Juanista victory in the Second Castillian Civil War?

[Lleibi]

As this board is seeing Spain-related threads left and right, i'm going to add mine

I've been thinking for a while to make a TL where Juana (Isabella's niece, not her daughter) actually manages to obtain the throne in the Second Castillian Civil War. Granada, whose support had been sought by Joao II IOTL, joins the war on the juanista side, and that, plus the butterflies flapping from the PoD inverts the tide of the war, that had been almost lost after the battle of Toro.
I envision Spain staying stably divided between Portugal-Castille, Granada and Aragon-Navarre.

My (naive) views is:
Castille-Portugal (specially after the eventual dinastic union) would be allied to England and dominating the oceans.
Aragon (with the IOTL-catholic kings reigning) would obtain the support of the Hapsburgs (i'd like to picture that they still manage to marry their heir to the HRE heir) and extend their reach in the Mediterranean (Ferdinand had crusading dreams of taking Alexandria to beach-head into holy land).
France would be in a very tight spot.
Not sure how to handle Granada, to be honest. It's supposed to start alligned with Castille at first, but that might change over time. It would have territorial problems with Aragon in the picture i had made, so allying with them would be unlikely... Their economy was decaying badly IOTL but if they can become again a trade hub, things might look up for them.

Am i too far off?

 

[Emperor Constantine]

As this board is seeing Spain-related threads left and right, i'm going to add mine

I've been thinking for a while to make a TL where Juana (Isabella's niece, not her daughter) actually manages to obtain the throne in the Second Castillian Civil War. Granada, whose support had been sought by Joao II IOTL, joins the war on the juanista side, and that, plus the butterflies flapping from the PoD inverts the tide of the war, that had been almost lost after the battle of Toro.
I envision Spain staying stably divided between Portugal-Castille, Granada and Aragon-Navarre.

My (naive) views is:
Castille-Portugal (specially after the eventual dinastic union) would be allied to England and dominating the oceans.
Aragon (with the IOTL-catholic kings reigning) would obtain the support of the Hapsburgs (i'd like to picture that they still manage to marry their heir to the HRE heir) and extend their reach in the Mediterranean (Ferdinand had crusading dreams of taking Alexandria to beach-head into holy land).
France would be in a very tight spot.
Not sure how to handle Granada, to be honest. It's supposed to start alligned with Castille at first, but that might change over time. It would have territorial problems with Aragon in the picture i had made, so allying with them would be unlikely... Their economy was decaying badly IOTL but if they can become again a trade hub, things might look up for them.

Am i too far off?

Parts of that sound legit. Both Portugal and Castile were allied to England at one point. But with Aragon, I doubt there would be a marriage with the Habsburgs. First of all there was never a marriage between a Habsburg and an Argonese Princess before Spanish Unification. Second of all, why would the Habsburgs marry into Aragon? With Spain there was a reason: Newly unified Catholic country that was expanding into the new world and North Africa. With Aragon, I can't see a reason. With the location of the Habsburg Dominion, a match with an Italian, French or Hungarian Princess would be best. Also, Crusades were done with by the point of the POD. Even if Ferdinand wanted to expand that far, what reason would Austria have to involve itself in such an expensive and potentially weakening war? I can't see a reason here. Finally, if Aragon was rivaled to Castile (and it would be with Isabella as Queen consort of Aragon) then Aragon would look to France for an Alliance to counter Castile-Portugal. It makes the most strategic sense.

As for Granada, well why wouldn't Castile conquer it eventually? Even without unification, Castile was still a Catholic country bordered by a Muslim one. And a fairly easy war with Granada would be a great popularity boost in Castile and a propaganda coup in Europe.

 

[MNP]

Niece? La Beltraneja? I agree about Aragon/France, though there was that border dispute. I think it flared up a little at some point after Isbaella and Ferdinand got married so there are some stumbling blocks. Wasn't Aragon's Mediterranean empire declining some as well? That makes it less attractive to the Hapsburgs and more like an obstacle that can be over come with the right connection to Italy. ED: Ferdinand did have some sort of crusading dream. I believe Ferdinand did personally lead troops to Otranto at some point but they arrived after the Turks had departed. That's as far as he got.

Finally because of its mountainous terrain, Granada required a long series of siege battles and attrition warfare. Part of that IIRC was a blockade. Would Portugal be willing to provide the ships for that considering its own existing overseas ventures? There was some tension between Aragon and Castille over the expenses or something for that. Maybe they would carve out some chunks in the west (Spain went west first IOTL I believe) but it might survive long term enough to become an Ottoman client like the Barbary states. That's always an interesting turn of events.

 

[Lleibi]

Parts of that sound legit. Both Portugal and Castile were allied to England at one point. But with Aragon, I doubt there would be a marriage with the Habsburgs. First of all there was never a marriage between a Habsburg and an Argonese Princess before Spanish Unification. Second of all, why would the Habsburgs marry into Aragon? With Spain there was a reason: Newly unified Catholic country that was expanding into the new world and North Africa. With Aragon, I can't see a reason. With the location of the Habsburg Dominion, a match with an Italian, French or Hungarian Princess would be best. Also, Crusades were done with by the point of the POD. Even if Ferdinand wanted to expand that far, what reason would Austria have to involve itself in such an expensive and potentially weakening war? I can't see a reason here. Finally, if Aragon was rivaled to Castile (and it would be with Isabella as Queen consort of Aragon) then Aragon would look to France for an Alliance to counter Castile-Portugal. It makes the most strategic sense.

