If Scotland remained Catholic, could James VI still become King of England?

[Fabius Maximus]

Let the PoD be that Elizabeth doesn't send troops north of the border to help the Protestants in 1560, and without her aid, the Protestants are defeated and Scotland remains Catholic. James VI is born six years later as per OTL, but ITTL he's naturally raised Catholic rather than Protestant. Elizabeth still doesn't marry, leaving James as her closest living relative when she dies in 1603.

Could James still become King of England ITTL? On the one hand, the hereditary principle was adhered to quite strictly in this period -- even Mary had made no attempts to pass over Elizabeth in favour of a Catholic successor, for example -- but on the other hand, Protestantism had had a good generation or more to bed in by the time of Elizabeth's death, and the country might not accept the possibility of a Protestant monarch. On the other other hand, a Catholic Scotland would make a good base for Catholic missionaries and efforts to smuggle priests into the country, so Catholicism might be doing better than IOTL, particularly in the north of England.

 

[Mildtryth]

Let the PoD be that Elizabeth doesn't send troops north of the border to help the Protestants in 1560, and without her aid, the Protestants are defeated and Scotland remains Catholic. James VI is born six years later as per OTL, but ITTL he's naturally raised Catholic rather than Protestant. Elizabeth still doesn't marry, leaving James as her closest living relative when she dies in 1603.

Could James still become King of England ITTL? On the one hand, the hereditary principle was adhered to quite strictly in this period -- even Mary had made no attempts to pass over Elizabeth in favour of a Catholic successor, for example -- but on the other hand, Protestantism had had a good generation or more to bed in by the time of Elizabeth's death, and the country might not accept the possibility of a Protestant monarch. On the other other hand, a Catholic Scotland would make a good base for Catholic missionaries and efforts to smuggle priests into the country, so Catholicism might be doing better than IOTL, particularly in the north of England.

Henry VIII had stipulated in his will that in the line of succession, the descendants of his younger sister Mary would follow immediately after his own children. That meant excluding the kings of Scotland, who were descendants of his elder sister Margaret. Until 1594, the front-runner for succession in these terms was Ferdinando Stanley, the Earl of Derby, but he died in 1594, and it was only after that that James began looking like a more viable option, because aside of himself, the other main male claimant was Edward Seymour, who was rumored to be illegitimate. There was Ferdinando's brother, William, as well, but technically he was behind Ferdinando's three daughters on the line. I presume that if Scotland stays Catholic, there will be more pressure to adhere to Henry VIII's will, but who's going to succeed under these conditions is hard to say.