Demographics of a surviving Austria-Hungary?

[Tibi088]

That gives me an idea: maybe political Catholicism would have become the glue that holds the empire together. The Hapsburgs would point out that ethnonationalism is barbaric and pagan, and a multinational, multiethnic empire where everyone (Catholic or not) acknowledges Catholic social teaching is best at fostering peace and unity. Maybe the empire declares Latin the language of the bureaucracy to further strengthen this legitimacy.

That would win over the loyalty of the Poles, Galicians, Slovaks, and Croatians.

German-speaking Austrians would be encouraged to see themselves as Catholics who speak German, and who enjoy the freedom of worship in contrast to Bavarians who suffer through kulturkampf.

Romanians would be encouraged (through various subtle measures) to join Romanian Greek Catholic Churches to create a distinction with the people on the other side of the Transylvanian mountains. Over time the Transylvanians would see themselves as separate from the "other" Romanians, the way that the Flemish see themselves as separate from the Dutch.

Hungarians would be a "nation within the nation" a similar way that Quebec is within Canada. The average Hungarian would in general only interact with institutions bearing the crown of St. Stephen, so this ideology would be toned down within the Kingdom of Hungary.

There would be subtle social pressure for non-Catholics to convert to Catholicism if they wanted to seek higher political office.

I do see scope for conflict with this ideology, though. First, the Russian and German empires will constantly suspect AH has designs on Poland and southern Germany, respectively. Second, AH would be seen as an ideological threat to the anti-clerical regimes of France and Italy. Third, while the Poles will prefer living under the Hapsburgs than the other two empires, they will still prefer that *all* of Catholic Poland be united - either under the Hapsburgs or independently. AH will need a powerful ally to guarantee its security - and what better one than the UK, which absolutely loves such games?


Maybe the Russian Empire will intentionally encourage Jewish emigration to AH, since they now have a convenient "dumping ground" for their "problem". Maybe they would even think this "problem" would undermine an imperial rival.

If that takes hold, then my previously described ideology would come under pressure. A refugee influx of that scale would cause tension in even the most tolerant and liberal societies.

Not going to work. At least not the way you propose. First there are a lot of othodox people in the Empire, not just the romanians - like serbs and part of the ukrainians. Than there are the jews and the muslims of Bosnia, and there are lutherans and calvinists in Hungary. Pushing a catholic agenda wont go down well with any of these.

Whats more we are far too late in time for religion to be the main identity forming element for the masses in Austria. The alternate for nationalism by this time was socialism which wanted people to identify along class lines instead of nations - and it failed completly by WWI. Maybe if we got an earlier and stronger christian socialist movement (it was already strong in Austria) that could have a positive effect - but I dont think that you can supplant nationalism as one of the defining ideologies - you would need a much earlier POD.

 

[kreepysam]

There's a book on my to-read list, "The idea of Galicia", a lot of it can be read on Google books.

Pre-war there was already large Jewish immigration from Russia, mainly to Eastern Galicia. Eastern Galicians in turn would migrate to the cities. They were firecly pro Hapburg, understandable as the alternative is seen as being barely out of barbarianism.

Do you know how many of those immigrants on-transited through Galicia eventually to leave Europe? I know OTL a lot of Galicians went to America, but I don't know what percentage of those were ethnic Ruthenians and Poles v Ashkenazim.

If central Europe becomes, instead of a place that Jews seek to leave, a. magnet attracting Jews, then yes, not just Vienna but most of the major cities of the empire will acquire relatively and absolutely large Jewish populations. The Jews of Hungary were reportedly one of the manor groups most prone to accept Magyarization; Budapest will look very different.

One wonders whether, if alt-Budapest becomes a homogenised city that acculturates its Jews, then maybe alt-Vienna/Pressburg becomes the centre of Yiddish culture in Europe? Maybe over time Vienna becomes split between a liberal German-assimilated, middle class and Hasidic/Orthdox Jewish class from the Pale (similar to OTL Brooklyn).

Possibly Central Europe could become both.

