]

One front war with Russia is the dream scenario for Germany. But can they manufacture even a flimsy CB for a war of aggression against Russia? Also, if Russia sees Germany trying to stab them in the back, might they not just offer the Japanese an armistice? Keeping hold of Poland and Ukraine is a lot more important than Port Arthur.

 

[RMcD94]

One front war with Russia is the dream scenario for Germany. But can they manufacture even a flimsy CB for a war of aggression against Russia? Also, if Russia sees Germany trying to stab them in the back, might they not just offer the Japanese an armistice? Keeping hold of Poland and Ukraine is a lot more important than Port Arthur.

I think it's easy to make a CB, they can say they're trying to do it for the Poles, or to help Sweden reclaim Finland, or whatever. Lie and say that Russia was planning to take German China too?

Alternatively the Baltic Fleet sailing could be the incident, they fired on Brits they could fire on Germans.

https://i.redd.it/n6sni3scely01.jpg

It's certainly likely Russia will try to reduce their enemies. So say within 1 month Russia is offering Japan an armistice? What are the terms? Is Japan accepting? Japan may see this as an opportunity to reduce Russia forever, and that would be a great relief to their geopolitics.

 

[Aphrodite]

The French attack the Germans. With their quick firing 75, they dominate the battlefield. Within six weeks they reach the Rhine and the Kaiser surrenders

 

[RMcD94]

The French attack the Germans. With their quick firing 75, they dominate the battlefield. Within six weeks they reach the Rhine and the Kaiser surrenders

How do they deal with the British?

Would they try to offer stuff to Japan to get them to not be at war? If Japan declares war on France, which would make sense if they're allied with Russia and at war with Germany, then Britain is obligated to fight France.

If the 75 was enough to totally dominate Germany why didn't they press their advantage earlier? In the Agadir Crisis for example France attended the conference because they didn't want war. Obviously it didn't work out for Germany but France's original position was not to attend until Germany threatened war.

What does the peace treaty look like? What happens to Italy, AH, Sweden?

Here are some threads about First Moroccan Crisis:

WI: The First Moroccan Crisis leads to World War 1?

Not the case at all, I'd say it's the opposite, the further back you go, the higher the advantage the Germans have. Why do I think this? The answer is simple: the Franco-Prussian war. A Prussia which had not fully unified Germany absolutely destroyed the French army with their modernized...

www.alternatehistory.com

What if Germany attacked France in 1905?

As you know, von Schlieffen asked for a preventive war against France in 1905. because Russia was occupied in Far East and german naval policy was clearly set for confrontation with UK. OTL Chancellor von Bulow and Kaiser refused to go into war. But, what if they decided to go into the war?

www.alternatehistory.com

In addition my understanding of French plans at the time was not that aggressive

 

[Aphrodite]

How do they deal with the British?

Would they try to offer stuff to Japan to get them to not be at war? If Japan declares war on France, which would make sense if they're allied with Russia and at war with Germany, then Britain is obligated to fight France.

If the 75 was enough to totally dominate Germany why didn't they press their advantage earlier? In the Agadir Crisis for example France attended the conference because they didn't want war. Obviously it didn't work out for Germany but France's original position was not to attend until Germany threatened war.

What does the peace treaty look like? What happens to Italy, AH, Sweden?

Here are some threads about First Moroccan Crisis:

WI: The First Moroccan Crisis leads to World War 1?

Not the case at all, I'd say it's the opposite, the further back you go, the higher the advantage the Germans have. Why do I think this? The answer is simple: the Franco-Prussian war. A Prussia which had not fully unified Germany absolutely destroyed the French army with their modernized...

www.alternatehistory.com

What if Germany attacked France in 1905?

As you know, von Schlieffen asked for a preventive war against France in 1905. because Russia was occupied in Far East and german naval policy was clearly set for confrontation with UK. OTL Chancellor von Bulow and Kaiser refused to go into war. But, what if they decided to go into the war?

www.alternatehistory.com

In addition my understanding of French plans at the time was not that aggressive

The British are non players. The war is going to be over before the British can intervene. There is simply no BEF to send to the continent.

