England stays Catholic, but France turns Protestant

[Fabius Maximus]

As it says in the title. For England, either Catherine gives Henry a son, or she dies before Henry breaks with Rome, or Henry just decides that Mary is an acceptable heir after all. Either way, England remains in the Catholic fold. For France, I don't know enough about French history to say what the most plausible POD would be, but let's say that the French king embraces the new religion sometime in the 16th century, and manages to get enough Frenchmen to join him to avoid being overthrown or whatever.

What would be the result of this? France, despite being Catholic, spent a lot of the early modern period at war with the equally-Catholic Hapsburgs, so I'm not sure much would change in terms of France's foreign policy. Unless France somehow does better in the Italian Wars, we probably won't see a French Protestant army marching into Italy to depose the Pope, although no doubt plenty in the Roman Curia would worry about such a possibility anyway. Depending on when France switches, therefore, we might see TTL's Council of Trent happening a few years earlier.

As for England, IOTL anti-Catholicism and xenophobia were quite prevalent after the Reformation, and ITTL anti-Protestantism and xenophobia would probably play a similar role in solidifying the national identity. Protestants would probably be viewed like Catholics IOTL, i.e., a threatening fifth column for foreign absolutism (French, in this case, rather than Spanish).

One interesting question is how far the two religions would spread. IOTL England was more colonially-oriented than France, and this would probably remain the case ITTL, if only for geographic reasons (i.e., England can get away with not supporting a large army due to the English Channel). Since none of the other Protestant countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, some German states) have the numbers to become large-scale colonisers, this probably means that the spread of Protestantism beyond Europe is more limited compared to OTL.

Any thoughts?

 

[Fabius Maximus]

No takers?

 

[RedKing]

If France goes Protestant I think we’ll see the Italian wars (or whatever wars follow it) take up a more religious tone as a Protestant France may be seen as a threat to the Papacy given their proximity to each other. Perhaps it forces France to keep allying with the Ottomans? It could also cause a headache for the Habsburgs as Protestant German States ally with France and possibly try and support them becoming Holy Roman Emperor.

England being Catholic probably results in a setback for Scottish Protestantism ittl as I doubt England would allow a Protestant Kingdom right at its footstep. Future English monarchs will probably highlight their loyalty to Rome when pressing their claim to France too.

 

[Vercigentorix]

Henry used parliament for the English reformation, this established the precedent that its Acts could legislate virtually anything. Without parliamentary sovereignty and religious sectarian conflict, the Crown has only fiscal insolvency to worry about.
how they handle it depends on the character of the King or Queen ruling England in the first half of the 17th century.
As for the French, England and Spain declaring war and leaving France as a reduced protestant state centered somewhere around the southern Atlantic is a likely scenario.
depending on the timing, Protestant France wins and takes control of the Netherlands ?

 

[Nuraghe]

As it says in the title. For England, either Catherine gives Henry a son, or she dies before Henry breaks with Rome, or Henry just decides that Mary is an acceptable heir after all. Either way, England remains in the Catholic fold. For France, I don't know enough about French history to say what the most plausible POD would be, but let's say that the French king embraces the new religion sometime in the 16th century, and manages to get enough Frenchmen to join him to avoid being overthrown or whatever.

What would be the result of this? France, despite being Catholic, spent a lot of the early modern period at war with the equally-Catholic Hapsburgs, so I'm not sure much would change in terms of France's foreign policy. Unless France somehow does better in the Italian Wars, we probably won't see a French Protestant army marching into Italy to depose the Pope, although no doubt plenty in the Roman Curia would worry about such a possibility anyway. Depending on when France switches, therefore, we might see TTL's Council of Trent happening a few years earlier.

As for England, IOTL anti-Catholicism and xenophobia were quite prevalent after the Reformation, and ITTL anti-Protestantism and xenophobia would probably play a similar role in solidifying the national identity. Protestants would probably be viewed like Catholics IOTL, i.e., a threatening fifth column for foreign absolutism (French, in this case, rather than Spanish).

One interesting question is how far the two religions would spread. IOTL England was more colonially-oriented than France, and this would probably remain the case ITTL, if only for geographic reasons (i.e., England can get away with not supporting a large army due to the English Channel). Since none of the other Protestant countries (Denmark, Norway, Sweden, some German states) have the numbers to become large-scale colonisers, this probably means that the spread of Protestantism beyond Europe is more limited compared to OTL.

