Jimmy Two: America in Carter's Second Term
- Thread starter Vidal
- Start date
Going on the balance of probabilities I'd assume Kemp wins in '84, tries governing as reagan-lite with some more left but not radical democrat winning in a landslide in '92. Why a D win this year? The Conservative champion after reagan geting full credit for the late 80s to early 90s recession. Mario Cuomo seems likely.
I would imagine that the American Conservative movement would take one hell of a hit from this election. Not only did Reagan lose but Goldwater, the trailblazer, the one who started it all got knocked out by a relative political nobody. Hell, they knocked out Javits at last but couldn't get New York, and Helms doesn't even get his buddy to join him in the Senate, even better! Sad as I am to see McGovern go, I do absolutely get why he got defeated, same goes for Bayh. But it's really interesting to see candidates like Kasten, Denton, Gorton and Symms lose as well, especially given the opposition to Church in the case of Symms. Glad he'll get to spend his last four years in the senate, at any rate. The shitshow of Mike Gravel still sticking around makes sense, as does the weirdness of New Hampshire. Pennsylvania flipping is a shock as is Florida holding.
Given the amount of Democrats in the House and Senate, a net loss makes a lot of sense. I'm surprised by how limited the House's losses are for them though, it definitely seems like they overperformed there.
Arthur A Link retaining makes total sense, from all I've read had the 1980 election not been what it was it seemed likely he'd walk another term with no issue.
All in all a really interesting Congress we have shaping up here.
Given the amount of Democrats in the House and Senate, a net loss makes a lot of sense. I'm surprised by how limited the House's losses are for them though, it definitely seems like they overperformed there.
Arthur A Link retaining makes total sense, from all I've read had the 1980 election not been what it was it seemed likely he'd walk another term with no issue.
All in all a really interesting Congress we have shaping up here.
Gravel does lose ITTL, too. We get Murkowski in Alaska.
It may be an urban legend, but there's an argument to be made that the fact the race was called within an hour of polls closing on the East Coast, and Carter conceding early, likely cost O'Neill some seats in races where voting was still happening as Democrats decided to stay home. I don't think this completely explains it, of course, but removing that variable in and of itself and then combining it with the generally better atmosphere for Dems ITTL helps Tip O'Neill a lot.
What's also good is that the Liberal Democrats are much stronger after ATL 1980. Hopefully this means the Democrats will avoid the moderation of OTL and stay true to their roots
I don't think that's really possible especially since they are most likely to lose in 84 to someone most likely a moderate Republican.
I don't think Kemp is gonna win in 84, especially after Reagan lost the GOP might turn to the Nixon-Ford wing and stick with that so we will probably see some moderate Republicans like Howard Baker, George Bush, or even Lamar Alexander win in 84.
Part II
Part II: The Second Term
January 20, 1981 - January 20, 1985
"For this generation, ours, life is nuclear survival; liberty is human rights; the pursuit of happiness is a planet whose resources are devoted to the physical and spiritual nourishment of its inhabitants."
-Jimmy Carter
"The happy ending is our national belief."
-Mary McCarthy
January 20, 1981 - January 20, 1985
"For this generation, ours, life is nuclear survival; liberty is human rights; the pursuit of happiness is a planet whose resources are devoted to the physical and spiritual nourishment of its inhabitants."
-Jimmy Carter
"The happy ending is our national belief."
-Mary McCarthy
10. Early Days
EARLY DAYS
“I have wondered at times what the Ten Commandments would have looked like if Moses had run them through the US Congress.”
-Ronald Reagan
January 20, 1981
“I have wondered at times what the Ten Commandments would have looked like if Moses had run them through the US Congress.”
-Ronald Reagan
Rancho del Cielo — Goleta, CA
In Washington, Jimmy Carter raised his right hand to God and took the Oath of Office for a second term. In California, Ronald Reagan had his right hand wrapped around a chainsaw. He was clearing brush.
He’d thought about it all in the days since the election. The hostage crisis imploding Kennedy’s campaign. Connally and Bush conspiring against him, dividing the Party for as long as they could. Choosing Kemp. God, he thought as he brought the chainsaw down against the limb of a tree. Jack Kemp. Why did I listen to Roger Stone? There was the whole mess with the gay teachers. The rumors Kemp was a homosexual himself. A mess. Then, Carter got shot. Nancy took him off the trail as much as she could. Said the debate would go awry. He’d listened to her. It wasn’t her fault — she was probably right. I might’ve lost by double if we’d gone ahead with the debate, he thought.
Ronald Reagan wasn’t sure who to blame. Maybe it was all John Sears’ fault. The strategy had been wrong from the beginning. It was meant to convey strength — that Reagan was above the fray — but instead it gave Connally and Bush time to go out and meet voters while Reagan looked like an entitled coastal elite. Coastal elite. He hated the thought he could be compared to one.
With gloved hands to protect against the prickers, he grabbed a series of branches and tossed them to the right. He inched closer with the chainsaw.
Government is not the solution to our problems. Government is the problem. He would’ve said something like that today, if he’d been there. If he’d been elected. He wouldn’t have shied away from the Right — the people who got him to the White House. He’d have worked with Democrats fine, sure, but they’d have had to work with him. He’d be the president.
Didn’t matter. He didn’t win.
Nancy called out to him. “Ronnie, do you want to come in and watch?” Nancy. She can’t help herself. It tortured her more than it did him. She still wasn’t over it. Didn’t know why Reagan didn’t ask for a rematch. Wanted to know what he was going to do in ’84. What am I doing in 1984? This! He’d thought to himself. But he couldn’t tell her that. It would break her spirit. She believed in him, and despite all of the hesitations she had about him, about his safety, about the scrutiny of public office, she felt more stung by the fact he’d gone out there and lost. The American people made a mistake! You can’t let people get away with a mistake. They had to prove they’d been right. It was time to win again.
