A Greater House of Islam

[johnreiter]

This is my attempt to increase the expansion of Islam as much as possible, using only plausible PODs. All these divergences are in the 8th century, and so should not be affected by butterflies

POD 1: the Muslims capture Constantinople in 718, and conquer the Byzantine Empire

POD 2: the Muslims with the Battle of Tours in 732, killing Charles Martel, and conquer France

As a result of these changes, the Muslims take over the Balkans in the 8th and 9th centuries, and the Arab invasion of Italy in the 840s is much more successful. With more support, the Arabs capture Rome in 846, and secure control over all of southern and central Italy, forcing the Pope the flee. The Lombard Kingdom holds out for a while, but surrounded on every side, it too is eventually conquered, and the Mediterranean becomes a Muslim lake by the end of the 9th century

What would this world look like further down the line? How would European, African, and Middle eastern history be different with the Muslim Caliphates being so much more successful?

 

[Nivek]

POD 2: the Muslims with the Battle of Tours in 732, killing Charles Martel, and conquer France

About this, the plan was never to conquer France, the plan was to teach the renegade Odo some manners and the plan was to beat septemania to get a land route to Rome....but if Charles the first usurper dies and the mayoral system in France enter In chaos...there would be some noise to going north that south.

 

[Lalli]

Most historians believe that Charles Martel faced only just some raiding Muslim troops whom hadn't any intentions to conquer France or even Southern France. There has been quiet lot of raids on that time. So Battle of Tours is historically quiet overrated.

 

[Nivek]

Most historians believe that Charles Martel faced only just some raiding Muslim troops whom hadn't any intentions to conquer France or even Southern France. There has been quiet lot of raids on that time. So Battle of Tours is historically quiet overrated.

In general, was just a mission to put Odo in line, but if Charles the usurper gets killed, the domino effect is titanic, regardless if the Muslim just retreat back to Andalus once Odo is deal with

 

[cmakk1012]

To be fair there’s a long and vaunted tradition of Muslim raids finding unexpected success and pushing on into an actual war of conquest (Egypt, Iberia, etc) and that could potentially happen in France as well.

 

[holycookie]

Most historians believe that Charles Martel faced only just some raiding Muslim troops whom hadn't any intentions to conquer France or even Southern France. There has been quiet lot of raids on that time. So Battle of Tours is historically quiet overrated.

the battle gave charles martell legitimacy to be seen as a leader. If I'm not mistaken, the Arabs had 25 thousand and the Franks 20 thousand.

To be fair there’s a long and vaunted tradition of Muslim raids finding unexpected success and pushing on into an actual war of conquest (Egypt, Iberia, etc) and that could potentially happen in France as well.

yes, the question is to see if it is possible to hold this region, or it will be lost in a similar way to ibeira.

the Arabs as well as the Mongols were conquering nomads. Unlike the Mongols, they tended not to adapt to the local culture, preferring to change it. Perhaps that is why there was no Arab empire that lasted as long as the Ottomans. the heritability system doesn't help either.

 

[Shutenmaru]

Most historians believe that Charles Martel faced only just some raiding Muslim troops whom hadn't any intentions to conquer France or even Southern France. There has been quiet lot of raids on that time. So Battle of Tours is historically quiet overrated.

Raids were always precursors to actual invasions. If Tours ends up being successful it would be followed up with bigger raids and maybe even further conquests.

If you can butterfly away the Great Berber Revolt then the momentum in Al-Andalus may not slow down and the Arabs here would be in an even better position to keep expanding. With Spain and France entirely Muslim then who knows what would happen in the Low Countries or Germany. Maybe over the centuries missionaries and merchants spread Islam even further into Europe or into the British Isles.

With Constantinople taken then the Balkans and Russia will certainly end up Muslim over a centuries long process of Sufi proselytization, trade linkages, and locally converted Muslims creating their own expansionary states and converting their neighbours (Rus almost converted to Islam OTL after all). That was a typical pattern in Islamic expansion. Arabs come and convert the locals. The locals become imbued with a zeal for jihad and then create expansionary states that convert their neighbours. Happened in West Africa, India, Indonesia, Central Asia etc. It would happen in Europe as well.