It's cheaper to get a train ticket from Kiev to Vienna (or Berlin) than a train ticket to Odessa and a ship ticket to New York. But for the richer populations of Germany and A-H, there could be continued migration to the US and Palestine. It may also be that the German-speaking empires act as a stepping-stone for people making their way from the unfriendly environment of the Pale to their eventual goals (and as is the nature of these things, some of these through-migrants will get settled and abandon their original plans to live in Vienna, Budapest or Berlin).

Especially if, say, the US imposes immigration limits on people coming from Russian/former Russian territory, but "good hard working Germans" are still allowed in without limit, so Jews might be going to an Austria-Hungary that welcomes them due to them being seen as pro-Hapsburg, plan to stay long enough to make a nest egg, learn some German (and maybe even some English) before heading to the US to present themselves as good German Jews.

fasquardon

Yes, if the AH cities start from this point they might eventually build into a destination of first choice, especially if going to America requires adopting English, versus keeping Yiddish or German as a lingua franca in AH.

Maybe the Russian Empire will intentionally encourage Jewish emigration to AH, since they now have a convenient "dumping ground" for their "problem". Maybe they would even think this "problem" would undermine an imperial rival.

If that takes hold, then my previously described ideology would come under pressure. A refugee influx of that scale would cause tension in even the most tolerant and liberal societies.

AH itself carried some antisemitism in the period, and the mayor of Vienna in the 1890s was an open antisemite IIRC. The US may be bit more appealing if you'd just be jumping out of the frypan and into the fire so to speak.

It is not clear to me that Palestine will necessarily be that attractive, especially if Austria-Hungary is sufficiently stable and prosperous to be a destination in its own right.

It probably won't enjoy the same level of immigration as OTL but I imagine a steady stream, depending on the course of antisemitism in Europe.

 

[marathag]

Brno/Brünn (140km from Vienna) would be no more part of the Greater Vienna metropolitan area than Rouen (135km from Paris) or Reims (145km from Paris) are part of the Paris metropolitan area. 2 hours one way is simply too long to commute. Even

That's 90 miles.

It's not unheard of for those in Palm Springs to commute deep in Los Angeles or Long Beach, that's over 110 miles, and under 2hours by car, not rail as would probably be the case over there.

 

[EternalCynic]

Vienna and Budapest would be connected by high-speed rail and would be less than one hour from each other. The corridor between them would be a continuous urbanized strip. Pressburg, Brünn, and Graz would all become satellite cities of Vienna, the same way that the TGV has turned Lille, Rheims, Orleans, and Tours into satellites of Paris.

 

[JanWellem]

Vienna and Budapest would be connected by high-speed rail and would be less than one hour from each other. The corridor between them would be a continuous urbanized strip. Pressburg, Brünn, and Graz would all become satellite cities of Vienna, the same way that the TGV has turned Lille, Rheims, Orleans, and Tours into satellites of Paris.

Yet neither of the latter cities is considered part of the Paris metro area, at least not the maps I've seen thus far.

 

[EternalCynic]

Yet neither of the latter cities is considered part of the Paris metro area, at least not the maps I've seen thus far.

Not part of the Ile de France, but they're well within a daily commute to Paris, and Parisians have responded accordingly. So, there's no reason to think this won't happen in AH-Vienna.

 

[fasquardon]

That gives me an idea: maybe political Catholicism would have become the glue that holds the empire together. The Hapsburgs would point out that ethnonationalism is barbaric and pagan, and a multinational, multiethnic empire where everyone (Catholic or not) acknowledges Catholic social teaching is best at fostering peace and unity. Maybe the empire declares Latin the language of the bureaucracy to further strengthen this legitimacy.

Do you really think Jews, Muslims and various kinds of Orthodox and Protestant Christian are going to be comfortable with the Pope's social rulings? Heck, even the Emperor didn't agree with the Pope most of the time.

Also, after all the trouble the Hapsburgs went through to change the official language of the Empire away from Latin to German, I don't see them changing back. They'd lose the utility German as an official language had and they'd upset everyone all over again and look foolish besides.

It is not clear to me that Palestine will necessarily be that attractive, especially if Austria-Hungary is sufficiently stable and prosperous to be a destination in its own right.

I suspect it would attract a minority of Jews in a no-WW2 scenario. Still, the Jewish population of the world would be around 50-60 million in such a scenario. It could be a very populated Israel.

fasquardon