China WI: Oirats march on Beijing

[Hrvatskiwi]

So I am currently reading Peter C. Perdue's excellent book China Marches West: The Qing Conquest of Central Eurasia and came across something interesting.

Apparently, during the Ming dynasty, the Oirats had an effective non-Genghisid chieftain by the name of Esen, who captured the Zhengtong Emperor at Tumu in 1449. Instead of marching on Beijing, which Perdue claims would have been relatively easy (later it was not so), Esen extorted 20,000 taels of silk from the garrison commander at Dating. Perdue uses this incident to question whether Esen really wanted to recreate Genghis' Empire.

IOTL, Esen did return two months later, but this had given Yu Qian, the emperor's regent, the time to mount a capable defense. Esen saw the siege was futile, and abandoned it.

But what if Esen did have the inclination to create an ersatz-Yuan dynasty? If he descended on Beijing after Tumu could he have easily seized the city? And would be have a chance to take direct control over at least Northern China?

 

[XFE]

This could go both ways. On one hand, China is a big place, even if things go south, the Mongols will still have to push through many lines of defences. the local Han would also be fiercely against Mongol rule, as Yuan rule was still vivid in the national consciousness. I'd say the best scenario for Esen would be to release the Zhengtong Emperor back to China, then stir up the succession crisis between the Zhengtong Emperor and his brother. If lucky, Esen can rush in as the Ming collapses into a civil war then hold the north of China.

 

[Wendell]

Does this butterfly away the migration of the Kalmyks to Russia?

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

Does this butterfly away the migration of the Kalmyks to Russia?

Given that the Kalmyks migrated in 1607, yes it would.

 

[MonAngel]

But what if Esen did have the inclination to create an ersatz-Yuan dynasty? If he descended on Beijing after Tumu could he have easily seized the city? And would be have a chance to take direct control over at least Northern China?

In short NO.
Esen's force wasn't mean to conquer China. It was meant to raid and raze Chinese border cities to punish Ming for its policy toward Mongolia. So it can't sustain long term total war/invasion. Moreover Ming was stable and far stronger than Mongolia at this time.
Esen might take Beijing but he can't hold it. Best he can do is take Manchuria through negotiation.
The Problem is Esen wanted to be Great Khaan but he was not chingisid prince. This means Mongolian nobles won't obey him fully. Ming knew it. Since Ming is far powerful and wealthy than Mongolia, they won't negotiate with Esen. Ming will just wait until East Mongolians and Oirats start fighting each other.

I'd say the best scenario for Esen would be to release the Zhengtong Emperor back to China, then stir up the succession crisis between the Zhengtong Emperor and his brother. If lucky, Esen can rush in as the Ming collapses into a civil war then hold the north of China.

Agree. But only if campaign was headed by Great Khaan and Esen playing role of "Subotai". But they still need to win another battle and crush Ming army this time sent by Jingtai Emperor. Then they can install Zhengtong as Emperor and stir up civil war.

 

[Wendell]

Given that the Kalmyks migrated in 1607, yes it would.

That might have interesting demographic consequences for the greater North Caucasus region.

 

[Avrorrange]

In short NO.
Esen's force wasn't mean to conquer China. It was meant to raid and raze Chinese border cities to punish Ming for its policy toward Mongolia. So it can't sustain long term total war/invasion. Moreover Ming was stable and far stronger than Mongolia at this time.
Esen might take Beijing but he can't hold it. Best he can do is take Manchuria through negotiation.
The Problem is Esen wanted to be Great Khaan but he was not chingisid prince. This means Mongolian nobles won't obey him fully. Ming knew it. Since Ming is far powerful and wealthy than Mongolia, they won't negotiate with Esen. Ming will just wait until East Mongolians and Oirats start fighting each other.



Agree. But only if campaign was headed by Great Khaan and Esen playing role of "Subotai". But they still need to win another battle and crush Ming army this time sent by Jingtai Emperor. Then they can install Zhengtong as Emperor and stir up civil war.

Basically,the Ming version of Manzikert.