Effect of 'Zimbabwean' South Africa.

[Norman]

In the chat section there is a discussion of Zimbabwe that I have been following. One of the posts suggests that once Nelson Mandela dies there might be an uprising against the whites.

What if the collapse of Apartheid had been accompanied by exactly that sort of thing? Let's say it begins with dispossession of the white settlers, and then expands to serious ethnic crimes (similar to what happens in Zimbabwe on occasion, but worse).

There is talk that such an event would result in extensive immigration to other countries, such as Canada, Australia and the US. What would the long term effect of this be?

 

[Alayta]

I am not a SA citizen, but I don´t think the afrikaans will leave SA in great numbers. they belive themselves to be africans (as their name indicates) and to have been in this aerea before the bantu tribes. I think, in your scenario there would be a awful lot of bloodshet, probably ending with white homelands.

 

[Beck Reilly]

I am not a SA citizen, but I don´t think the afrikaans will leave SA in great numbers. they belive themselves to be africans (as their name indicates) and to have been in this aerea before the bantu tribes.

They are an African people, albeit not in the sense that most think (black). The Afrikaners have been living in southern Africa for almost as long as whites have lived in North America. And, while most whites in America are descended from immigrants who came here in the early 1800s to early 1900s, many Afrikaners are descendents of the original settlers from the 17th Century. They have as much right to label themselves an African people as whites in the US do to call themselves Americans...

 

[DuQuense]

George Town Law School here in DC, Had a Scholarship for Africans, a few year back. It was won by someone from Kenya. When He arrived He was a six foot blue eyed blond. His great grandparents had emigrated to Kenya in the 1880's.

George Town Sued saying he had gotten the Scholarship under false pretenses. The Judge ruled He had Qualified under the Rules as Stated. George Town Dropped the Scholarship the next year.

 

[Norman]

They are an African people, albeit not in the sense that most think (black). The Afrikaners have been living in southern Africa for almost as long as whites have lived in North America. And, while most whites in America are descended from immigrants who came here in the early 1800s to early 1900s, many Afrikaners are descendents of the original settlers from the 17th Century. They have as much right to label themselves an African people as whites in the US do to call themselves Americans...

I don't disagree, but many others do, so I wonder, what would have been the impact of having approximately 6 million refugees from South Africa on the politics of the Western World.

For example, Canada, for better or worse, has a very different attitude toward politics than the white south africans, what would the impact be if suddenly a million refugees from SA appeared on their door step? Would they see the SA as pariahs because they weren't multi-cultural enough? Would they try to educate the refugees into thinking it was a 'good thing' they left their country.

What about the US, would it accept the refugees? How would an influx of say 3 million SOuth Africans affect internal politics? Would old wounds be torn open?

 

[Beck Reilly]

I don't disagree, but many others do, so I wonder, what would have been the impact of having approximately 6 million refugees from South Africa on the politics of the Western World.

For example, Canada, for better or worse, has a very different attitude toward politics than the white south africans, what would the impact be if suddenly a million refugees from SA appeared on their door step? Would they see the SA as pariahs because they weren't multi-cultural enough? Would they try to educate the refugees into thinking it was a 'good thing' they left their country.

What about the US, would it accept the refugees? How would an influx of say 3 million SOuth Africans affect internal politics? Would old wounds be torn open?

I don't see how anyone could disagree, but that's not the point.

Anyways, assuming the 2 (or so) million Afrikaners DID leave, which I don't believe they would (I mean, where are they going to go? They've lived in Africa for 400 years), they wouldn't all go to the same place. Afrikaners (basically the Dutch, German, and Huguenot whites) number around one third of the whites (I believe). They'd be much more likely to immigrate to the US than Britain, white the British-descended whites would be much more likely to immigrate to Britain.

Even if they decided to leave, there'd be the matter of the nations immigration policies to consider, as well. From what I understand from talking to foreigners working in the US, it's very hard to get a work permit, let alone an immigration permit to the US. The hassle might cause many to travel to other nations, like, possibly, Argentina, Chile, or the Netherlands, themselves.

 

[Xen]

I don't disagree, but many others do, so I wonder, what would have been the impact of having approximately 6 million refugees from South Africa on the politics of the Western World.

For example, Canada, for better or worse, has a very different attitude toward politics than the white south africans, what would the impact be if suddenly a million refugees from SA appeared on their door step? Would they see the SA as pariahs because they weren't multi-cultural enough? Would they try to educate the refugees into thinking it was a 'good thing' they left their country.

What about the US, would it accept the refugees? How would an influx of say 3 million SOuth Africans affect internal politics? Would old wounds be torn open?

I mentioned something along this once where the whites were forced to immigrate to Australia and the United States. To be honest I think of all the countries, the US would be the easiest for the White South Africans to become part of. Were more conservative than the ones remaining attached to the Commonwealth (yes I know SA is part of the commonwealth thats beside the point). Plus theres that whole monarch thing that I dont think South Africans would want to get involved in, they distanced themselves from the Queen pretty quickly in the 1960s.

