If the Tokugawa Shogunate survives would the Qing collapse?

[EasternRomanEmpire]

After the loss in the First Sino-Japanese War, the Qing created the New Army which was the best trained & equipped, the revolutionaries managed to infiltrate the ranks of the army and played an essential role in the rebellion that overthrew the Qing in 1911 and created the Republic of China.
If the Meiji Restoration hadn't happened and therefore Japan doesn't invade China, meaning that the New Army isn't created, would the Qing still collapse? Knowing that several uprising had failed in the past.

 

[Lalli]

After the loss in the First Sino-Soviet War, the Qing created the New Army which was the best trained & equipped, the revolutionaries managed to infiltrate the ranks of the army and played an essential role in the rebellion that overthrew the Qing in 1911 and created the Republic of China.
If the Meiji Restoration hadn't happened and therefore Japan doesn't invade China, meaning that the New Army isn't created, would the Qing still collapse? Knowing that several uprising had failed in the past.

Do you mean First Sino-Japanese War? Fall of Qing predates even October Revolution by some years.

But I think that at this point Qing was doomed no matter what unless Cixi die suddenly and her successor is very reformist mind. True that all rebellions were failures but evevntually some would succeed.

 

[EasternRomanEmpire]

Do you mean First Sino-Japanese War? Fall of Qing predates even October Revolution by some years.

I edited it.

But I think that at this point Qing was doomed no matter what unless Cixi die suddenly and her successor is very reformist mind. True that all rebellions were failures but eventually some would succeed.

The regent wasn't against reforms, the problem was that many in the government opposed reforms and the reforms they wanted to do weren't enough, you would have a lot of problems to achieve a transformation like Japan and that is assuming no one intervenes while you do to prevent your modernization process.