But Reagan had done it three times already. A fourth campaign — at 73 years old? No way was Reagan up to it. He knew it. The press knew it. Nancy knew it. Even Nancy knew it.
He looked back at her and smiled. Nancy. Oh how he loved her.
“I’m alright out here,” he shouted back over the din of the idling chainsaw. “I’m alright out here…”
She nodded, arms crossed, the look on her face. The look. She’d been wearing it ever since the results came back. Defeat. Shame. Sympathy. She was hurt — hurt by it all. Oh alright, he thought to himself, and he took his gloves off and threw them down. Put the chainsaw down. And he walked back up to the house. She had been there for him. Always.
As he got nearer to the house, as he thought about the image of everyone gathered around Jimmy Carter the twice-elected president, it really hit him. His chest tightened. The corner of his eye watered just enough for him to feel it. It was over. It was over.
January 28, 1981
The White House — Washington, DC
Thank God Reagan dragged Kemp out with him, Bob Dole thought to himself as he waited for this meeting with President Carter. Bob Dole was a traditional Republican, not one of those voodoo economists who thought you could slash the amount of money the government took in and then suddenly the government would make more money. No, that wasn’t for him. He was as straight as they came, and he was a traditional Republican who didn’t like bloated government — and didn’t like government deficits. The government should live within its means. That’s what Bob Dole thought. That’s what Bob Dole told voters back home. That’s what Bob Dole told reporters here in Washington. If you cut taxes, you reduce revenue. And if we don’t balance our budget — well, Jimmy Carter was right about this: Inflation would get worse. Not that Bob Dole would say that out loud.
He looked around, at the others who were here for this early roundtable conversation about the budget. Good group. Great group. Fine group. No Kemp. That was enough for Dole. No Kemp. He didn’t trust Jack Kemp with his phony math or his supply-side nonsense. He wanted to get the budget balanced, and he even believed that Jimmy Carter might want the same thing. There was also Something Else on his mind.
In 1984, America would need a new president. Didn’t matter if Jimmy Carter were the most popular sonofabitch in the office since Washington. He was out. Back to Plains. Thank goodness, Bob Dole thought. And he wasn’t exactly worried about a sudden rise in popularity for Mr. Carter, either. The way Bob Dole saw it: The Republicans would need a strong candidate. And what, exactly, had George Bush done? He’d have four more years out of office. Irrelevance. You don’t see George Bush on television anymore, Bob Dole knew. And Bob Dole thought about that a lot. All Bob Dole had to do to finally become president — to improve upon that embarrassing go of it four years earlier — was show he was the adult in the room. The guy with the plan. Bob Dole had to make friends during this Midterms coming up. Bob Dole has to be out there a lot campaigning. All of that was true. But he had to have something else — something to show voters. And that would be his work on the Senate Finance Committee, on which he was now the Ranking Republican.
So, that’s why Bob Dole was happy that Jack Kemp got dragged out of Washington. Reagan’s Hail Mary didn’t work out, did it? Heh heh heh. Not a bit. Worked out for Bob Dole, though, Bob Dole thought as he looked around and waited for this meeting.
Kemp was one of the loudest voices in the Republican Party for the voodoo economics — Bob Dole wished that Bob Dole had thought of that phrase — that made Bob Dole’s life harder. How can you balance a budget if you don’t make any money? It was lunacy. Now, it had been chased out of Washington. That’s how Bob Dole chose to saw it. So, he knew, that the next budget would constrain the deficit — shrink it as much as possible. He’d insist on it. And then, by the time they had these conversations in ’83, when Bob Dole was Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee — well, they’d balance the damn thing. And Bob Dole would be The Man Who Balanced The Budget. And Bob Dole would be The Man Running Against Mondale. And then, Bob Dole would be The President. That was the Something Else Bob Dole thought about often. And he had it all mapped out in his head.
The door swung open and Bob Dole and the rest of them stood up as the president entered. “Take your seats, everyone,” Carter said. He wanted to get right down to business.
“Good morning, everyone. Thank you all for being here.” Carter looked around and nodded. Byrd and Baker. Long and Dole. O’Neill and Michel. Rostenkowski and Conable. Everyone who needed to be in the room for a conversation about the federal budget was there, and the president was eager to get to business.
“I have just sent you a Fiscal Year 1982 budget that contains our federal deficit in relative terms more than any budget so far in my presidency. We will keep the deficit to less-than-1-percent of our gross national product.”
Bob Dole smiled.
“I know there was much conversation about tax cuts out on the campaign trail. I am open to your ideas, but allow me to explain what I am proposing. This budget takes a major step in a long-term tax reduction program that is designed to increase capital formation. I see this as solving two problems: Our energy needs and the slowdown of productivity in our economy. We need to make it easier for investments to be made in energy production and other sectors of the economy. My budget makes that possible.
“I am proposing a major liberalization of tax allowances for depreciation, as well as simplified depreciation accounting, increasing the allowable rates by about 40-percent.” Some of the legislators were scribbling notes. Some staffers were. Bob Dole was listening. 40-percent. “We can also improve the investment tax credit by making it refundable, to help firms with no current earnings. I believe these changes will yield a significant long-term benefit to our nation’s productivity and our economy as a whole.
“At the same time, I am asking you to postpone, for one year, the personal tax reductions I had earlier proposed to take effect this year. This change will offset the cost of the earlier proposals I mentioned, and it will help to control the federal deficit in real dollars and as a percentage of the gross national product.” [1]
The meeting itself represented the immediate impact of Carter’s decision to keep Jack Watson on as Chief of Staff. Here he was hosting Congressional leaders at the outset of a negotiation over the federal budget. There was no expectation that he would simply have the votes. Watson understood the numbers. Republicans had made some gains in the House and Senate despite Carter’s victory, and that meant the fight over spending and taxation would be even more difficult.
