How powerful could Italy have become by 1940 if it wasn't run by a strutting buffoon?
- Thread starter Johnrankins
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It could certainly limit its reliance on France and GB for raw materials, have a better industry and have a better military leadership which is enough to not be constantly reliant on Germany (if they still are on the same side).
Driftless
Donor
Wasn't the biggest issue for financial growth the limit of native industrial resources, such as petroleum, iron ore, coal and other materials? They would need some skillful diplomacy to gain safe and sustainable access to those type of resources. Libyan oil was a potential, but needed some scientific and engineering advancements to achieve economical access to it.
If Italy gets involved militarily it's going to struggle anyways, methinks. Italian soldiers were very well disciplined and trained, but Italian leadership was laughably incompetent and corrupt. It'd take a shakedown of the entire military which I don't think anybody would really like.
Italy could have been a pretty reasonably-powerful nation with a POD in the 1800's, I feel, especially if the Italian rulers during the Risorgimento had been more focused on general improvement and not their own tenuous holds on power. We might have seen Italy emerge several decades earlier and in a form more like Germany, with many royals and perhaps an emperor or even as a sort of confederation. An Italy not as heavily rooted in the North could potentially have focused more on internal development in the beginning, especially bringing the South up to a higher standard of living and industrial power, and could have been more of a heavy-hitter in regions like the Balkans. A stable Italy at an early-enough point could also gain a bigger foothold in Africa and perhaps intervene in the Balkans enough to snag land like Albania or a sphere over Greece or the like. Likewise, an Italy which approached the Great War with more precision and calculation could have gained a great deal only to remain neutral, which would, in the post-war world, make them richer and more stable.
If you solely mean how strong Italy could be if Mussolini had not come to power, then I think that the difference is negligible. At best, Italy might snag some concessions from sympathetic or needy allies, but the Kingdom of Italy had a lot of innate issues with administration and governance that would take several generations to work out, if they ever did at all. I hate to give Mussolini a compliment, but at least his regime focused on improving the output of Italy--without Fascism, Italy would sort of drift into the sphere of France or Britain as it became dependant on certain resources.
If you solely mean how strong Italy could be if Mussolini had not come to power, then I think that the difference is negligible. At best, Italy might snag some concessions from sympathetic or needy allies, but the Kingdom of Italy had a lot of innate issues with administration and governance that would take several generations to work out, if they ever did at all. I hate to give Mussolini a compliment, but at least his regime focused on improving the output of Italy--without Fascism, Italy would sort of drift into the sphere of France or Britain as it became dependant on certain resources.
A surviving Murat Naples unifying Italy in the Spring of Nations in 1848 would be interesting.
I have to ask, what is the alternative to a strutting buffoon? Italy was politically unstable and the buffoon was competent enough to come to power in that environment. When I read, "How powerful could Italy have become by 1940 if it wasn't run by a strutting buffoon" I immediately think of France and a series of ineffective governments. Not saying Mussolini was good, but removing him doesn't automatically make the alternative better.
It doesn’t matter how competent a leader is if they’re constantly on the verge of being thrown out of office. People don’t seem to understand how chaotic and volatile Italian politics and elections were pre-Mussolini (and post-Mussolini). If the average term of a Prime Minister is only one or two years, then they can at best only accomplish some basic stuff before their collation falls apart because the next political opportunist felt it was time for their turn in the spotlight.
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Exactly. It is hard to make Italy much stronger if its governments last rarely more than two years and almost never even one electrotal term. You should really stabilise Italian politics firstly. Mussolini wasn't before WW2 that incompetent buffoon. Yes, he was horrible dictator and made idiotic mistakes but him had too attempts to make Italy true great power and had some degree success. His big mistake was to ally with Germany.
Maybe the OP wants another fascist leader, who is more competent than Mussolini, in charge?
Perhaps some assassination attempt of Mussolini in 1920's is succesful and he is succeeded by Balbo. He seems one of few top-ranked fascist who could had been more competent than Mussolini. At least he wouldn't had allied with Hitler.
Exactly. And Mussolini was still duce of Italy.
But it is indeed difficult get for Italy very great history after the unification. Even if you keep Italy out of WW1 or avoid whole the war, it is probably bit better than Spain. As great power it would be just mid-level power.
I don't think a Cavour-led Piedmont would've let that happen; however, with Murat being more supportive of the rebellion than any Bourbon would've been, the war could've gone better for Italy, and it's possible that a federal setup (dominated by Naples and Piedmont) could've emerged - IRL, Cavour wanted Piedmontese hegemony over northern Italy so, as long as Naples is friendly, Piedmont won't bother with trying to annex the south.
That's assuming Nap III gives his support to the Piedmontese when there is Murat-dynasty Kingdom of Naples and Murat and successors could champion themselves as the leaders of the Italian identity, who's more important half of the Italian Peninsula (who is under liberals ITTL) or the Kingdom of Piedmont-Sardinia?
There might be an earlier WW2 or an German-Italian war over Austria.