Less talked about PoDs include East and South East Asia as well. Have the Champa Kingdom defeat the Vietnamese and Islam can spread here as well. Without the Spanish the Philippines would also remain Muslim. Maybe have some Indonesian state become more prolific sea-farers that settle Australia. Merchants and missionaries from Al-Andalus could also convert the people of the Kongo and the various tribes of South Africa. If Andalus or Islamic France discover the New World then Islam expands even further here.

China or India are also wild-cards. The Umayyads launched an invasion of Central India against Chalaukyas after conquering Sindh that failed, maybe have it be successful. If Islam breaks through in India several centuries prior to the Turkic Ghaznavids/Ghaurids/Delhi Sultans then Islam may be even more entrenched. Pakistan for example had a few centuries longer under Islamic rule than the rest of India allowing it to be majority Muslim. There are some notable PoDs here that can be explored like the Kabul Shahis being defeated earlier.

China does have a very long history of Islamic presence, I can imagine that if Islam spread into Central Asia and somehow the Mongols adopted it. Then when the Mongols invade China Islam spreads that way. Or perhaps a certain Chinese Emperor becomes infatuated with Islam and tries to spread it among his people.

 

[Nivek]

Raids were always precursors to actual invasions

Yeah more if said raid cause a lot of chaos, and nice ideas buddy

 

[funnyhat]

Most historians believe that Charles Martel faced only just some raiding Muslim troops whom hadn't any intentions to conquer France or even Southern France. There has been quiet lot of raids on that time. So Battle of Tours is historically quiet overrated.

The Arabs already occupied Septimania by the time of the battle, and fought hard (until 759) to hang on to it.

I don't know what their intentions were in 732, but given what had happened in the preceding 100 years, I would not assume it was only for raiding. Why would they decide that the lands north of Septimania were unworthy of conquest, when there is no natural border there?

 

[johnreiter]

To be fair there’s a long and vaunted tradition of Muslim raids finding unexpected success and pushing on into an actual war of conquest (Egypt, Iberia, etc) and that could potentially happen in France as well.

Raids were always precursors to actual invasions. If Tours ends up being successful it would be followed up with bigger raids and maybe even further conquests.

This is exactly how I felt. The Frankish Kingdom will go the same way as the Visigoth Kingdom. With Charles Martel dead, and his forces wiped out, France is helpless and ripe for conquest.

If you can butterfly away the Great Berber Revolt then the momentum in Al-Andalus may not slow down and the Arabs here would be in an even better position to keep expanding. With Spain and France entirely Muslim then who knows what would happen in the Low Countries or Germany. Maybe over the centuries missionaries and merchants spread Islam even further into Europe or into the British Isles.

I never considered the Great Berber Revolt. I confess that I though it was inevitable, and I also did not understand how badly it impacted Andalusian civilization. What would be the best ways of preventing it?

Muslim France, due to it's excellent geography and greater unity that medieval France. is going to be a powerhouse in Europe. I would not be surprised to see them conquer Angleland, and even Germania (unless Muslim Hungarians and Bulgarians from the Balkans conquer it first).

With Constantinople taken then the Balkans and Russia will certainly end up Muslim over a centuries long process of Sufi proselytization, trade linkages, and locally converted Muslims creating their own expansionary states and converting their neighbours (Rus almost converted to Islam OTL after all). That was a typical pattern in Islamic expansion. Arabs come and convert the locals. The locals become imbued with a zeal for jihad and then create expansionary states that convert their neighbours. Happened in West Africa, India, Indonesia, Central Asia etc. It would happen in Europe as well.

I considered adding a POD that Tsar Vladimir the Great embraces Islam instead of Christianity, but decided that it would be a likely butterfly affect anyway. I like your description of Muslim colonization and proselytization. I have another thread where I discussed the likely consequences of Khashkhash Ibn Saeed Ibn Aswad discovering the New World in 889. I imagined that muslim merchants from Morocco and Andalusia would set up trading posts, which would convert the coastal natives to Islam, and that those native nations would then buy advanced weapons and use them to conquer their non-muslim neighbors. I did suspect that, given how expansionist they were, that when the Berbers came to power in Morocco they would nationalize the colonies and try to build their own colonial empire.

I also had a POD in that timeline that King Abu Bakr of Mali actually succeeds in circumnavigating the globe and discovers the straights of Magellan in 1311. This leads to the establishment of west African trading posts in South America and the pacific.