Kemp-Roth had nearly passed the Congress before, but Carter mobilized against it in time to kill it, which wasn’t easy to do considering California voters went to the polls in ’78 and said “Absolutely not” to the idea of wanting to pay taxes.
And now, this time, Carter had some additional, if unlikely, friends on the Hill. Friends like Bob Dole.
February 1, 1981
The Kemp Residence — Buffalo, NY
Is there a path back for me? Jack Kemp had been wondering it ever since Election Night 1980. He’d been in New York, away from Reagan and the staff, when he heard the news: He’d lost. He never really considered losing when Reagan asked him to join the ticket. He’d be honored, he’d told the nominee, and so he’d signed up. But then — everything started to fall apart.
He blamed Connally. He blamed Reagan and Spencer. None of them had wanted to come to his defense. I tried to save us. I tried to win them back, he thought, but then Reagan had clammed up — threw him under the bus. Said Kemp didn’t understand the world. All Reagan had done was piss off the Right even more than Kemp had. The hardest part for Kemp was figuring out what to say about it all.
“Where do you think it went wrong, Congressman?” Elizabeth Drew asked again.
“I think everything sort of fell President Carter’s way,” Kemp offered. But Drew wanted more. She sensed it in him — the anger, the regret, the resentment. But she didn’t know who it was directed at, and she needed to know.
“Do you think the Reagan campaign did enough to deny those rumors on your behalf?”
“I think the blame for that lies with all of you — with the press corps. Those sorts of questions do not belong in the public discourse, especially when, for many years, they’d been proven incorrect.”
Drew was getting somewhere now, and she leaned back in her chair. Tapped her pen against her notepad. How was she going to get there? Tap. Tap. The pen was thudding quicker and quicker. Tap. Tap. Tap. How do I word it?
“But don’t you see, Congressman, how one might say — You said publicly during the campaign that you did not think gay teachers belonged in public schools —”
Kemp interrupted, “That’s not what I said. This is the problem.” He sighed. “I said that local school boards should have the option.”
“Fair enough,” Drew conceded. That wasn’t central to where she was going. Kemp was wrong — lying through his teeth. He’d said that, sure, but he’d also said what his personal opinion was — that the gay teachers should stay out of the classroom. No matter. That isn’t what she was trying to ask. “So why is it that a local school board should be able to consider a potential teacher’s sexuality when making a hiring decision, but voters should not be able to consider a potential vice president’s sexuality when making a hiring decision?”
She’s got me there. “Those rumors had been laid to rest years ago. The press was dredging up bile. If I’d been caught in bed with a man — well, fine, I suppose. Ask away. ‘Why was I in bed with him?’ Sure, that’s fair. But these were rumors whipped up decades earlier, and they’d been demonstrated to be false. It was unfair to resurface them. It caused my family a great deal of pain.”
“But most Americans weren’t familiar with them —”
“Because they were false.”
“But your insistence that they’d been ‘demonstrated to be false’ — how was that the case? Just because there was never an article confirming they’d happened didn’t mean that there shouldn’t be a pursuit of the rumors. We reporters had never seen you prove it.”
And all at once it hit Kemp: I’m never getting through this. For the rest of my life they’re going to wonder if I stuck it up some guy’s ass at a lakeside cabin thirty years ago. They’re always going to wonder where my eyes were in that locker room. Goddamnit. “I think it’s time to move on.”
• • •
After Drew left a few hours later, Jack Kemp went up to his bedroom and looked out the window. Snow was falling in Buffalo — where it seemed he’d be for the rest of his life.
He had lost his seat in the House — given it up, really, for the shot of being Reagan’s number two. [2] He thought they’d have eight good years, and then the Republicans would turn to him: The Guy Who Made Reagan. Who Served Reagan. And he would be their standard bearer, and the country’s president, for another eight. It all went so wrong.
It upset Kemp a great deal, and he was equally distressed by what was happening in Washington. Jack Kemp had always been an Ideas Man. Bob Dole, George Bush — they’d dismissed his ideas. They thought his ideas weren’t worth the revenue they’d collect from taxes, but Jack Kemp saw the vision: You cut the taxes. You let businesses make more money. You let the rich get richer — because it would trickle down. With their money and their capital, they’d invest. They’d grow the next businessman. Make the next millionaire. It all made so much sense in his mind that Jack Kemp couldn’t believe others didn’t see it.
There was still Bill Roth left in the Senate. They’d come so close a couple of years ago. Nearly got it across the finish line. They were supposed to do it when Reagan won. But all of that was in the past now. Kemp could think only of the future — what would Carter do to the economy? Would it feel like malaise in ’84? Would the Party ever come back to him? Or am I finished? Kemp didn’t know, but he wondered as the snow fell gently to the ground outside his Buffalo home.
February 26, 1981
Capitol Building — Washington, DC
Russell Long had about enough of the newcomers, and now he felt like he had to say as much. The tax debate had been swirling around the Capitol all year, and Long wanted to reframe the conversation. There was the Roth bill. There was the Bradley-Gephardt bill. Long did the numbers. They didn’t add up — and worse, they hurt the oil companies. They hurt business. He could come around to Carter’s idea, which was meant to expand capital, but he couldn’t come around to anything that might simplify the tax code — that was just Washingtonspeak for sticking it to the oil companies. Well, Russell Long represented Louisiana. And he wanted to remind this Senator from New Jersey that he was the Chairman of the Finance Committee.