How this would effect racial relations in the US is beyond me, I know many blacks might not be thrilled about it.

 

[Norman]

Anyways, assuming the 2 (or so) million Afrikaners DID leave, which I don't believe they would (I mean, where are they going to go? They've lived in Africa for 400 years), they wouldn't all go to the same place. Afrikaners (basically the Dutch, German, and Huguenot whites) number around one third of the whites (I believe). They'd be much more likely to immigrate to the US than Britain, white the British-descended whites would be much more likely to immigrate to Britain.

Even if they decided to leave, there'd be the matter of the nations immigration policies to consider, as well. From what I understand from talking to foreigners working in the US, it's very hard to get a work permit, let alone an immigration permit to the US. The hassle might cause many to travel to other nations, like, possibly, Argentina, Chile, or the Netherlands, themselves.

Kind of a South African Diaspora? Communities of Afrikaaners, establish themselves in the major cities of the world, all dreaming of their homeland?

On the refugee side, there are (today) close to six million SOuth Africans of European ancestory, even twenty years ago the number had to be close to five million. Assuming a truly nightmarish ethnic situation, they would have most leave or try to establish ethnic enclaves. Let's assume half leave, say 2.5 million, and the other half try to stay but are gradually forced out.

If they come to the US, you have very interesting politics, particualary if they establish themselves in South African Ghettoes.

 

[Alayta]

I do not think that all afrikaaners are racists? Some hardcore whites are surely living down there, but it is exactly them who would not let themselves be expelld by "kaffers". They would rather die and take some others with them, I am afraid.

 

[Admiral Matt]

"I do not think that all afrikaaners are racists? Some hardcore whites are surely living down there, but it is exactly them who would not let themselves be expelld by "kaffers". They would rather die and take some others with them, I am afraid."

Well, to be fair, being forced to flee their home and country would tend to leave them with a fair amount of resentment towards the "sort" of people who cast them out.

 

[Grey Wolf]

I don't see how anyone could disagree, but that's not the point.

Anyways, assuming the 2 (or so) million Afrikaners DID leave, which I don't believe they would (I mean, where are they going to go? They've lived in Africa for 400 years), they wouldn't all go to the same place. Afrikaners (basically the Dutch, German, and Huguenot whites) number around one third of the whites (I believe). They'd be much more likely to immigrate to the US than Britain, white the British-descended whites would be much more likely to immigrate to Britain.

Even if they decided to leave, there'd be the matter of the nations immigration policies to consider, as well. From what I understand from talking to foreigners working in the US, it's very hard to get a work permit, let alone an immigration permit to the US. The hassle might cause many to travel to other nations, like, possibly, Argentina, Chile, or the Netherlands, themselves.

Maybe you can look at Zimbabwe as a clue ? I went to school in the late 1980s with ex-Zimbabwean families who had fled Mugabe, who came back to Britain and moved largely to where their families were. I mean no reason to come to Peterborough if not, its not exactly a place of any power

With a strong British tradition in refugees - from the Hungarians my mum was at school with to the Vietnamese I knew as a kid to the Zimbabweans I knew as a young adult and the Somalis in modern schools, disregarding the racist newspapers and the easily riled 'Middle England' against asylum seekers, Britain is and always has been a haven for those fleeing persecution or escaping the collapse of their society

Grey Wolf

 

[Norman]

Maybe you can look at Zimbabwe as a clue ? I went to school in the late 1980s with ex-Zimbabwean families who had fled Mugabe, who came back to Britain and moved largely to where their families were. I mean no reason to come to Peterborough if not, its not exactly a place of any power

With a strong British tradition in refugees - from the Hungarians my mum was at school with to the Vietnamese I knew as a kid to the Zimbabweans I knew as a young adult and the Somalis in modern schools, disregarding the racist newspapers and the easily riled 'Middle England' against asylum seekers, Britain is and always has been a haven for those fleeing persecution or escaping the collapse of their society

Grey Wolf

How did they feel about the whole issue? What if they were there in much larger numbers? (As I recall there were never more than a few hundred thousand white farmers in Zimbabwe)

 

[MerryPrankster]

Norman,

There are many, many more whites in South Africa than in Zimbabwe, and they're more heavily armed and better organized. Instead of a minority being persecuted and fleeing, you might have a full-blown civil war.

Plus, the blacks will likely fight among themselves. Anti-white pogroms would probably be led by the more radical African National Congress (ANC) elements, and the Inkatha Freedom Party (the other anti-apartheid organization) will see that they (they're largely Zulu) will be next. Remember, before Mugabe went after the whites, he went after the Shona, his old tribal enemies.

 

[Norman]

Norman,

There are many, many more whites in South Africa than in Zimbabwe, and they're more heavily armed and better organized. Instead of a minority being persecuted and fleeing, you might have a full-blown civil war.

Plus, the blacks will likely fight among themselves. Anti-white pogroms would probably be led by the more radical African National Congress (ANC) elements, and the Inkatha Freedom Party (the other anti-apartheid organization) will see that they (they're largely Zulu) will be next. Remember, before Mugabe went after the whites, he went after the Shona, his old tribal enemies.