Less talked about PoDs include East and South East Asia as well. Have the Champa Kingdom defeat the Vietnamese and Islam can spread here as well. Without the Spanish the Philippines would also remain Muslim. Maybe have some Indonesian state become more prolific sea-farers that settle Australia. Merchants and missionaries from Al-Andalus could also convert the people of the Kongo and the various tribes of South Africa. If Andalus or Islamic France discover the New World then Islam expands even further here.

China or India are also wild-cards. The Umayyads launched an invasion of Central India against Chalaukyas after conquering Sindh that failed, maybe have it be successful. If Islam breaks through in India several centuries prior to the Turkic Ghaznavids/Ghaurids/Delhi Sultans then Islam may be even more entrenched. Pakistan for example had a few centuries longer under Islamic rule than the rest of India allowing it to be majority Muslim. There are some notable PoDs here that can be explored like the Kabul Shahis being defeated earlier.

China does have a very long history of Islamic presence, I can imagine that if Islam spread into Central Asia and somehow the Mongols adopted it. Then when the Mongols invade China Islam spreads that way. Or perhaps a certain Chinese Emperor becomes infatuated with Islam and tries to spread it among his people.

I considered adding a POD where Champa conquers Die Viet, but I'm not familiar enough with East Asian history to know when would be the best time. I also considered adding a POD where Tamerlane conquers China, as that seemed to be the best point for China to become a Muslim nation. I discarded the idea because It was too far in the future, and I though people would complain that butterfly affects would make it unlikely.

I was very interested in your comments on the Umayyad invasion of India. I never heard about it before. i considered India a done deal originally, because they were eventually conquered by the Mughals and became a Muslim nation. But it could certainly happen tat the Umayyads conquer them earlier, and that might make Islam even stronger in southern Asia.

 

[holycookie]

I never considered the Great Berber Revolt. I confess that I though it was inevitable, and I also did not understand how badly it impacted Andalusian civilization. What would be the best ways of preventing it?

The underlying causes of the revolt were the policies of the Umayyad governors in Kairouan, Ifriqiya, who had authority over the Maghreb (all of North Africa west of Egypt) and al-Andalus.
From the early days of the Muslim conquest of North Africa, Arab commanders had treated non-Arab (notably Berber) auxiliaries inconsistently, and often rather shabbily. When they arrived in North Africa the Umayyads had to face a Christian-majority population in Africa Proconsularis (which became Ifriqiya, modern-day Tunisia) and pagans in the Maghreb al-Aqsa (now Morocco) with Jewish minorities. Some Berbers of the Maghreb quickly converted and participated in the growth of Islam in the region, but the Arab authorities continued to treat them as second-class people.
Although Berbers had undertaken much of the fighting in the Umayyad conquest of Hispania, they were given a lesser share of the spoils and frequently assigned to the harsher duties (e.g. Berbers were thrown into the vanguard while Arab forces were kept in the back; they were assigned garrison duty on the more troubled frontiers). Although the Ifriqiyan Arab governor Musa ibn Nusair had cultivated his Berber lieutenants (most famously, Tariq ibn Ziyad), his successors, notably Yazid ibn Abi Muslim, had treated their Berber forces particularly poorly.
Most grievously, Arab governors continued to levy extraordinary dhimmi taxation (the jizyah and kharaj) and slave-tributes on non-Arab populations that had converted to Islam, in direct contravention of Islamic law. This had become particularly routine during the caliphates of Walid I and Sulayman.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berber_Revolt#:~:text=The underlying causes of the,Egypt) and al-Andalus.

Basically Arabs have to stop treating non-Arabs as second class citizens. This was hard to come by, and it caused the downfall of the Umayyads. So it's not something that can be solved simply. The caliphate had too many ethnic problems.

 

[Jürgen]

This is exactly how I felt. The Frankish Kingdom will go the same way as the Visigoth Kingdom. With Charles Martel dead, and his forces wiped out, France is helpless and ripe for conquest.

I don’t really see any indication of that in Frankish history. I expect that the Franks will start infighting and if they see the invaders as big enough threat they will unite.

As a I see it the main population center of the Franks is along the Rhine and what the Muslim invaders threaten is the periphery of their kingdom.

 

[Nivek]

I don’t really see any indication of that in Frankish history. I expect that the Franks will start infighting and if they see the invaders as big enough threat they will unite.

