Fate of the Liberals With No SDP split?

[Time Enough]

So, if there was No SDP Split (as in maybe Woy bumbles off to the Liberals but William’s, Owen and Rodgers stay put in 81’) what would be the effect on the Liberals?

An important question would be if there would be any form of Modernisation of the party in the late 80s, with a Ashdown or maybe Penhaligon type figure?

Another would be, would there be cooperation between the Greens and Liberals? With the Young Liberals/Green/Red Guard around supporting increasingly more Green/Eco issues and the chance of there still being a possible Green surge at some point, would there be the possibility of local Green-Liberal alliances etc.

 

[marktaha]

Depends - open secret that some SDP defectors voted for Foot to get things going. If they'd voted for Healey - I think Electoral College 50-25-25 (50 to PLP) GE 1983 something like Con 41 Lab 35 Lib 20 - then Healey- Benn - Kinnock-Shore election- not much different in long term except smaller Con majorities.

 

[marktaha]

So, if there was No SDP Split (as in maybe Woy bumbles off to the Liberals but William’s, Owen and Rodgers stay put in 81’) what would be the effect on the Liberals?

An important question would be if there would be any form of Modernisation of the party in the late 80s, with a Ashdown or maybe Penhaligon type figure?

Another would be, would there be cooperation between the Greens and Liberals? With the Young Liberals/Green/Red Guard around supporting increasingly more Green/Eco issues and the chance of there still being a possible Green surge at some point, would there be the possibility of local Green-Liberal alliances etc.

If only Penhaligon had lived on

 

[Time Enough]

If only Penhaligon had lived on

He’s interesting, probably one of the few Liberals who would have gotten them out of there politics being based upon who was leader that week.

But would likely piss off the Anti-Nuke/NATO members of the party (though he would have likely gotten on with the Green Guard on other matters).

 

[Time Enough]

Another thing to consider would the fate of the Green/Red Guard in scenario where the party wouldn’t be modernising etc.

Could lead to a weird Libertarian Municipalism Wing etc.

 

[Greg Grant]

I think this is a fun idea to explore, but to me there are two questions/PODs here. One, what happens if Roy Jenkins goes to the Liberals. Two, what happens if then SDP does not happen. I am having a hard time seeing the second scenario/POD occurring unless something is done about the October1980 Blackpool conference, which pretty much made it impossible for Shirley Williams, David Owen or Bill Rodgers to stay in the Labour Party. Healey was prepared to play the long-game, as were others who thought the key to Labour politics is biding time. But Williams was fed up. Rodgers was trying to find a reason to hang on, but was exhausted with the nonsense. Dr. Owen is a bit more complicated, but there is a wonderful photo of him, sitting inside the arena/auditorium at Blackpool, on the steps, notes rolled up, waiting to speak, eyes and body pointed forward like a great beast of prey ready to do battle. Whatever he felt prior to Blackpool, after Blackpool he was finished with the Labour Party. Without Roy joining the Gang, the original Gang of Three were prepared to act on their own. Roy was a statesman, who got them press coverage and added gravitas to the proceedings, but they were primed and ready.

In terms of Roy joining the Liberals, I could easily see that. His socio-economic, political and geo-political views were easily aligned with Steel's Liberals. He did not feel the need to state he was a democratic socialist the way Williams and Owen stressed it when forming the Gang of Three, who thought they were rebuilding and remaking a Labour Party without the old baggage. Roy was as close to a Whig as you could get at this point, and he might have well joined the Liberals, along with perhaps half dozen or so Jenkinites in the Labour Party. SDP would have been harder to form without Roy's celebrity status, but there were enough committed moderate Labour MPs to still create SDP who did not see a future for themselves in Foot's Party with Benn in the wings.

Where all of this would have ended is a good rabbit hole down to which lose yourself. But when I did my SDP timeline (thumbs up, cheap pop/plug), I found the biggest obstacle to a timeline where SDP or the Liberals do "better" than in OTL is not alignment, so much as Falklands. With Falklands going as it did in OTL, short of Labour imploding even worse (which is what a @SeptimiusSeverus's Breaking the Mound TL does), it is very hard to see Liberals or SDP doing much better than OTL and it all going as it did.

