I was wondering what it would take to get a world where modern Ireland is under a monarchy, while Great Britain is under republican government. Considering how hard this is, the POD can be any time after the Norman invasion of Ireland.
AHC: A monarchist Ireland and a Republican Britain
- Thread starter Enigmajones
- Start date
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Gone Fishin'
Following the Glorious Revolution, James II and the Old Pretender manage to land and reclaim Ireland, with French support. A hundred years later, in the wave of revolutions in 1848, the British monarchy falls and the Commonwealth is resurrected.
A major European Catholic power intervenes in the Irish Confederate Wars, preventing Cromwell's reconquest, and allowing a Catholic Stuart monarchy to be established there under the Old English aristocracies terms, with the real power belonging to a Supreme Council of notable Lords and Catholic clergy. The English royalists find themsleves under the rule of the native Irish, though their Anglicanism is vaguely tolerated, at least at first. This success, however, forever dashes any hope the Stuarts have of being welcomed back to Britain, and the English Commonwealth persists, with parliament taking advantage of the weak Richard Cromwell to resassert power.
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Here's an outside idea, following the Norman Invasion the Irish chieftans band together and elect a King to kick the Normans out. They solidify their Kingdom and adopt feudalism and begin marrying into France. The Gaelic language adopts a few Latin words and becomes an equivalent to otl English. Then we could have an Anglo-Saxon revival and cause England to become more decentralized. Eventually the English monarchy is more of a Confederation with the Monarch eventually being replaced by an elected leader.
Um the time between the Glorious Revolution, Jacobite Wars, and 1848 Revolutions is a long time. That's a long time for things go according to otl.
Plus 1848 was a direct consequence of the circumstances from the post-Napoleonic era. The Napoleonic wars were a consequence of the French Revolution which was a consequence of Britain's success against France in its colonial wars which saw Franc bankrupted. Even then the Revolution was not really fated to occur.
If say England is taken by the Jacobites by an invasions sponsored by Louis XIV, you could probably see a UK that's unstable and on the verge of civil war. This civil war would more likely see Parliament offer the throne to another protestant though rather than another turn to Republicanism. Still this could end up with the Jacobins pushed to Irelands supported by its Catholic population.
This is a really cool scenario. I don't think it will take long before the Stuarts marry into and convert/revert to Catholicism (probably with some special status within Catholicism)... or for the "Anglican" Church to simply become Irish. Meanwhile, in England, Parliament might just do away with the office of Lord Protector entirely.A major European Catholic power intervenes in the Irish Confederate Wars, preventing Cromwell's reconquest, and allowing a Catholic Stuart monarchy to be established there under the Old English aristocracies terms, with the real power belonging to a Supreme Council of notable Lords and Catholic clergy. The English royalists find themsleves under the rule of the native Irish, though their Anglicanism is vaguely tolerated, at least at first. This success, however, forever dashes any hope the Stuarts have of being welcomed back to Britain, and the English Commonwealth persists, with parliament taking advantage of the weak Richard Cromwell to resassert power.
With a POD in the mid-1600s I do wonder how this ends up affecting the English (and Irish) New World ambitions.
The Cromwell regime wasn't really politically sustainable, and it wasn't really a functional republic as it was pretty much a naked dictatorship. Cromwell was a King in all but name except he was too proud/fixated on Republican ideals that he refused a Crown. The politically astute move for him would have been to take the Crown.
Though this wouldn't have been without protests/opposition as there were still Stuart Legitimists within Britain. Plus in the 17th Century, monarchism was very much the dominant ideology with things like Republicanism being seen as a fringe ideology for city-states ruled by the merchant class. Within Europe where landed magnates/nobles ruled there was a bit of skepticism/contempt towards merchants/tradesman. This would have probably extended towards ideas of a Republic, then seen as a fringe ideology.
I don't see this pod as very likely for a Republican Britain.
Maybe in an alternate French Revolution, where the Revolutionary government has a single brain cell it doesn't neglect the French Navy letting its ships rot in its harbors. Assuming Napoleon takes over as per otl, he now has a fleet capable to rival Britain. The French Navy prior to the Revolution was a peer rival for the UK. One of the main threats during the Revolutionary War/Seven Years War was the fear that there would be a Franco-Spanish invasion of England while the Royal Navy was spread thin fighting. France and Spain tried planning this at various times only to be foiled by things like poor-timing, or bad weather. One consequence of the Napoleonic Wars was that it gutted the fleets of Britain's other potential rivals allowing Britannia to "rule the waves" for the next century.
In this alternate timeline Napoleon has a navy which he reforms much like he did with the army and manages to coordinate with Spain. This leads to Napoleon mounting an invasion into Ireland after subduing Europe. Napoleon's troops is met with Irish rebels allowing him to establish a Jacobite Pretender or another candidate (a relative or French marshal perhaps) as a puppets on its throne. Meanwhile the UK is thrown into chaos. If Napoleon somehow lands in the UK you could maybe see the Royal family flee to Canada perhaps with a series of puppet states being formed in England. Either the British Empire is shattered. As the years go by, you could maybe see some sort of idea for a resurrected commonwealth form with Britain growing resentful of Napoleonic France's occupation. The French Empire's troops would probably eventually leave to focus on continental affairs as it would have other more pressing issues such as the Russian Empire to deal with.
You would need the Commonwealth of England to last, and in order for that to happen it must be run by Parliament not Cromwell or another Lord Protector, so you need to avert Pride's Purge or any other military coups. To do so, John Hampden and/or John Pym must live on, or, the English Civil War must get worse and Charles must end up being wholly blamed for that (there was a very good TL for the latter scenario which involved Cromwell going to New England).
Republican Britain could easily exploit Franco-Spanish and later Franco-Dutch conflicts to prevent being jointly attacked by a coalition of monarchies. In addition, Austria and Russia were too far away to materially affect Britain, so the only key existential enemies would be France and Spain, which were not exactly allies during the 17th century. It could also exploit religious issues as well to find allies in Europe.
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