As a I see it the main population center of the Franks is along the Rhine and what the Muslim invaders threaten is the periphery of their kingdom.

Both Muslims and franks have a wild card for either favour,the Merovingians,after years of slowly becoming the slaves of the pippiniads and their bastards,now they got a golden chance to turn the table using the Muslim against all the pippiniads childrens or using the chaos to get back to the top

 

[Shutenmaru]

This is exactly how I felt. The Frankish Kingdom will go the same way as the Visigoth Kingdom. With Charles Martel dead, and his forces wiped out, France is helpless and ripe for conquest.

I never considered the Great Berber Revolt. I confess that I though it was inevitable, and I also did not understand how badly it impacted Andalusian civilization. What would be the best ways of preventing it?

Basically make the Umayyads less racist. They even levied the dhimmi tax on non-Arabs that had converted to Islam. This was a reason they were overthrown by the Abbasids who had big Persian support too. Maybe find an alternate way for the Umayyads to finance their Caliphate that doesn't rely on enforcing jizya tax on Muslims. Make Umayyads less racist towards the Berbers

Muslim France, due to it's excellent geography and greater unity that medieval France. is going to be a powerhouse in Europe. I would not be surprised to see them conquer Angleland, and even Germania (unless Muslim Hungarians and Bulgarians from the Balkans conquer it first).

I considered adding a POD that Tsar Vladimir the Great embraces Islam instead of Christianity, but decided that it would be a likely butterfly affect anyway. I like your description of Muslim colonization and proselytization. I have another thread where I discussed the likely consequences of Khashkhash Ibn Saeed Ibn Aswad discovering the New World in 889. I imagined that muslim merchants from Morocco and Andalusia would set up trading posts, which would convert the coastal natives to Islam, and that those native nations would then buy advanced weapons and use them to conquer their non-muslim neighbors. I did suspect that, given how expansionist they were, that when the Berbers came to power in Morocco they would nationalize the colonies and try to build their own colonial empire.

There is a very good TL on this forum called Moonlight in a Jar that is about surviving Al-Andalus discovering and colonizing the New World. It basically does have this same premise where the Otomi People in Mesoamerica convert to Islam and then conquer their neighbours creating their own Emirate in the region. Moors discovering the New World in the 9th century will transform the Americas. It will take less than a century for things like smallpox immunity, horses, iron weapons to spread as far south as Peru and as far north as the Great Plains.

I also had a POD in that timeline that King Abu Bakr of Mali actually succeeds in circumnavigating the globe and discovers the straights of Magellan in 1311. This leads to the establishment of west African trading posts in South America and the pacific.

Another very interesting PoD. Though I am unsure how technologically advanced the Malians were compared to North African or European competitors in this time-period.

I considered adding a POD where Champa conquers Die Viet, but I'm not familiar enough with East Asian history to know when would be the best time. I also considered adding a POD where Tamerlane conquers China, as that seemed to be the best point for China to become a Muslim nation. I discarded the idea because It was too far in the future, and I though people would complain that butterfly affects would make it unlikely.

Islam has played a very big role in Chinese history. Read up on things like the Panthay Revolt, the Dungan Revolt, Ispah Revolt to learn about how prevalent Islam was in some parts of China. Then of course everyone knows about Zheng He so Muslims did hold prominent positions in Chinese history as well. If we have earlier Islamic conquest of India and Central Asia and then by extension Siberia and Mongolia, then Tamerlane may be butterflied away entirely and in his stead a Muslim Steppe Horde may be the ones to conquer China in lieu of the Mongols or Jurchens.

Having Tamerlane conquer the Ming may be problematic because at this point in history the Ming were at the absolute height of their power.

I was very interested in your comments on the Umayyad invasion of India. I never heard about it before. i considered India a done deal originally, because they were eventually conquered by the Mughals and became a Muslim nation. But it could certainly happen tat the Umayyads conquer them earlier, and that might make Islam even stronger in southern Asia.

India was conquered by Muslims but today is only 15% Muslim. My ideas were to allow Islam to become a majority in India.

Umayyad campaigns in India - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[Nivek]

Basically make the Umayyads less racist.

Less greedy,they usefully used the Syriac and Tripolitanian as nobility but their push for more money was their downfall.