Any thoughts?

in addition to this, I would like to point out that the most widespread Protestantism in Otl France ( but which paled in comparison with the rest of the population, the proportion was approximately 1 to 20, not to mention that France will be bloodied by terrible civil wars in an even more violent manner than Otl, it was also certain that both the papacy, England and the Habsburgs will support the Catholic faction in the conflict in every possible way, it is given that Otl was the one with a clear advantage that even if in bad shape, I don't see it very easily being able to do worse in this scenario ) was Calvinist in nature, i.e. the most aggressive, militant and with violent millenaristic tendencies, everything could lead to seeing for this ATL France the same vision of the first republican revolutionaries of Otl, that is to export the revolution throughout Europe ( in this case exporting their Calvinism to the continent possibly also with the use of force ) furthermore given the bad relations between Lutherans and Calvinists at the time in the HRE ( which were one of the main causes that triggered Otl 30YW ), it is likely that the Habsburgs would ally themselves with the former to contain the latter, perhaps allowing the creation of a Lutheran kingdom in the north of the empire to be allocated to the Wettin ( that is, those who first supported Luther ) certainly those who will lose will be the minor princes, but both the Habsburgs and the papacy and finally the moderate Lutherans will understand that to slow down this France it is better to reach a compromise as soon as possible, is whether this requires greater imperial power, but at the same time allows the confirmation of a place where they can believe in total freedom while remaining legally subjects of the emperor ( via their lord of Saxony ), they should have no problem accepting this idea



while from the papal point of view, I see the curia extremely disturbed, if not terrified by this development, the first problem will concern the powerful importance of the French clergy in the curia, with the cardinals from beyond the Alps being the largest party of foreigners ( which later became on a par with the Spanish ) however I see England pushing to gain control over what remains of the French Catholic hierarchy ( in an inverted version of Otl, where the British exponents were formed in France ) this alone puts London in a position of strength within the papal court, as almost never before, increasing its chances of actively influencing conclaves in the future

 

[Fabius Maximus]

in addition to this, I would like to point out that the most widespread Protestantism in Otl France ( but which paled in comparison with the rest of the population, the proportion was approximately 1 to 20, not to mention that France will be bloodied by terrible civil wars in an even more violent manner than Otl, it was also certain that both the papacy, England and the Habsburgs will support the Catholic faction in the conflict in every possible way, it is given that Otl was the one with a clear advantage that even if in bad shape, I don't see it very easily being able to do worse in this scenario ) was Calvinist in nature, i.e. the most aggressive, militant and with violent millenaristic tendencies, everything could lead to seeing for this ATL France the same vision of the first republican revolutionaries of Otl, that is to export the revolution throughout Europe ( in this case exporting their Calvinism to the continent possibly also with the use of force )

They might be able to support pre-existing Calvinist movements (a bit like England did in Scotland IOTL), but warfare of the period was too siege-centric for the sort of sweeping military campaigns the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars saw. (I mean, just look at the Eighty Years' War -- the Spanish had the best army in the continent, and couldn't even occupy the entire Netherlands.) If you want a Calvinist French Revolution analogue, it would probably be better to have the country convert to a more mainstream kind of Protestantism initially, and for more radical, millenarian tendencies to develop during the 18th century, when invading and occupying most of Europe is actually feasible. (TTL's Napoleon, assuming he still exists, might bear more than a passing resemblance to Oliver Cromwell.)

 

[Nuraghe]

They might be able to support pre-existing Calvinist movements (a bit like England did in Scotland IOTL), but warfare of the period was too siege-centric for the sort of sweeping military campaigns the French Revolutionary and Napoleonic Wars saw. (I mean, just look at the Eighty Years' War -- the Spanish had the best army in the continent, and couldn't even occupy the entire Netherlands.) If you want a Calvinist French Revolution analogue, it would probably be better to have the country convert to a more mainstream kind of Protestantism initially, and for more radical, millenarian tendencies to develop during the 18th century, when invading and occupying most of Europe is actually feasible. (TTL's Napoleon, assuming he still exists, might bear more than a passing resemblance to Oliver Cromwell.)

you misunderstood me, I do not mean that ATL France develops military tactics similar to revolutionary France, but rather has a similarity with the basic ideology, that is, to export its thoughts beyond its borders, to also be used as a method to defend its core from possible attacks against it, furthermore a Napoleon is not needed, simply a Gustavus Adolphus in French sauce would be enough,
as regards the tercios they were indeed the best army of the time, but their strong point was in defense and in mixed tactics where they had no equal, so much so that the Dutch Rebels copied their tactics from time to time but adapted them to an offensive style

 

[Fabius Maximus]

you misunderstood me, I do not mean that ATL France develops military tactics similar to revolutionary France, but rather has a similarity with the basic ideology, that is, to export its thoughts beyond its borders, to also be used as a method to defend its core from possible attacks against it, furthermore a Napoleon is not needed, simply a Gustavus Adolphus in French sauce would be enough,

I wasn't referring to their tactics, more to the ease or otherwise of exporting their beliefs. A radical 16th-century Huguenot France could support Protestant groups where they already existed (as the English did in Scotland or Gustavus Adolphus did in Germany), but they wouldn't be able to spread Protestantism throughout Europe to anything like the degree that Revolutionary France was able to spread its ideology.