Bill Bradley played on the New York Knicks for 10 years. He was a two-time NBA champion, an NBA All-Star, and when he hung up his jersey to enter politics, the Knicks retired his number (24). When he made the leap into politics, Mo Udall said he had the right experience — and by that, Udall was referring to Bradley’s time as a professional athlete. The way Bradley saw it: Passing legislation was like winning a basketball game. You just kept passing the ball, letting others take their shots.
Once he got to Washington, Bradley tended to keep to himself. He was like that student in college who was always in the library, his nose in the textbook, taking notes for a class he was just auditing. Bill Bradley didn’t want anyone to dismiss him because he was an athlete. He was intelligent. He had big ideas. And he thought Jimmy Carter’s second term was the right time to initiate them.
The president’s budget proposal was fine. Carter was obsessed with getting the deficit down, and Bradley didn’t mind that so much — Republicans were quick to label him and his colleagues tax-and-spend liberals. Bradley didn’t like that, and he was perfectly happy to have Jimmy Carter to shield them from the label (not that Spencer or Stone or Sears or any of the other GOP operatives seemed to care too much). But Bill Bradley had been working on a Big Idea — the Biggest Idea — and he was ready to see it through this Congress. He was confident he’d be able to find the support.
He just needed a lead sponsor in the House. That’s where Dick Gephardt came in.
Gephardt was on Ways and Means, so he was already going to be involved in a conversation about taxes no matter what, and he’d proven already that he wasn’t afraid of the White House. When Jimmy Carter and Ted Kennedy were duking it out over health care in the first term, Gephardt stood up and he fought back each of Carter’s proposals and then drafted his own bill with a Republican, David Stockman.
Charlie Rangel said Dick Gephardt’s bill was just a way “to do absolutely nothing,” but Gephardt didn’t care. He was a details man. He knew what he was doing. [3]
Bill Bradley wanted a details man to be on board with him because he was a details man. So, it only made sense that Bradley and Gephardt would get together and talk about tax reform, and it didn’t take long at all for Gephardt to sign on to the Fair Tax Act. Gephardt took a look, read it over, thought about it, and then he signed on.
In the midst of Carter’s efforts to shepherd through a business tax cut and constrain the deficit, Bill Bradley and Dick Gephardt decided to pose a question: Hey, what if we just re-wrote the entire tax code before passing this budget?
Tip O’Neill and Bob Byrd noticed quickly that the more Bradley and Gephardt talked about their bill, the more popular it got. And they also noticed that it was popular with quite a few Republicans. That made the bill bipartisan — and back in the day, bipartisan sold. So, there were hearings on the Bradley-Gephardt bill and the Carter White House went into a tizzy.
Jimmy Carter didn’t understand the Bradley/Gephardt bill. That isn’t to say he didn’t know how it would work, or didn’t know why it might be popular with some segments of the population. But Jimmy Carter couldn’t figure out why Bill Bradley and Dick Gephardt was introducing it. He was the president. He had prioritized reducing the deficit. He had put out a thorough FY 1982 budget proposal. Is it going to be like this every time? He couldn’t bear the thought. Surely, at some point, the Party will fall in line.
Bradley wasn’t worried. He went door-to-door in Dirksen and Russell, and he had meetings with everyone he could. He brought printed out charts and projections for budgets, and he told everyone the same thing: The people will love this. They’ll love it!
Half the Republicans only wanted to know one thing: Are taxes going down or up? Bradley told them that was the beauty of it — people were paying less in taxes and the system was simpler. More and more, Bradley found allies on the other side of the aisle. And then, Jimmy Carter decided to place a call.
“Senator.”
“Mister President. Thanks for calling.”
“I wanted to ask you what you’re hearing about the Bradley-Gephardt proposal. I’ve seen it’s making the rounds in your caucus?”
“Agh, more snake oil, Mister President.” [4]
“Bob, I need your help here to make sure we keep the deficit in check. I know we don’t agree on everything, but we have that in common.”
Bob Dole hated this. Working with Carter! How am I ever getting to the White House if I’m attached at the hip with this guy? But Bob Dole had his beliefs, and one of them was that they needed to balance the budget. It meant, sometimes, on days like today, you were in the company of strange bedfellows.
“I’ll do my part. You get Byrd to do his,” and that was all that needed to be said for Bob Dole to start working the bill harder than Bill Bradley. Nobody on the Hill — not Byrd or Baker, Thurmond or Long — could whip votes like Bob Dole. So Bob Dole went out to find the votes.
Reagan once joked that politics was the second oldest profession, and that it bore a striking resemblance to the oldest. He might’ve been on to something, because that’s how Bob Dole went out and kept his people in line.
Every night, before he went back to the Watergate, Bob Dole stopped by someone’s fundraiser. David Durenberger, senator from Minnesota, was going to have a tough go of it in ’82. So, Bob Dole showed up at one of his events with a check in his hand, and before he left he pulled Durenberger aside. “Whaddya think of that Bradley/Gephardt bill?” Then, he reminded Durenberger: Republicans couldn’t cede the issue of responsible budgeting to the Democrats. If Jimmy Carter balanced the budget and Republicans looked like they wanted to run up a deficit — well, that was a recipe for loss in November. He asked Durenberger to remember that — and to call him later. They could always talk more. Oh, and before he forgot! The check. Always the check.
He didn’t bother with Bill Roth, and he could’ve saved his money by skipping Weicker who wasn’t going to be on board with any proposal like Bradley’s, but he stopped by anyway. Who knew? Maybe Weicker could help with Something Else down the line. So, Bob Dole brought him a check. Asked him about the Bradley/Gephardt bill. Reminded him — Weicker knew, he said. Weicker knows. Don’t have to worry about Weicker.
