Greater Somalia

[Agentdark]

Alright, lets try something even stranger then average. Right before, as well as during the Ogaden War between Somalia and Ethiopia, Somalia claimed a destiny of Greater Somalia, unifiyng all parts of what they judged to be parts of Somalia. Now, lets be realistic, and just start with Somalia annexing the Ogaden region of Ethiopia.

What effect would that have on the world?

Also, what effect would Somalia gaining the other parts of Greater Somalia somehow be (Part of Northern Kenya, and Dijibouti)

 

[Swede]

Would be very interesting, quite a bit of border-redrawing in Africa resulting in a nation-state (albeit one with a tribal society). On the one hand changing borders has been something frowned upon alot in postcolonial Africa, on the other Greater Somalia (with good borders) would possibly have the whole (ethno)nation-state thing going for it that has been so important in Europe in the last century.

I'm thinking it'd take some serious diplomacy and manouvering for the Powers to recognize the new borders. But once that's done there'd be reverberations across the continent, no clue what those would be.

 

[Agentdark]

Thats what I was thinking, if a Somali state does organize itself, perhaps a few other Ethnic states might arise...Katanga and the like.

 

[Blitzhund]

Agent, I'm assuming that by annexing you mean that Somalia is the victor in the 1977-78 Ogaden War.

Interesting concept. It would mean a number of changes in the area. The Eritrean independence movement would have been successful if the Ethiopian forces under the Derg were defeated in Ogaden.

With such defeats at it's door I would suggest that the Soviet Union and by proxy Cuba would consider not renewing it's defense agreement much earlier than 1988.

So if Ethiopia lost both Eritrea and Ogaden in 1978-79 there is strong chance that it may have actually disintegrated into the same anarchic chaos that Somalia did in 1991.

This would also be considered a major victory for the client state policy of the USA in the Cold War - having especially strong ramifications in Africa. The Somalian Army along with the Ogaden rebels were using a considerable amount of American military hardware. Could this have had an effect on the civil war in Angola and Zaire?

If Somalia had won this conflict and successfully annexed Ogaden I think that their next target would have been a large part (or the entirety) of Djibouti. Although a devoutly Islamic state (and considered an Arabic one as well) a large ethnic population of Issas Somalis live there. The port city of Djibouti would certainly have been a goal.

It's at this point that France would most likely have stepped in as a protector of Djibouti. Without US support the Somalian forces would be handily defeated by the French.

This would lead to great political instability in the region and instead of just Ethiopia descending into chaos and civil war you would have both Somalia and Ethiopia anarchic whilst is Djibouti under French military rule until Djibouti's neutrality is restablished.

 

[Agentdark]

Hmm, but being how Small Dijibouti is, could perhaps Somalia overun it very quickly, preventing the French from interveneing, and then we have a fairly powerful Somali state on the horn of Africa, and a badly disintigrated Ethiopia....

 

[Blitzhund]

Hmm, but being how Small Dijibouti is, could perhaps Somalia overun it very quickly, preventing the French from interveneing, and then we have a fairly powerful Somali state on the horn of Africa, and a badly disintigrated Ethiopia....

Interestingly enough, a strong united Somalia under a multi-clan leadership may have been enough to get Djibouti to accept annexation or an anschluss with Somalia. This would only be the case however if the united clan system remained with no one group gaining exclusive power after an Ogaden victory (which seems unlikely given the numbers of Ogaden tribesmen joining the Isaaq clan from that region).

So yes, a Greater Somalia could have existed. How long for before the clan system inevitably ripped itself apart is a different story.

Now if Djibouti choses to fight (which is more likely), there's a number of factors that may buy it enough time for French paratroops to get there. If this conflict occurs anytime before 1983 then there is a contingent of armed French engineers in the country which approximated 2,000. As well, permanently stationed in Djibouti is the 13th French Foreign Legion. These guys are some of France's best and have a long pedigree of fighting well. Their numbers are around 2,500. I think 4,500 French troops would be enough to hold their positions (even against overwhelming odds) against the Somali army long enough for French reinforcements to arrive.

 

[Tucker Dwynn]

...and for a French Carrier to get on station with top of the line fighters...

 

[Wendell]

Hmm, but being how Small Dijibouti is, could perhaps Somalia overun it very quickly, preventing the French from interveneing, and then we have a fairly powerful Somali state on the horn of Africa, and a badly disintigrated Ethiopia....

Not if the Somali state wishes to survive without international condemnation and sanctions.

 

[Michael B]

Not if the Somali state wishes to survive without international condemnation and sanctions.

International sanctions aren't that bad if you don't mind being poor, occasionally thin your population out with the odd famine and stay in power. Ask North Korea.