These are really good points. So we don't get a 'white flight' early on in the process, at what point would we, and what would be the response of the west?

 

[Valamyr]

We are talking when exactly? Didnt South africa have a small working nuclear arsenal around the time (thanks to Israeli help), that they later gave up, around the time where this could occur? Obviously, if it's elite was threatened serious of exile or even genocide, they'd surely be willing to respond back in kind with that, to offset their numerical disadvantage.

 

[Dave Howery]

Also, the whites aren't a monolithic block either.... just as the blacks have their own quarrels, aren't the whites descended from several groups? Boer, English, etc? Plus, there is a sizable Asian population there too, IIRC...
One thing of note: Not all areas of SA were originally inhabited by black tribes. Big chunks right around the southern coast were originally inhabited by Bushmen/Hottentot/San peoples who are now extinct. The whites have as much claim to those areas as anyone else. It seems to me that SA could have broken up along tribal lines as well as racial.... the Zulu homelands could be an independent unit, as well as several other of the larger native tribes.....

 

[Marius]

If there was any largescale emigration it would be among the whites of British origin. Most Afrikaners, as correctly pointed out on this board, feel themselves to be African, and have as much right to live in Africa as any black African. Nobody has mentioned Australia as a destination. I believe that this is the most likely destination. The climate is similar to South Africa, they generally follow the same sports, and by all acounts they are relatively similar to white South Africans. In addition, I don't think there will be any ghettoisation of white South African emigres. South Africans expats generally become part of the country they live in, especially where the culture and language are similar.

With regards to geo-politics, a destabilised South Africa would have dire consequences for the rest of the region, and the continent as a whole. A number of analysts have said that South Africa is Africa's last, best hope to pull itself into the 21st century, in terms of economics, politics and trade. Without South Africa's economic and political clout, southern Africa will soon be forgotten by the rest of the world.

Norman,

There are many, many more whites in South Africa than in Zimbabwe, and they're more heavily armed and better organized. Instead of a minority being persecuted and fleeing, you might have a full-blown civil war.

Plus, the blacks will likely fight among themselves. Anti-white pogroms would probably be led by the more radical African National Congress (ANC) elements, and the Inkatha Freedom Party (the other anti-apartheid organization) will see that they (they're largely Zulu) will be next. Remember, before Mugabe went after the whites, he went after the Shona, his old tribal enemies.

Mugabe is a Shona, he went after the Ndebele.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Marius,

Oops. I guess my memory of the various tribal memberships over there isn't as good as it ought to be.

The principle should still work though.

 

[Norman]

If there was any largescale emigration it would be among the whites of British origin. Most Afrikaners, as correctly pointed out on this board, feel themselves to be African, and have as much right to live in Africa as any black African. Nobody has mentioned Australia as a destination. I believe that this is the most likely destination. The climate is similar to South Africa, they generally follow the same sports, and by all acounts they are relatively similar to white South Africans. In addition, I don't think there will be any ghettoisation of white South African emigres. South Africans expats generally become part of the country they live in, especially where the culture and language are similar.

With regards to geo-politics, a destabilised South Africa would have dire consequences for the rest of the region, and the continent as a whole. A number of analysts have said that South Africa is Africa's last, best hope to pull itself into the 21st century, in terms of economics, politics and trade. Without South Africa's economic and political clout, southern Africa will soon be forgotten by the rest of the world.



Mugabe is a Shona, he went after the Ndebele.

So if for what ever reason, South Africa would go the way of Zimbabwe, we would probably see several movements and results.

First, there would be an increase of emmigration of many of the non-Afrikaaners to other commonwealth countries, most probably Australia.

Second, there would probably be a lot of consolidation of white South Africans into certain well armed enclaves which would be located where?

Third, it is an open question whether black South Africans would seek to attack the enclaves, but the general feeling is if they did they wouldn't be successful.

Fourth, if the attack were successful, is it likely that the white south africans would be protected by the international community? I think it is, at which point hey too would leave and resettle else where.

[Can Australia handle the resettlement of some five million South Africans within a period of say four to five years?]

Fifth and last, if a Mugabe style government were to be put into place, the economy and power of south africa as a region would disappear.

Is this a fair review of what has been posted?

 

[Marius]

Any tribal/racial/ethnic war in South Africa is likely to have three factions, the Zulu, the whites and the rest of the blacks, led by the Xhosas. The Zulus could easily establish an independent type homeland in KwaZulu-Natal, but what must be remebered is that even the Zulus are fractured along political lines. Currently South Africa's deputy president is Zulu, as is its foreign minister. In addition, the province of KwaZulu-Natal, which the Zulu ethnic Inkatha Freedom Party has controlled since 1994, was won by the Xhosa-dominated ANC in the recent April general election, as more Zulus vote on issues than ethnicity. All-in-all any tribal/race war in South Africa would be very brutal and savage, and would probably rival the Yugoslav wars of the 1990s in brutality and scale of atrocity which will be committed. As a South African, all I can say is thank God we never we went down that path and sanity prevailed.