 

[Silver01]

This is exactly how I felt. The Frankish Kingdom will go the same way as the Visigoth Kingdom. With Charles Martel dead, and his forces wiped out, France is helpless and ripe for conquest.

I don't think it's true unlike Spain frankia was not as centralized and not in the midst of a civil war which would make it harder to conquer

 

[holycookie]

I don't think it's true unlike Spain frankia was not as centralized and not in the midst of a civil war which would make it harder to conquer

I agree with you, umayyads don't have a cheat code. It is already incredible to see the size of the empire in this short time (OTL). In order for the Umayyads to be able to make such achievements they have to basically be another caliphate. The entire caliphate prefers an ethnic group, with the first two caliphates being Arabs, the third preferring persian culture, the fourth and last being the most successful Caliphate, prefer Turks.
Andalus had this ethnic problem that disturbed the nation a lot with Spaniards vs Arabs vs Berbers
It has the problem of succession as well, with several "caliphates" lasting less than 100 years. I don't know why they had so many civil wars (if anyone can enlighten me I would appreciate it). As we saw in Spain, the emirate/caliphate lost the Christian kingdoms not because they were weaker than the christians, but because the country literally imploded. This can happen in France with Muslims staying in part of the country for a while and being expelled afterwards.

 

[Zygmunt Stary]

Hungarians

It's not certain that they'll even come to Europe ITTL and them coming to Pannonia was directly tied to Eastern Frankish politics and now Eastern Frankish kingdom is non-existent (because of OG Frankish kingdom being destroyed before it could even subdue Old Saxony) and Franks won't destroy Avar khaganate (idk if any local Slavic polity could be enough to destroy it), so Avars might be around for a little longer (tho most likely they'd go Slavic as Bulgarians did before them and IOTL remnants of Avars did assimilate into Slavic population), Sorbs will take over Thuringia all the way to the Rhine if central Frankish government will collapse, preventing the chance for unified German nation - surviving Old Saxony will be closer to Scandinavians, while Bavarians will isolate. It's possible that something like Sorbian tribal union (IOTL Charlemagne destroyed it) will be formed sooner by absorbing former Frankish lands and thus Frankish know-how about how to run the state.

 

[Nivek]

It's not certain that they'll even come to Europe ITTL and them coming to Pannonia was directly tied to Eastern Frankish politics and now Eastern Frankish kingdom is non-existent (because of OG Frankish kingdom being destroyed before it could even subdue Old Saxony) and Franks won't destroy Avar khaganate (idk if any local Slavic polity could be enough to destroy it), so Avars might be around for a little longer (tho most likely they'd go Slavic as Bulgarians did before them and IOTL remnants of Avars did assimilate into Slavic population), Sorbs will take over Thuringia all the way to the Rhine if central Frankish government will collapse, preventing the chance for unified German nation - surviving Old Saxony will be closer to Scandinavians, while Bavarians will isolate. It's possible that something like Sorbian tribal union (IOTL Charlemagne destroyed it) will be formed sooner by absorbing former Frankish lands and thus Frankish know-how about how to run the state.

So Europe Become more unique if the Franks got destroyed? That's a very good residual butterfly of killing charles the usurper(both of them)

 

[Silver01]

It's not certain that they'll even come to Europe ITTL and them coming to Pannonia was directly tied to Eastern Frankish politics and now Eastern Frankish kingdom is non-existent (because of OG Frankish kingdom being destroyed before it could even subdue Old Saxony) and Franks won't destroy Avar khaganate (idk if any local Slavic polity could be enough to destroy it), so Avars might be around for a little longer (tho most likely they'd go Slavic as Bulgarians did before them and IOTL remnants of Avars did assimilate into Slavic population), Sorbs will take over Thuringia all the way to the Rhine if central Frankish government will collapse, preventing the chance for unified German nation - surviving Old Saxony will be closer to Scandinavians, while Bavarians will isolate. It's possible that something like Sorbian tribal union (IOTL Charlemagne destroyed it) will be formed sooner by absorbing former Frankish lands and thus Frankish know-how about how to run the state.

to be fair saxony was to the north and if an alt Charlemagne equivalent still exist he would be to busy attacking the Muslims ( assuming they took chunks out of souther france) than going to attack panonia , depending of the pod that could meant he bulgars expand more in to the avar khagante as Krum destroyed the eastern remant that Charles didn't attack