 

[Time Enough]

I will add an additional POD to make things easier, Peter Shore wins the 1980 leadership contest (Foot stands aside as originally intend and Healey loses because Denis Healey). Quite a few eventual SDP members stated that Shore would have likely lead them to stay due to his more aggressive action against the Hard Left (But also having Soft Left credibility and all that) and likely would have seen Owen stay around (I remember reading that Shore had an okay relationship with Owen though they did have there differences, but Shore would probably hand him a decent portfolio or something).

Just adding that there because it’s likely to be the only result that doesn’t have a proper SDP split as it were, probably a TIG like Group maybe lead by George Brown would form but nothing major, without the early momentum of the SDP behind it, any other Centrist split would likely be dead in the water.

But that’s adding more PODs to it already.

There probably would be a moderate split but less severe as it were.

In terms of Roy joining the Liberals, I could easily see that. His socio-economic, political and geo-political views were easily aligned with Steel's Liberals.

I think it’s been mentioned multiple times that if the SDP hadn’t happened when it did, Roy would have wandered off with a few friends to join the Liberals/start his own Centrist party which likely merges with the Liberals.

I thought I would mention that on the outset, because Roy Jenkins isn’t likely to shake up internal Liberal politics too much, I doubt he would be leader and all that.

But Williams was fed up. Rodgers was trying to find a reason to hang on, but was exhausted with the nonsense.

It’s fairly easy to have Williams and Rodgers bugger off to the private sector as I believe it was an option considered before they got the support of the other two.

Where all of this would have ended is a good rabbit hole down to which lose yourself. But when I did my SDP timeline (thumbs up, cheap pop/plug), I found the biggest obstacle to a timeline where SDP or the Liberals do "better" than in OTL is not alignment, so much as Falklands. With Falklands going as it did in OTL, short of Labour imploding even worse (which is what a @SeptimiusSeverus's Breaking the Mound TL does), it is very hard to see Liberals or SDP doing much better than OTL and it all going as it did.

I have read your timeline a bit, and I think it’s excellent (though I find you’re characterisation of Bryan Gould slightly off, not by much but still).

I set up this thread mainly as a reaction to the multiple SDP timelines, there’s a number of them and not many ones discussing the Liberal party in a No-SDP world and how it would have handled the 80s without the Alliance. Steel would probably eventually step down in the Mid 80s, mainly because I doubt there would be a Liberal explosion in the 80s, given everything that happened in OTL.

But beyond that, not much of a clue. Penhaligon probably would become leader given the relatively slim pickings for 80s Liberal leaders (apart from Alan Beith who would probably just have the Liberals do, just fine etc).

 

[Greg Grant]

I will add an additional POD to make things easier, Peter Shore wins the 1980 leadership contest (Foot stands aside as originally intend and Healey loses because Denis Healey). Quite a few eventual SDP members stated that Shore would have likely lead them to stay due to his more aggressive action against the Hard Left (But also having Soft Left credibility and all that) and likely would have seen Owen stay around (I remember reading that Shore had an okay relationship with Owen though they did have there differences, but Shore would probably hand him a decent portfolio or something).

Just adding that there because it’s likely to be the only result that doesn’t have a proper SDP split as it were, probably a TIG like Group maybe lead by George Brown would form but nothing major, without the early momentum of the SDP behind it, any other Centrist split would likely be dead in the water.

But that’s adding more PODs to it already.

There probably would be a moderate split but less severe as it were.

I think it’s been mentioned multiple times that if the SDP hadn’t happened when it did, Roy would have wandered off with a few friends to join the Liberals/start his own Centrist party which likely merges with the Liberals.

I thought I would mention that on the outset, because Roy Jenkins isn’t likely to shake up internal Liberal politics too much, I doubt he would be leader and all that.

It’s fairly easy to have Williams and Rodgers bugger off to the private sector as I believe it was an option considered before they got the support of the other two.

I have read your timeline a bit, and I think it’s excellent (though I find you’re characterisation of Bryan Gould slightly off, not by much but still).

I set up this thread mainly as a reaction to the multiple SDP timelines, there’s a number of them and not many ones discussing the Liberal party in a No-SDP world and how it would have handled the 80s without the Alliance. Steel would probably eventually step down in the Mid 80s, mainly because I doubt there would be a Liberal explosion in the 80s, given everything that happened in OTL.

But beyond that, not much of a clue. Penhaligon probably would become leader given the relatively slim pickings for 80s Liberal leaders (apart from Alan Beith who would probably just have the Liberals do, just fine etc).