 

[Nuraghe]

I wasn't referring to their tactics, more to the ease or otherwise of exporting their beliefs. A radical 16th-century Huguenot France could support Protestant groups where they already existed (as the English did in Scotland or Gustavus Adolphus did in Germany), but they wouldn't be able to spread Protestantism throughout Europe to anything like the degree that Revolutionary France was able to spread its ideology.

ah ok then I see that we agree, I also think that even if they have this thought in their heads ( let's export our type of Calvinism throughout the continent and let's add destroying Rome in the process, because it is the natural development of the previous thought, moreover it is quite obvious, given that Rome will be their fiercest rival together with the Habsburgs ), they are unlikely to be able to truly realize it, but in any case it would be a significant threat for the countries neighboring it

 

[FalconHonour]

This is a really fascinating idea. Perhaps Henry IV of Navarre is the*only* male claimant left, meaning France has no choice but to accept him as King, even without him converting to Catholicism? It seems the most immediately obvious POD...

 

[Fabius Maximus]

ah ok then I see that we agree, I also think that even if they have this thought in their heads ( let's export our type of Calvinism throughout the continent and let's add destroying Rome in the process, because it is the natural development of the previous thought, moreover it is quite obvious, given that Rome will be their fiercest rival together with the Habsburgs ), they are unlikely to be able to truly realize it, but in any case it would be a significant threat for the countries neighboring it

True, thought TBH France was pretty expansionistic IOTL anyway, so I'm not sure how much of a difference there would really be from neighbouring countries' perspective.

 

[Nuraghe]

True, thought TBH France was pretty expansionistic IOTL anyway, so I'm not sure how much of a difference there would really be from neighbouring countries' perspective.

well considering that its immediate neighbors are mostly Catholic/Habsburg and if we combine this with the extreme anti-Catholicism that united the Protestant powers of Otl, I can see that the wars between them will be in violence on par with a 30YW or the wars between the Habsburgs and the Ottomans of the same period ( known for rarely taking prisoners for ransom, the cases of this were very few ) furthermore I don't even see a possibility of collaboration with the non-reformed Protestants ( it is more likely that an ATL Peace of Augsburg sees even more violent opposition to the recognition of the reformed confession by the Lutheran party compared to Otl, creating an unlikely axis with the Habsburgs, especially if Saxony remains unchallenged as the leader of the former ) in particular considering that Otl Calvinism was very strong along the Rhine and central Germany ( see Palatinate, Netherlands and Hesse Kassel ) and naturally places like ecclesiastical territories will be even more inclined to immediately throw themselves into support of the Emperor since they would be tremendously exposed to the front line in the event of an open conflict

 

[Fabius Maximus]

well considering that its immediate neighbors are mostly Catholic/Habsburg and if we combine this with the extreme anti-Catholicism that united the Protestant powers of Otl, I can see that the wars between them will be in violence on par with a 30YW or the wars between the Habsburgs and the Ottomans of the same period ( known for rarely taking prisoners for ransom, the cases of this were very few ) furthermore I don't even see a possibility of collaboration with the non-reformed Protestants ( it is more likely that an ATL Peace of Augsburg sees even more violent opposition to the recognition of the reformed confession by the Lutheran party compared to Otl, creating an unlikely axis with the Habsburgs, especially if Saxony remains unchallenged as the leader of the former ) in particular considering that Otl Calvinism was very strong along the Rhine and central Germany ( see Palatinate, Netherlands and Hesse Kassel ) and naturally places like ecclesiastical territories will be even more inclined to immediately throw themselves into support of the Emperor since they would be tremendously exposed to the front line in the event of an open conflict

The Thirty Years' War wasn't actually unusually violent for the seventeenth century. It was more destructive, because it went on for longer and was fought on a larger scale, but in terms of how the soldiers behaved, there was little to choose between the TYW and Louis XIV's invasions of Germany.

As for allying with non-Calvinist Protestants, Calvinists IOTL were happy to make common cause with other kinds of Protestant (e.g., the Scottish Lords of the Covenant or Dutch rebels getting help from England). Heck, the leader of the French Calvinists even ended up converting to Catholicism ("Paris is worth a Mass"). Going Protestant would give France an extra reason to fight the Hapsburgs, but I don't think the country would be quite as single-minded or uncompromising as you seem to suggest.