 

[TheMann]

Could be an interesting concept.

It would mean a big black eye for Ethiopia. Could it mean chaos? If somebody shoots Mengistu, chaos could result - but then again, with Ethiopia's military having a pretty solid structure, it might not.

Somalia was only defeated because the Communist Bloc countries came calling with plenty of firepower. What if the US and other developed nations also sent help? I can see Israel doing it, because of the Falasha and the tendency of Communist governments to attack religious people.

 

[Hamurabi]

Actually ethiopia was defeated in 77.
it lost most of its armour and suffered heavy losses.
The somalis captured 90% of the ogaden before the cubans and eastern bloc armies kicked them out.

for somalia to keep the ogaden, they would need better diplomacy,
no pissing of the soviets, letting the WSLF continue the war, as a proxy,
and waiting for a good time to pounce.

1985 was the ideal time becuase the ethiopian millitary and mengistus regime was disintegraing and gorbachev decided to stop funding him, by 1985.


as for djibouti, it is already a somali dominated state.
and in 75 somalia accepted its independance from france.



the next target would have been kenya, as the NFD was contested and contained another million somalis, who were not integrated fully into kenya.

 

[Wendell]

This map from Wiki may be helpful here:

 

[Thande]

This map from Wiki may be helpful here:

This map from Wiki is even more apposite

 

[Michael B]

for somalia to keep the ogaden, they would need better diplomacy,no pissing of the soviets, letting the WSLF continue the war, as a proxy,and waiting for a good time to pounce.

1985 was the ideal time becuase the ethiopian millitary and mengistus regime was disintegraing and gorbachev decided to stop funding him, by 1985.

as for djibouti, it is already a somali dominated state.
and in 75 somalia accepted its independance from france.

In other words a time when no great power cares whether or not the Somalis have conquered part of another country

the next target would have been kenya, as the NFD was contested and contained another million somalis, who were not integrated fully into kenya.

Britain might very well object and send air and ground forces.

More generally, Wendell's map puts the position quite nicely, namely a rather ramshackle set up where there is no real overall authority, and that is just Somalia within its own borders. Greater Somalia is going to be more of the same with powerful warlords running sections to their own benefit. Very much like Medieval England or France.

 

[Blitzhund]

as for djibouti, it is already a somali dominated state.
and in 75 somalia accepted its independance from france.

Djibouti prides itself in it's neutrality. As well the Somalis that live there do not consider themselves a part of greater Somalia. You make it sound as if Djibouti was/is a Somali puppet state. Nothing could be further from the truth.

 

[Hamurabi]

ofcourse it is not a puppet state, however france has always had influence.
what i was alluding to is that it is dominated by a single party dictatorship,
controlled by the isse somali clan.

somalis make up 55-60 percent of the population.
the afar 30-35 %

 

[Dan1988]

Here's an alternate idea: how about instead of a Greater Somalia, what if Ethiopia (either during the reign of Haile Selassie or during the Italian occupation during WW2) has as a constitutent part the area we know as "Somalia"? With the Italian occupation, it could be that the Italians decide to unify Somalia, Abyssinia, and Eritrea into one colony. Or, after WW2, it is decided that (as with Eritrea) a federation with Ethiopia would be the best course for Somalia's future - and that would be under Haile Selassie's reign.

 

[Hamurabi]

interesting.

in that situation i would expect a war of liberation to start much sooner than it did in Eritrea, and to be more sucessfull.

Eritrean political awarnes came about as a result of Ethiopian annextation,
after the 50's while somalis first political parties were formed in the 30's.

The strongest support and aid to the eritrean rebels came from the arab states, and somalis have stronger links and already had a diaspora living in the arab world during the 50's.

and most importantly ethiopia did not have enough power to hold the territory it already had.

The Ogaden is the most underdeveloped area in the Horn of Africa, becuase
its been a constant warzone for the past 100 years, even today
few if any recognize ethiopian authority, and al the clans ignore the border and travel to and fro without interferance.

 

[Kidblast]

Here's an alternate idea: how about instead of a Greater Somalia, what if Ethiopia (either during the reign of Haile Selassie or during the Italian occupation during WW2) has as a constitutent part the area we know as "Somalia"? With the Italian occupation, it could be that the Italians decide to unify Somalia, Abyssinia, and Eritrea into one colony. Or, after WW2, it is decided that (as with Eritrea) a federation with Ethiopia would be the best course for Somalia's future - and that would be under Haile Selassie's reign.

I've seen on old maps where Ethiopia has all of Somalia in it's borders.

 

[Dan1988]

There you go.