Without gaining the French lands, rump France wouldn't have been as irridentist as OTL, particularly after the Revolution of 1826 and the restoration of the French Empire with the return of Napoleon II. Of course, butterflying the Second French Empire probably means that nothing analogous to the Wars of French Aggression occurs, and thus France won't be fully occupied by the Grand Coalition and dismembered in 1841.
If Prussia doesn't get Provence, it really depends on why. If Napoleon I stays in power and is fully victorious in his wars, Prussia could be reduced to a Polish duchy once more, perhaps... If the CoV goes differently, it'll probably get German lands (Saxony, the Rhine, maybe even the Baltic States) and will probably still manage to be a leading German state, though uniting Northern Germany might not happen, and Wittemhaeuser's great plan to carve a corridor through Bavarian and Baden to connect to Provence would certainly be avoided.