As for Granada, well why wouldn't Castile conquer it eventually? Even without unification, Castile was still a Catholic country bordered by a Muslim one. And a fairly easy war with Granada would be a great popularity boost in Castile and a propaganda coup in Europe.

Let's see.
-Hapsburg marriage into Aragon: ITTL i was picturing a stronger intervention of Aragon on NE Africa (Ferdinand indeed had plans to capture both Alexandria and Cyprus before defats in Tunisia and the second regency got in his way). But it would enter in conflict with Venice, that held the trade routes in that area. The Hapbsburgs had some history with Venice, specially through Hungary. With Aragon on the opposite side of the Tirrene sea, and important italian ambitions, they would be a natural ally. I think.

-Aragon and France: With Aragon on the losing side of the civil war (France being in the winning side), i foresee relationships being rocky for a while. Said relationship wouldn't heal till the Rosellon&Cerdaña situation would get solved. Beside that yes, Aragon and France should be allies out of necessity, specially if the Hapsburg card fails.

-Granada: This is one of my personal goals in this TL, managing an independent and stable Granada. At first, it would be a matter of being true to the alliance conditions, that would ensure its independence. Later on, though... nothing really could stop Castille from just taking it, unless it keeps being a useful ally. I would like to find a way for the Granadine king to obtain a consideration similar to "christian prince", which is sure to strain disbelief a bit, and i dunno if it's worth it just to keep my pet intention. Maybe forcing Granada to reduce the dhimi and support Catholic priesthood to operate in exchange for political independence?

 

[Lleibi]

Niece? La Beltraneja?

Yes, la Beltraneja, although i dislike the ephithet .

Wasn't Aragon's Mediterranean empire declining some as well? That makes it less attractive to the Hapsburgs and more like an obstacle that can be over come with the right connection to Italy.

If i understand the situation correctly, the decline was in part owed to the greater attention Castillian matters required. Ferdinand's father had suffered due to internal revolts, but both him and his son were able to keep the situation under control again.

ED: Ferdinand did have some sort of crusading dream. I believe Ferdinand did personally lead troops to Otranto at some point but they arrived after the Turks had departed. That's as far as he got.

Yes, i wonder how it would have happened if Ferdinand could devote his atention solely to that.

Finally because of its mountainous terrain, Granada required a long series of siege battles and attrition warfare. Part of that IIRC was a blockade. Would Portugal be willing to provide the ships for that considering its own existing overseas ventures? There was some tension between Aragon and Castille over the expenses or something for that. Maybe they would carve out some chunks in the west (Spain went west first IOTL I believe) but it might survive long term enough to become an Ottoman client like the Barbary states. That's always an interesting turn of events.

Nice, i'll keep that idea in mind.

 

[kasumigenx]

Yes, la Beltraneja, although i dislike the ephithet .


If i understand the situation correctly, the decline was in part owed to the greater attention Castillian matters required. Ferdinand's father had suffered due to internal revolts, but both him and his son were able to keep the situation under control again.


Yes, i wonder how it would have happened if Ferdinand could devote his atention solely to that.


Nice, i'll keep that idea in mind.

Actually, the French have claims to the throne of Aragon...remember the French King is the descendant of Yolande of Aragon.

 

[Lleibi]

Actually, the French have claims to the throne of Aragon...remember the French King is the descendant of Yolande of Aragon.

I better examine that, though after Aragon having worked out their internal strife, it's unlikely they would press it. Still enough to make them uneasy around each other.
But Ferdinand II was great with uneasy circumstances.

 

[MNP]

Yes, la Beltraneja, although i dislike the ephithet .

BTW, why end it with "-neja" what does that signify in the language? I think it's pointing out that she's of Beltran's get, but why not something like "Beltrana?" I've never been sure.

If i understand the situation correctly, the decline was in part owed to the greater attention Castillian matters required. Ferdinand's father had suffered due to internal revolts, but both him and his son were able to keep the situation under control again.

Good point. But population is part of it, and Aragon took a very very long time to recover the population lost in the Plague according to Teofilo Ruiz.

 

[Lleibi]

BTW, why end it with "-neja" what does that signify in the language? I think it's pointing out that she's of Beltran's get, but why not something like "Beltrana?" I've never been sure.

-ejo/eja is a despective-diminutive suffix. It's not very common, because the despective suffixes in Spanish don't follow a general rule, like normal diminutives and aumentatives.

Good point. But population is part of it, and Aragon took a very very long time to recover the population lost in the Plague according to Teofilo Ruiz.

That's true, Castille supplied a lot of manpower in Aragon's Mediterranean strategy IOTL. They will need desperately an alliance with a populous nation. I still like the idea of Austria, but i will have to research that a bit more carefully.