Hungary Joins NATO, 1956

[danielb1]

This is borderline-ASB, but...

On November 3, 1956, just a matter of hours before the OTL Soviet Invasion of Hungary, NATO admits Hungary as its newest member. Effectively, this means that any Soviet attack on Hungary will result in WWIII. It is also a huge kick in the USSR's face. It is also along the lines of what I would like to have done, if I were President then (just a hint, most of you would NOT like my Cold War presidency style, there's half a chance I would start WWIII...), although getting the French, Italians, etc to go along might be difficult.

WWIII or does Nikita Kruschev give in?

An alternate possibility: what if, instead, Yugoslavia (the 'non-Soviet' communist state) signed a mutual defense pact with Hungary? Kind of a mutual-suicide pact, unless both came to an agreement with NATO, but still...

 

[MerryPrankster]

Would NATO be able to defend Hungary? Much of Britain and France's active military was in the Suez at the time.

 

[backstab]

Would NATO be able to defend Hungary? Much of Britain and France's active military was in the Suez at the time.

I think that Russia would risk war to keep Hungary in its Sphere Of Influence. Dont think NATO would stand much of a chance back in 1956

 

[MerryPrankster]

I think that Russia would risk war to keep Hungary in its Sphere Of Influence. Dont think NATO would stand much of a chance back in 1956

We had more nukes than they did, even if they had a larger conventional army.

Of course, I don't think Eisenhower would be willing to risk a nuclear conflict over a country that had been, a mere decade before, an Axis ally.

 

[aktarian]

In Europe division of spheres of influence was firm and set in stone. No country was allowed to change sides. So even if hungary had asked for NATO membership it would be denied.

 

[MarkA]

In Europe division of spheres of influence was firm and set in stone. No country was allowed to change sides. So even if hungary had asked for NATO membership it would be denied.

It most certainly would be declined membership. Such an act by NATO would be a declaration of war. No member country of the Alliance would sanction such a crazy decision.

 

[mikegold]

John Foster Dulles was for something similar, I believe.

 

[Electric Monk]

So can we get a crazy US president to say yes? Ignore Europe's opinion or bring UK/France on board by supporting their Suez action.

I think though that this would require a stronger conventional forces NATO and weaker nuclear weapons build-up on all sides.

Is there a reasonable POD in the not-to-distant past to get a) larger Western conventional forces (or closer balanced against the Warsaw Pact) b) less nuclear weapons or less willingness to use them and c) crazy US President while still making it likely that Hungary will try and split from the Soviets?

 

[Susano]

Didnt the Hungarians pretty much win the first round of the Revolution? If the Sovjets get a really bloody nose, which is possible, they might just back down withoutthere being a war between the blocks.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Didnt the Hungarians pretty much win the first round of the Revolution? If the Sovjets get a really bloody nose, which is possible, they might just back down withoutthere being a war between the blocks.

I believe the Hungarian insurgents toppled the Communist government and the Soviets were beginning to withdraw.

Then Khruschev changed his mind and the Soviet army came back in. The regular Hungarian army had dissolved and the insurgents weren't able to defeat the Soviets (who did not use infantry b/c they feared fraternization with the enemy).

POD could be that the Hungarian military remains intact during the overthrow of the pro-Soviet regime and then when the Soviets abort their withdrawl, they give the Commies a good kick to the teeth.

What's interesting is that apparently the Hungarian rebels were democratic socialists or syndicalists--the resulting government might be rather strange.

EDIT: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1956_Hungarian_Revolution

It seems that the Hungarian Army was still intact, but not well-coordinated. Most of the fighting was done by worker militias.

 

[Homer]

Anyway, I the Soviets decide to keep Hungary, they certainly could.

But besides that, I think NATO won't accept Hungarian membership. As is stated above, that would be like a declaration of war. they never interfered directly in a crisis behind the iron curtain, not in East Germany 1953, not in Poland, not in Czechoslovakia 1956.

I personally think that Chruchtchew was quite reasonable, he might actually had accepted Hungary to leave Soviet influence. But that would probably be his last decision, he would be imprisoned and some more radical Politburo-member and probably former General would take power. Thus war would probably just be delayed.