Ah, thanks for the clarification. And yeah, I pro'lly did not do well with Bryan Gould. I think a no-SDP Liberal scenario would be a good read because most folks do tend to focus on SDP, for obvious reasons. And yeah, don't see Steel maintaining momentum without the Alliance. Though, maybe without the two David syndromes, he could have had a chance to shine.

 

[Time Enough]

Ah, thanks for the clarification. And yeah, I pro'lly did not do well with Bryan Gould.

It’s fine, he’s an odd one to plot out to say the least. His memoir is a fascinating read to say the least.

And yeah, don't see Steel maintaining momentum without the Alliance. Though, maybe without the two David syndromes, he could have had a chance to shine.

I get the sense he would do fine, but I think he would probably retire in the Mid 80s, the I have the sense he stayed as long as he did was because of the Other David and not wanting the Liberals to be swallowed up by the glitzy SDP Machine.

 

[Deleted member 157939]

While the Alliance failed to live up to its initial hype, it did rejuvenate the Liberal party. The Liberals of the early 80s (prior to the split) where in quite a strange situation in which Steel’s actions as leader where often at odds with the grassroots and certain wings of the party. Ironically David Steel was described as a social democrat leading a Liberal party, he often avoided direct confrontation with fellow members. The party’s performance in 79 was a far cry from the boom of support enjoyed in the early 70s, appearing to be on the decline in the polls.

The SDP split however would thrust the party into the national spotlight. The initial wave of euphoria surrounding the alliance’s formation would benefit the stagnating Liberals immensely. Despite it’s shortcomings, the Alliance was able to attract a significant base of support. While failing to mobilize potential support, a surprisingly large number of voters considered voting or supported the Alliance during by-elections and in the general elections of 83 and 87. Internally, the alliance would have seismic effects on the political environment of the Liberals.

I would argue without an SDP breakaway, the Liberal party would potentially stagnate, enduring a slow gradual decline. I believe this was the premise of a TL, yet I forget it’s name as of now 🤔

 

[Time Enough]

I would argue without an SDP breakaway, the Liberal party would potentially stagnate, enduring a slow gradual decline. I believe this was the premise of a TL, yet I forget it’s name as of now 🤔

I think the TL was the Slow Death of Liberal Britain or something. I do think the Liberals would probably face a choice, of continued irrelevance or modernisation, similar to Labour in the Post-Alliance/Thatcher era.

Whilst I think there would be stagnation in the early 80s (I think the only potential gain for the Liberals you would see in a Non-SDP election would be Yeovil and that’s because Paddy Ashdown nursed it throughout the early 80s) I think in the late 80s there could be a bounce back if they chose someone who could push the party in a more modern direction, which would probably involving listening to National Young Liberals since in this scenario they would likely have more power (so we could see some weird Green Left Libertarian Wing of the Liberals or something).

Otherwise it’s just becomes the party of the Shetlands and Council’s.

 

[Deleted member 157939]

I think the TL was the Slow Death of Liberal Britain or something. I do think the Liberals would probably face a choice, of continued irrelevance or modernisation, similar to Labour in the Post-Alliance/Thatcher era.

Whilst I think there would be stagnation in the early 80s (I think the only potential gain for the Liberals you would see in a Non-SDP election would be Yeovil and that’s because Paddy Ashdown nursed it throughout the early 80s) I think in the late 80s there could be a bounce back if they chose someone who could push the party in a more modern direction, which would probably involving listening to National Young Liberals since in this scenario they would likely have more power (so we could see some weird Green Left Libertarian Wing of the Liberals or something).

Otherwise it’s just becomes the party of the Shetlands and Council’s.

Very interesting point. On the flip side without the influence of the SDP, is there any chance of an earlier “Orange-Booker” like movement emerging, gearing the Liberals even further away from the centre-left?

 

[Time Enough]

On the flip side without the influence of the SDP, is there any chance of an earlier “Orange-Booker” like movement emerging, gearing the Liberals even further away from the centre-left?

Maybe, though most of the more 'Gladstonian' type Liberals had either left in the early 60s, defected to the Tories (like Keith Joseph recommend that the Tories should support changes to PR) or became part of Think Tanks, so what you probably would get is something similar to the Continuity Liberals than the Orange Bookers that emerged.