And on it went: Lugar and Danforth, Schmitt and Heinz, Chafee and Hatch, Stafford and Wallop. Alotta Republicans up next cycle. Close seats. If they were going to keep the majority, they couldn’t cede the issue to Jimmy Carter. Couldn’t give him an inch.
Russell Long took to the Senate floor that morning to give everyone else a break. The president was working the phones. Bob Dole was handing out checks like he was President of Chase Manhattan. Bill Bradley and Dick Gephardt were scurrying around like mice. They thought they were on their way to finding the cheese, but really they were just trying to hide from the cat. Because the cat had just walked on to the Senate floor, and he wanted to be heard:
“Mr. President, good morning.” It was not to be a good morning for Bill Bradley, or Dick Gephardt, or even for Jimmy Carter.
Long stood on the Senate floor for twenty-two minutes and walked through the proposals. He wasn’t going to simplify the tax code, because the tax code was a tool. A tool for innovation. He liked Carter’s proposal for targeted measures that could spur innovation. That was fine with him. But Carter’s decision to postpone the tax cuts they’d passed? That wasn’t happening. The president had to understand that decisions about taxes fell in the purview of the Congress. This was their decision, and Russell Long thought most Americans deserved a break.
So he dashed the hopes of the Bradley-Gephardt bill. “Naive,” he called it. He said that it would hurt business, stifle commerce, blow up the real estate market. And the reporters up in the gallery kept noticing one thing: Russell Long’s hands. They weren’t waving around. They weren’t thumping against the rostrum. He didn’t point or punch. His hands stayed, almost the entire speech, resting on the podium, folded neatly, because Russell Long didn’t need to convince anyone with his speech. He didn’t need to sway them. He didn’t need to cajole them or inspire them or lead them to some promised land. No, Russell Long was the Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee. He just needed to remind them what was going to happen.
So he laid it all out for them. He was going to push for more breaks, more “incentives,” for the oil companies. Jimmy Carter wanted to solve the energy crisis? Then we had to drill for the oil that produced energy. Simple as that. And then Long moved on. Reminded everyone for the third or fourth time that the Bradley/Gephardt deal was dead. Just in case they hadn’t heard. And he circled back to the president’s proposal. A lot of it was fine, he said, but just in case the White House hadn’t got the message from when he’d fought them on taxes before: There would be a cut. Carter had already given his word to it. Surely, the president wasn’t a liar.
When he was done, Russell Long removed his hands from his pockets and organized the papers that carried his speech. “I yield back the balance of my time,” he said, and then he handed the speech off to an aide and walked off the floor. That was how a Chairman did it.
March 2, 1981
The White House — Washington, DC
Ham Jordan was just waiting for it. They were here again. First term all over again, he thought. Democrats on the Hill were giving the boss a hard time. But there was a new voice in the room, and the unfortunate part was she just didn’t get Jimmy.
“Mr. President, I think if we just had Senator Long over to the White House, and you hosted him for dinner, I think the two of you could just talk it out. I’m sure there’s room for agreement.”
A meal, with Russell Long, in the White House? Ham loved Anne — thought she was the smartest woman in politics, smarter than that new senator Liz Holtzman or that Lousiana Congresswoman Lindy Boggs. But she just didn’t get Jimmy Carter. There was a lot that surprised Carter about the job of being president, but one of the most offensive things he’d learned was he had to pay for all of the entertaining. It wasn’t like a fancy law firm where you could just bill a dinner as a company meeting. No. Not in the White House. So that’s why they didn’t serve liquor. Don’t these people get it? Ham thought. The peanut farm back home was in a blind trust. That was Carter’s whole net worth. The guy barely knew what his finances were because he didn’t want to know — not while he was president. He wasn’t doing this to get rich.
And then the idea of sitting down for a meal with someone who just took to the floor of the Senate and told the President of the United States that the big round room didn’t mean anything? Told Jimmy Carter to shove it — told Jimmy Carter he was writing the budget? Jimmy Carter doesn’t want to have dinner with Russell Long, because Jimmy Carter doesn’t like Russell Long. Poor Anne didn’t get that yet.
Carter was behind the desk, gripping a pen, radiating a chill that swept the whole room. It wasn’t supposed to be like this. Not the second term.
“I’m not doing it,” he said. “If Russell Long wants to write the budget, then Russell Long has to convince the American people he ought to. I’m the president,” Carter reminded her, “and that was my proposal. If he has an issue with it, he can come to me.”
Anne went to speak up, but Carter continued: “I can’t spend my time responding to every floor speech some senator makes.”
Some senator. Some senator! Russell Long is the Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee. Right now, he’s THE senator! “Mr. President, I really must urge you —”
Carter scoffed. “Don’t urge me,” he barked. “We need to get this over the finish line. What’s the plan?”
They all looked around. Nobody wanted to speak first. Some of them looked at Jordan, like he was some kind of Carter Whisperer. He was, of course, but he wasn’t a Congress Whisperer. That was Bill Cable’s job, and that’s why Jordan was looking at Cable.
Feeling Jordan’s eyes, Cable cleared his throat and put forward a plan: It was up to Fritz, the way he saw it. Mondale had to go to the Hill, talk to Bradley and Gephardt and get them to drop the whole thing.
And then, Mondale had to go to Long. Had to tell Long that they were happy to have him on board in defeating Bradley/Gephardt, but they needed him to come around on the other parts. They needed to work in tandem, or the Republicans were going to tear them apart in the midterms.
Not happening, Mondale thought to himself.