Britain isn't obligated if Japan declared war on France. The treaty only calls for "support" and there are weasel words to get out of it.

Once the Germans are defeated, the British are going to be in a pickle- the Franco-Russian alliance would be masters of the continent, control the continents fleets and be invulnerable.

Britain will have to accept whatever terms the French and Russians impose.

This is a real short war. It recreates the Napoleonic Wars

 

[Plundenoru]

What does the peace treaty look like? What happens to Italy, AH, Sweden?

If France doesn't get involved, I can see a rump Poland and Ukraine respectively in the German and Austro-Hungarian sphere of influence. Sweden might get Finland back if Germany allows it, otherwise a rump Finland is possible.
Italy is going to stay neutral as they don't really have anything to gain from this.

 

[Admiral Spaun]

How does the war play out? How mad is Nicholas? What does the peace look like? Do the neutral powers jump on this? How about revolution?

Russia would probably try to negotiate peace with Japan as fast as possible to ensure they don't have to fight a two front war, which probably means a very generous settlement for Japan. France would have to intervene in order to protect their one ally on the continent while Austria-Hungary would side with Germany. I don't see many neutrals getting involved due to internal issues (Sweden and China), being too weak (the Balkans and Persia), or not having a vested interest in the conflict (Italy and USA).

The war would probably end with a German victory in the East due to the terrible capabilities of the Russian Army and the instability of the Tsarist regime. Once the Tsar falls, the new government would probably sign a negotiated peace in order to deal with their own internal issues. Russia probably has to sign away Poland, Finland, and Lithuania to Germany, while they are able to keep Ukraine and the rest of the Baltics. There will certainly be a large amount of revanchism and nationalist sentiment post war in Russia and I expect another war against Germany would occur at some point in the future.

 

[RMcD94]

Once the Tsar falls, the new government would probably sign a negotiated peace in order to deal with their own internal issues.

Is there a reason they would accept negotiated peace instead of an unconditional surrender?

I don't see many neutrals getting involved due to internal issues (Sweden and China), being too weak (the Balkans and Persia), or not having a vested interest in the conflict (Italy and USA).

Aren't those internal issues a great reason to join an easy war to gain prestige? Sweden because the loss of Norway is on the horizon and reclaiming Finland is going to be a way for the government's and monarch to regain their prestige. China is in a similar situation where a relatively minor effort, say undoing the Treaty of Saint Petersburg or attempting to reclaim Vladivostok?

At this time after all there have been no Stolypin reforms so Russian Siberia is rather empty. Similarly they could fund Basmachi separatists.

Regarding Persia, with a simple declaration they get off scot free with all of the Russian funds and are no longer in debt, of course if the Russian state collapses it might be the case anyway but better to declare war as then Moscow can't try to claim ownership as a successor government.

Italy is in the Triple Alliance but I agree they'd probably stay out, especially if the Ottomans join in to reclaim Crimea or their Caucasus territories. Of course the USA would remain neutral unless something crazy happened.

 

[juanml82]

Is there a reason they would accept negotiated peace instead of an unconditional surrender?

The French army in their western borders, which may or may not attack Germany, because the UK may or may not intervene in Germany' side.

 

[Helmuth48]

Is there a reason they would accept negotiated peace instead of an unconditional surrender?


Aren't those internal issues a great reason to join an easy war to gain prestige? Sweden because the loss of Norway is on the horizon and reclaiming Finland is going to be a way for the government's and monarch to regain their prestige. China is in a similar situation where a relatively minor effort, say undoing the Treaty of Saint Petersburg or attempting to reclaim Vladivostok?

At this time after all there have been no Stolypin reforms so Russian Siberia is rather empty. Similarly they could fund Basmachi separatists.

Regarding Persia, with a simple declaration they get off scot free with all of the Russian funds and are no longer in debt, of course if the Russian state collapses it might be the case anyway but better to declare war as then Moscow can't try to claim ownership as a successor government.

Italy is in the Triple Alliance but I agree they'd probably stay out, especially if the Ottomans join in to reclaim Crimea or their Caucasus territories. Of course the USA would remain neutral unless something crazy happened.