 

[Deleted member 157939]

I wonder how such an alternate green- libertarian Liberal party would fare during the 90s. Assuming that Labour remains moderate without the SDP split/Shore leadership, perhaps the Liberals could pose themselves as a more radical alternative to both Labour and the Tories. The affects of such appeal could be very interesting in the 90s/early 2000s

 

[Time Enough]

I wonder how such an alternate green- libertarian Liberal party would fare during the 90s. Assuming that Labour remains moderate without the SDP split/Shore leadership, perhaps the Liberals could pose themselves as a more radical alternative to both Labour and the Tories. The affects of such appeal could be very interesting in the 90s/early 2000s

In a Shore situation, if the people replacing him are the Hattersley squad or even Straw/Blunkett I would say that the Liberals would probably do quite well as the 'Alternative' to them and the Tories. You could see the Liberals also seeing support from folks like Charter 88 and all that, it would be a good situation for the likes of Olly Grender and Norman Baker etc.

 

[stodge]

The SDP element split for a number of policy reasons which wouldn't have disappeared had they stayed in Labour. The "longest suicide note in history" would doubtless still have been written and Thatcher would have her 1983 post-Falklands landslide.

Without the initial SDP joining, you don't have the issues over defence in 1987 and the post-merger fallout which left the Liberals and the new Liberal Democrats very weak in 1989-90. The Liberals would probably have maintained around 15% in support and kept 15-20 seats.

I could envisage David Penhaligon taking over from David Steel after the 1987 election and leading an upswing in party fortunes starting with the Richmond by-election in 1989 and much better Liberal performances in the 1989 and 1990 local elections leading to a Liberal triumph at Eastbourne in the by-election.

By 1992, the Liberals in this TL are in a strong position and able to deprive John Major of a majority.

 

[Time Enough]

The SDP element split for a number of policy reasons which wouldn't have disappeared had they stayed in Labour. The "longest suicide note in history" would doubtless still have been written and Thatcher would have her 1983 post-Falklands landslide.

If it’s a situation like ‘Shore Becomes Leader’ then you probably have a scenario where the manifesto is less shite (Shore was a man who prided himself on being the key architect of the successful Labour Manifestos) and not literally created in a night (done by the Old Right folks going ‘Fuck it’ and ramming a bunch of Left Wing goodies they hated into a manifesto despite complaints from even some of the Hard Left), most the SDP splitters Stay, bugger off to private jobs (like Williams and Rodgers considered) or join Jenkins & Marquand In the Liberals.

Also you would probably see a Labour Party that has 220 to 230 seats or so even with Shore in charge because even if there was no Falklands the Labour Party was incredibly old fashioned and antiquated in media presentation.

Without the initial SDP joining, you don't have the issues over defence in 1987 and the post-merger fallout which left the Liberals and the new Liberal Democrats very weak in 1989-90. The Liberals would probably have maintained around 15% in support and kept 15-20 seats.

I could envisage David Penhaligon taking over from David Steel after the 1987 election and leading an upswing in party fortunes starting with the Richmond by-election in 1989 and much better Liberal performances in the 1989 and 1990 local elections leading to a Liberal triumph at Eastbourne in the by-election.

I could Steel resigning earlier if there’s a slump, I think he only stayed on as long as he did was so the Alliance wasn’t consumed by the ego of Davis Owen in image. But yeah, I see the Liberal having a better time under David Penhaligon who seemed to have more of a concept of what the Liberals could be.

By 1992, the Liberals in this TL are in a strong position and able to deprive John Major of a majority.

I think the question would be out for if the Major is even Prime Minister here, you could a Alt-87 lead to Thatcher resigning in 88 as she originally planned to.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

Charles Kennedy and Vince Cable started out in politics in the SDP, not the Liberals. What party do they join in this timeline?

 

[Time Enough]

Charles Kennedy and Vince Cable started out in politics in the SDP, not the Liberals. What party do they join in this timeline?

Actually Vince Cable was originally a member of the Liberals before joining Labour in the early 70s, so he could rejoin in the mid 80s or so. Kennedy would probably stay in Labour Party as he was originally part of until 81 or so, since Kennedy seemed to be one of the SDP members who believed in the S & D parts of the party name.

 

[MartinD]

Kennedy would probably stay in Labour Party as he was originally part of until 81 or so, since Kennedy seemed to be one of the SDP members who believed in the S & D parts of the party name.

That raises an interesting thought - Kennedy as one of Labour's bright young things alongside Blair and Brown...