Mondale decided he had to speak up now: “There’s a saying in politics — I think we all know it. ‘Oh that person wouldn’t lose an election unless he was caught in bed with a live boy or a dead girl.’” They all knew it, but they shifted a little uncomfortably. Where was Fritz going with all this? “Russell Long could be caught in bed with both of ‘em, and he’d still win in a landslide. You’re not going to scare him with political consequences.”
Mondale didn’t mean to shoot down Cable’s idea, though. Bill came from the Speaker’s office, and he’d done a great job in improving the relations with Carter and Congress, which sometimes made the United States and the USSR look like best friends. Cable had his work cut out for him, so Mondale decided to throw a bone.
“I’m happy to go down there, Mr. President, but we’re going to have to compromise. Long doesn’t care as much about taxes as he does about oil. This is all an opening dance. He’s gearing up for a fight on an energy bill, or an environment bill — however we do it in the future. So I think we’ve got to warm him up a bit. Let go of the delay on the tax breaks, and give him that win.”
Carter hated it. Give in? On good policy? He hated this town. Everyone had their own ideas, but nobody actually cared about what they had to do. They had to get the deficit under control, and so they had to delay the tax break. That’s the way it was.
More than anything, Carter wanted to move on from this meeting and get on to the next thing. He had a call with Sadat — nothing serious, just two friends catching up. So he told Mondale to go to the Hill, and to take Anne and Bill and whoever else he needed, and figure out where the deal was.
“Don’t promise anything,” the president explained. “We’ll see where we’re at, and then I’ll make a decision.” And so Mondale went to the Hill.
March 4, 1981
The Capitol Building — Washington, DC
Walter Mondale knew it as he pulled up to the Capitol Building for his meeting with Russell Long. We’re making the same mistakes. Here he was, on his way to meet with Long, who had not been consulted enough in the lead-up to the FY 1982 budget’s introduction. And Long was miffed by the whole thing — probably felt he didn’t owe Carter anything because Carter didn’t act like he owed Long anything. That just wasn’t how Washington worked — not according to Russell Long. Fritz understood, and he had to make amends.
Fritz’s Senate office was mostly ceremonial in nature, but it did have a utilitarian purpose. Like now, when Russell Long was on his way.
The Vice President’s office in the Capitol is ornate by any standard — except when compared to others in the U.S. Capitol Building. Back when artists were painting gorgeous murals on the ceilings of various rooms on the Hill, the Vice President was in his Capitol office working. It was his only office in those days. There was no Old Executive Office Building. No West Wing. So, the artists who might have climbed ladders to paint the kind of intricate artwork that made people enter in awe, never had the chance to do so. The room was being used. [5]
Over time, the room became used less frequently, and Walter Mondale became the first Vice President with an office in the West Wing of the White House. Mondale was a different kind of Vice President — more than an afterthought, more even than Nixon or Johnson. He was Carter’s partner, and sometimes that meant applying his political skills where the president lacked them.
Long entered with a few staffers, and they all took their seats. He and Mondale shook hands, and Fritz sat down and crossed his legs while Long spread his and leaned back. Fritz had some explaining to do, the way Russell Long saw it.
“Senator, thank you for taking the time. As you know, the president cares a great deal about this budget, and we want to work together on this.”
“The chance to make me a partner was before you put your bill up,” he humphed. He wasn’t going to make it easy on Carter’s whipping boy.
“I understand that, Senator, but you know how it is. It’ll all be different in four years, I assure you, but right now — this is what it is. The president would appreciate your deference —”
“Deference!” The word echoed around the room. Deference. Surely, Fritz Mondale wasn’t being serious.
“Where was the deference to the Senate, Mr. Vice President? Where was the consideration of what the Senate Finance Committee might think about taxes? And now, the president goes ahead and announces he’s suspending a tax cut — which he does not have the authority to do without our approval — and makes us look fiscally irresponsible? He’s playing into the Republicans’ hands on this. Now, I thought when y’all got rid of Jordan this issue would be fixed, but nobody’s learned their lesson over there, I can see that.”
Russell Long did not forget slights, and the way he was counting, this was the second time the Carter White House had tried to pass tax legislation by going around him. If they’d come to him, he could’ve given his opinion, and he’d have been fine if they only took an idea or two. But once again, Carter and his motley crew had come along and put forward a bill to box Long and his Senators in. Well, that wasn’t how Russell Long did business. If Carter didn’t want to be on his team at the start, he’d have to face Long at the finish.
“I hear you, Senator, and I also remember how much of a help you were to the White House back when Senator Bentsen was trying to add in a number of things to the energy bill in the first term. The president respects you, and I am sorry if we offended you by not running the budget through your team first.” There it was — Mondale’s strength on the Hill. He could apologize. Jimmy Carter would never have been able to.
“Agh, no harm,” Long said, “but I’m not going to roll over on this, Fritz. Now, back home people are mighty worried about how they’re gonna pay their bills, and I can’t tell ‘em I’m raising their taxes. I can’t do it. And nobody around here wants to be that guy, either.”
So Mondale listened as Long went on about all the ways his ideas made more sense. Mondale saw all along what it was. Russell Long was nearing the end of his time in the Senate, and he’d become the Senate Finance Chairman, and he remembered what that title used to mean — before there was a caucus in Iowa and before the primary in New Hampshire meant anything more than a few factory men expressing an opinion that the Convention could ignore. But times were different, and Jimmy Carter had waltzed right in to the Oval Office, and he hadn’t paid his due. He thought Congress was no different than that part-time sorry-excuse for a legislature they had down there in Georgia. But that wasn’t Russell Long’s Senate, and as long as he was around, the Senate was going to be treated like it was the World’s Greatest Deliberative Body.