When Germany starts a war against Russia in 1904, I think it lasted no more than a year. As in OTL, revolution will break out in Russia in 1905 (see 1905 Russian Revolution), as a result of which the Tsar will make a hasty peace to be able to put down the revolt (If it is not too late for that). Russia must in any case cede Poland, perhaps also the Baltic countries. If the Tsar is to resign, Finland will declare independence.

Germany will need at least half of its army to defend the border with France, in case France declares war on Germany. Probably France will do this, after reaching an agreement with the British: That Britain will remain neutral as long as the French do not take action in East Asia. After all, the British do not want Germany to become more dominant. However, I expect the French to be defeated in Lorraine.

Italy and Austria-Hungary are likely to remain neutral, as they have little to gain from this war. It is possible that the Ottoman Empire does join Germany, but this in turn could lead to Serbia, Bulgaria and Greece taking their chance to start war against the Ottomans. That will end in disaster for the Ottoman Empire.

 

[Admiral Spaun]

Is there a reason they would accept negotiated peace instead of an unconditional surrender?

Because the only way any Russian government will unconditionally surrender is if the Germans are at the Urals. The unconditional surrender of Germany and Japan during World War 2 was an exception rather than the rule.

Aren't those internal issues a great reason to join an easy war to gain prestige? Sweden because the loss of Norway is on the horizon and reclaiming Finland is going to be a way for the government's and monarch to regain their prestige. China is in a similar situation where a relatively minor effort, say undoing the Treaty of Saint Petersburg or attempting to reclaim Vladivostok?

Those internal issues would be the reason their governments couldn't get involved in the first place. Sweden was already dealing with a seperatist crisis in Norway and launching an unprovoked war against a stronger neighbor isn't exactly going to go down well with the voting public. The Chinese government was at its weakest point in centuries, just having come off the Boxer Rebellion, and any attempt to go to war against Russia would only fuel republican sentiments due to the fact that they would be completely destroyed by the Russians. In fact, I could see a failed war against Russia being the catalyst for an earlier Chinese Civil War.

Regarding Persia, with a simple declaration they get off scot free with all of the Russian funds and are no longer in debt, of course if the Russian state collapses it might be the case anyway but better to declare war as then Moscow can't try to claim ownership as a successor government.

Persia was basically a failed state in the early 20th century. The only reason they hadn't been annexed was because the British and Russians needed a buffer state between their empires. The only Persian military unit comparable to a European one was the Persian Cossack Brigade, a unit trained and commanded by Russians. Any attempt to stab Russia in the back would have resulted in the overthrow of the Qajar Dynasty and they knew it.

Italy is in the Triple Alliance but I agree they'd probably stay out, especially if the Ottomans join in to reclaim Crimea or their Caucasus territories. Of course the USA would remain neutral unless something crazy happened.

The Ottomans might get involved to take back Kars but only after it was clear the Germans were going to win. The Ottomans wouldn't have the ability to seize much territory beyond that due to the state of their own military and the importance of Baku to Russian industry.

The French army in their western borders, which may or may not attack Germany, because the UK may or may not intervene in Germany' side

The French would side with Russia due to their longstanding alliance and the clear aggression on the part of the Germans. The UK wouldn't intervene on Germany's behalf because A. France was less of a threat to British interests than Germany and B. Germany is the aggressor in this war.

 

[SenatorChickpea]

Read Ian Nish's The Anglo-Japanese Alliance, or PP O'Brien's edited collection. The point of the alliance was to allow Britain to divert resources from the east so it could reallocate them in Europe. It was to further their national interests.
Backing Germany as it attempted to become the dominant power in Europe would not only be against Britain's short term interests, it would be against the whole grain of British foreign policy for the past eight centuries.
It's not impossible that the alliance could have brought Britain in against France or Russia or both- but only if they were aggressors and the British public felt attacked. Here, Germany has betrayed its partner and embarked on a naked scheme of continental domination. No one in Britain wants that to succeed, and furthermore the Kaiser's actions show that you have to assume he'll attack any power that he thinks is vulnerable. So why ally with him?

Britain will wish the Japanese good luck and be done with it.