Long didn’t spell it out like that. He was talking about the need to support the oil companies and help with energy production — Carter was so worried about energy, he’d reminded Fritz. He talked about Carter’s proposed tax cuts for corporations — he liked those. He could get behind those. He thought most of the budget was sound. The spending, that is. Carter made cuts, but nothing that would really hurt people. Defense was well-funded. That was important. Good for the Pentagon, good for the country — that’s how Russell Long saw it.
But behind Long’s words, Mondale could still hear the edge. He was a Senate Chairman, and he knew that with each new man (Long wasn’t keen on this whole ladies business), that gavel would mean less and less because the Senate was starting to mean less and less. And that’s not how Russell Long wanted it. He was a Man of the Body. And he just wanted to work with a president who respected that.
Mondale was never going to change how Jimmy Carter viewed the Town or the House or the Senate, but he could do what he had to do now to get the president a win.
“Senator, I think all of that makes sense, and we’ll see how it goes in committee. You just keep Stu Eizenstat informed, and the White House will do what it can.”
Russell Long said he would see what he could do.
• • •
Even with Bob Dole’s help, the president was two votes shy of keeping his delay of the ’81 tax cut in the final budget. Long wasn’t going to let that up. But he did decide to give the White House a break on the oil taxes, and when Bentsen tried, he told the Senator to get in line. There would be a fight over energy, Carter had said as much. Couldn’t help himself. He would have an energy bill, and he’d go on about solar and wind and nuclear, but Long knew that he and Bentsen could get the last laugh then. No need to mess up the president’s budget now. This could be a big enough win for all of ‘em. The Democrats had stood up to their president and cut taxes, but they’d held the line on spending and avoided that crazy Republican idea that cutting taxes would somehow engender more revenue.
Tip O’Neill got it through in the House. Of course, there would have to be a conference committee. No one could reasonably expect the House and the Senate to agree on the first try. But O’Neill kept his caucus in line. Some of them wanted to go out there and carry the cross that Kemp had, but O’Neill steered them off it. No need for big cuts. And when Gephardt wouldn’t let it go, kept trying to raise his Fair Tax bill, O’Neill reminded him who had given him such a prominent policy role on the Hill. And Dick Gephardt got back in line.
A sort of detente was forming between Carter and the Congressional Democrats. They were equally tired of fighting. The fun was out of it for Tip O’Neill. Carter was a prick who was never going to give Congress their due, but rather than spend all day being angry about it, O’Neill decided to pass the best bill he could and go home and have a scotch and put his feet up. There would be more bills tomorrow.
The younger members of the House noticed that it was around this time that O’Neill kept calling in his favorites for meeting after meeting. They were getting prominent photo ops. Gerry Ferraro practically lived in the Speaker’s office. O’Neill liked her a lot — thought she was the future of the Party. She won a Republican district in Queens by keeping the ethnic whites pulling the Democratic lever. That was the future for the Party. They couldn’t cede the ethnic whites. And she was smart — a teacher, a prosecutor. She was in O’Neill’s office a lot those days.
So was Dick Gephardt, despite all of his posturing and prodding and insisting that he was The Man, Tip O’Neill liked his drive. He liked that he came from the Midwest. We’ve got to hold the Midwest. That was the future of the Party, the way Tip O’Neill saw it.
The budget got across the finish line, and Carter had much to be pleased about. He’d lost out on the ’81 tax cut freeze, but he’d gotten most everything else. The deficit was the most constrained it’d been in years, and that was all Carter’s doing. The Pentagon was well funded, just like Carter wanted. Ted Kennedy may have lost in ’80, but Jack’s mantra about sufficient arms was still Democratic Gospel — at least for Jimmy Carter.
On nearly all of it, Carter had gotten his way. Not because he changed, but because he’d worn down the other guys. There would be plenty of time for disagreements. They still had nearly a full four years ahead of them.
###
[1] All of these proposals come from Carter’s written 1981 State of the Union report and follow his OTL plans for the 1982 budget.
[2] In Geraldine Ferraro’s memoir, she writes that Mondale’s people told her she’d have to give up her seat in the House to run for Vice President. She wrote that she knew that, so my assumption then is that it was New York law at the time of Kemp’s 1980 campaign, and I doubt Hugh Carey would’ve accommodated legislation to allow Kemp to run in both spots. (Ferraro: My Story, 29)
[3] Rangel’s reaction taken from a Washington Post article about Gephardt’s bill/the defeat of Carter’s bill.
[4] I had to. Only this once. All credit to the wonderful late Richard Ben Cramer and his book What It Takes.
[5] My source is C-SPAN’s tour of the Vice President’s Ceremonial Office.
another great update for a great timeline! excited to see how the rest of carter's second term will turn out.
Congrats on eking out a tiny bit of sympathy for Ronnie from me, not an easy job in the slightest.
Bob Dole-mania is running wild brother!
Man reading the clash between Long and Bradley is terrific, it's something that I feel a lot of alternate timelines don't really go into: the specific beefs between certain senators. There's the North and South blocs of course but on a personal level too.
Man, watching Dole do the rounds is fun
Man, Russell Long feels terrifying in this.
Bob Dole-mania is running wild brother!
Jack Kemp is never going to be someone I take to my heart but honestly it's a lot easier to feel sad for him than Ronald Reagan. This kind of situation sucks, even if there is a big part of me that couldn't help smirking as he mourned the loss of 'trickle-down economics'.
Man reading the clash between Long and Bradley is terrific, it's something that I feel a lot of alternate timelines don't really go into: the specific beefs between certain senators. There's the North and South blocs of course but on a personal level too.
Man, watching Dole do the rounds is fun
Love, love, LOVE this moment, it's a terrific chance to see the (relatively) moderate wing of the Republican movement of the party in action.
Man, Russell Long feels terrifying in this.
These two quotes here really do seem to cut to the truth of how Carter sees the world and how the world in turn sees Carter. O'Neill is far more understandable and reasonable here, obviously, but that sense of entitlement and importance is quite something to behold. And even if it results only in a bill that is 'nearly' perfect, I love that Carter managed to be so stubborn that it took the fight out of the others.
As me and the lads down in the Emirates say:
Who are ya, who are ya, who are ya, who are ya?
Bob Dole doesn’t think his Bob Dole is a Bob Dole. Bob Dole wants a Bob Dole of a Bob Dole. And this Bob Dole has to be a Bob Dole of Bob Dole proportions. Nothing less than a Bob Dole would be good enough for Bob Dole’s Bob Dole.
If you smell what Bob Dole is cookin’.
Even with a sympathetic author and the advantage of hindsight, Carter can't learn every lesson
I'm glad everyone's having as much fun with it as I did
It would be a profoundly boring timeline if he did!Even with a sympathetic author and the advantage of hindsight, Carter can't learn every lesson
Deleted member 145219
Great stuff. Surprised to see that the election was a close as it was, given everything that broke towards Carter.United States Elections, 19801980 UNITED STATES PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
1980 UNITED STATES SENATE ELECTIONS
Alabama: Jim Folson, Jr., D def. Jeremiah Denton, R (D Hold)
Alaska: Frank Murkowski, R def. Clark Gruening, D (R Gain)
Arizona: Bill Schulz, D def. Sen. Barry Goldwater, R (D Gain)
Arkansas: Sen. Dale Bumpers, D def. William Clark, R (D Hold)
California: Sen. Alan Cranston, D def. Paul Gann, R (D Hold)
Colorado: Sen. Gary Hart, D def. Mary Buchanan, R (D Hold)
Connecticut: Chris Dodd, D def. James Buckley, R (D Hold)
Florida: Bill Gunter, D def. Paula Hawkins, R (D Hold)
Georgia: Sen. Herman Talmadge, D def. Mack Mattingly, R (D Hold)
Hawaii: Sen. Daniel Inouye, D def. Cooper Brown, R (D Hold)
Idaho: Sen. Frank Church, D def. Steve Symms R (D Hold)
Illinois: Alan Dixon, D def. Dave O’Neal, R (D Hold)
Indiana: Dan Quayle, R def. Sen. Birch Bayh, D (R Gain)
Iowa: Chuck Grassley, R def. Sen. John Culver, D (R Gain)
Kansas: Sen. Bob Dole, R def. John Simpson, D (R Hold)
Louisiana: Sen. Russell Long, D def. Woody Jenkins, R (D Hold)
Maryland: Sen. Charles Mathias, R def. Edward Conroy, D (R Hold)
Missouri: Sen. Thomas Eagleton, D def. Gene McNary (D Hold)
Nevada: Sen. Paul Laxalt, R def. Mary Gojack, D (R Hold)
New Hampshire: Warren Rudman, R def. Sen. John Durkin, D (R Gain)
New York: Liz Holtzman, D def. Al D’Amato, R and Jacob Javits, L (D Gain)
North Carolina: Sen. Robert Burren Morgan, D def. John Porter East, R (D Hold)
North Dakota: Mark Andrews, R def. Kent Johanneson, D (R Hold)
Ohio: Sen. John Glenn, D def. James Betts, R (D Hold)
Oklahoma: Don Nickles, R def. Andrew Coats, D (R Hold)
Oregon: Sen. Bob Packwood, R def. Ted Kulongoski, D (R Hold)
Pennsylvania: Pete Flaherty, D def. Arlen Specter, R (D Gain)
South Carolina: Fritz Hollings, D def. Marshall Mays, R (D Hold)
South Dakota: James Abdnor, R def. Sen. George McGovern, D (R Gain)
Utah: Sen. Jake Garn, R def. Dan Berman, D (R Hold)
Vermont: Sen. Patrick Leahy, D def. Stewart Ledbetter, R (D Hold)
Washington: Sen. Warren Magnuson, D def. Slade Gorton, R (D Hold)
Wisconsin: Sen. Gaylord Nelson, D def. Bob Kasten, R (D Hold)
Senate composition before the election: 58 Democrats, 41 Republicans, 1 Independent
Senate composition after the election: 56 Democrats, 43 Republicans, 1 Independent (R+2)
1980 UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ELECTIONS
House composition before the election: 277 D, 157 R, 1 C
House composition after the election: 266 D, 168 R, 1 C (R+11)
1980 UNITED STATES GUBERNATORIAL ELECTIONS
Arkansas: Frank D. White, R def. Gov. Bill Clinton, D (R Gain)
Delaware: Gov. Pete du Pont, R def. William Gordy, D (R Hold)
Indiana: Robert D. Orr, R def. John Hillenbrand II, D (R Hold)
Missouri: Kit Bond, R def. Gov. Joseph P. Teasdale, D (R Gain)
Montana: Ted Schwinden, D def. Jack Ramirez, R (D Hold)
New Hampshire: Gov. Hugh Gallen, D def. Meldrim Thomson, Jr, R (D Hold)
North Carolina: Gov. Jim Hunt, D def. I. Beverly Lake, Jr, R (D Hold)
North Dakota: Gov. Arthur Link, D def. Allen Olson, R (D Hold)
Rhode Island: Gov. J. Joseph Garrahy, D def. Buddy Cianci, R (D Hold)
Utah: Gov. Scott Matheson, D def. Bob Wright, R (D Hold)
Vermont: Gov. Richard Snelling, R def. M. Jerome Diamond, D (R Hold)
Washington: John Spellman, R def. Jim McDermott, D (R Gain)
West Virginia: Gov. Jay Rockefeller, D def. Arch A. Moore, Jr, R (D Hold)