Keynes' Cruisers

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The President and the Philippines.


FDR, has a problem, one that is exasperated by the better performance of American arms ITTL, made worse by the British. IOTL, it was obvious that nothing could be done for the men in the Philippines, the British loss of Singapore, the DEI, and the threat to Australia, meant that all recognised that the Philippines was a lost cause. ITTL, things are not so clear cut, and there are going to be increasing voices calling for ‘ something to be done.’ The fact that there is very little that can be done at this time, will not be as obvious to the American people, is one of the problems he faces..

<snip>

Right now the Americans are between a rock and a hard place, and there are no good options. They do not have the shipping to support a major relief of the Philippines, or the troops and supplies needed. They have a number of other areas that they have to support, and can not afford to take away units, and redeploy them to the Philippines. They would need major cooperation from the British, who would have to put a number of their own plans on hold. Sadly the best option right now is to continue the resupply by submarines, and maybe one small high speed convoy. Though don’t expect to get any of the ships back, they are ether going to get sunk or be disabled.


The best hope that the Americans have at the moment, is that their and the British better performance in other areas. Makes it impossible for the Japanese to collect sufficient resources to capture the Americans beleaguered garrison. While they can continue to provide sufficient supplies to enable the garrison to hold out. Six months, and there could be a very different outlook, and then something might be done to provide a relief.


RR..

The Surcouf isn't the only boat available.

Like everyone else, after the War, the United States had built oversized submarines, along with the fleet boats. Like Surcouf, and the scrapped British M boats and the X-1.

Too unhandy to really operate in the combatant environment, they were converted to cargo and transport boats. There were Barracuda (SS-163; formerly V-1 (SF-4)), Bass (SS+164; formerly V-2 (SF-5)), Bonita (SS-165; formerly V-3 (SF-6)), Narwhal (SS-167; formerly V-5 (SC-1)), and Nautilus (SS-168; formerly V-6 (SC-2, SF-9).

Bass had a fire in August of 1942 and probably wouldn't be available, but I suspect the Navy would prefer using American submarines to French ones.

There is a reference to the Nautilus making a supply run (Message #7513) and the Narwhal is in the Atlantic (Message #451).

(In OTL, the Nautilus had been a transport sub for the Makin Raid. In Hector Bywater's The Great Pacific War, the V 1 [Barracuda] and V 3 [Bonita] perform watch off Peel Island (Chichi Jima) before the unsuccessful invasion attempt, while the V 6 [Nautilus] is sunk by mistake in a blue-on-blue incident.)
 
The Surcouf isn't the only boat available.

Like everyone else, after the War, the United States had built oversized submarines, along with the fleet boats. Like Surcouf, and the scrapped British M boats and the X-1.

Too unhandy to really operate in the combatant environment, they were converted to cargo and transport boats. There were Barracuda (SS-163; formerly V-1 (SF-4)), Bass (SS+164; formerly V-2 (SF-5)), Bonita (SS-165; formerly V-3 (SF-6)), Narwhal (SS-167; formerly V-5 (SC-1)), and Nautilus (SS-168; formerly V-6 (SC-2, SF-9).

Assume all of the working V-boats are on a regular Singapore-Manilla run.
 
Even assuming you could get a surface convoy in to Bataan, the problem is how do you unload the thousands of tons of supplies from the ships to shore, and how long will it take. The ships can't run away until they are unloaded, and once daylight hits they are sitting ducks for whatever Japanese aviation is active in the area, and there are no American planes to protect them. The issue with the ships and crews, and you will have to assume they are expected to ALL be lost is that the only ships that have a shot at making it various converted high speed vessels (like the destroyer transports) that are in limited supply and valuable, and even with minimal volunteer crews these are highly trained personnel you don;t want to throw away. Even if every naval crew member makes it onshore alive, they are pretty useless and more mouths to feed and bodies to try and evacuate.

There are no port facilities within US lines on Bataan, and the docks on Corregidor were pretty minimal and have been damaged during the fighting. You need to use cranes aboard the ships to lower the loads to lighters, which then need to get ashore, and now be unloaded by hand just to get the stuff onshore. You need a lot of men, and a lot of time to do this, and BTW are there any suitable lighters available to do this unloading and how many are there. Another question is what is the water depth off Southern Bataan? This will tell you how far offshore ships need to anchor, the further offshore the longer the transfer time.

OTL systems were developed to deal with issues during the war, they are not available at this time

I realize none of this will either be understood or cared about by politicians looking to make hay with the situation.
 
Montgomery's upcoming offensive in Northern Malaya into Thailand. I would expect a large attrition of the Japanese air units based in Thailand, Indochina and Formosa. As well as whatever ground forces that can be spared from China to be rushed to the Malay front. Few or none reinforcements then for the Japanese army in Luzon.
Is there any chance of getting Thailand to switch sides? Just a thought.
 
Not to sound flippant, but one sub being sunk by one mine does not isolate the PI. (Even if the sub in question, Surcouf, is one of my favorites) The USN does not know how many mines were laid, how thick or thin the mine field(s) are, who’s mine it was (it could have broken free if it’s mooring), or even if it was a mine (it’s a very good guess, but if the lone survivor can’t really confirm it was a mine then it’s still a guess).
Point is I don’t see this as enough to stop the Allies from trying to supply the PI by sub. It will make them more cautious and they may think of some alternate way of supplying the PI, but one sub being sunk won’t stop it.
 

Ryan

Donor
Is there any chance of getting Thailand to switch sides? Just a thought.

Iirc they weren't exactly fanatic Japanese allies.

Best case scenario for the commonwealth I can see is this:
Montgomery launches his offensive which cripples if not destroys most Japanese forces facing him and puts the front line solidly in Thailand (maybe even linking up with Burma).
Seeing how the war is going and realising that Japanese forces in their country are wrecked, the thais turn on their illustrious allies, resulting in the local Japanese forces being wiped out.
With no more enemy forces facing them and a new ally, Montgomery is able to move his forces across Thailand asap, and together with Thai forces are able to make a significant push into indochina.
by the time the offensive season is over, almost the entirety of mainland se Asia is under allied control, with only northern indochina still held by the Japanese.
 
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Even assuming you could get a surface convoy in to Bataan, the problem is how do you unload the thousands of tons of supplies from the ships to shore, and how long will it take.

The only way to unload ships quickly is to use LST (landing ship tank) and there is the problem of their avaibility even in 1943.
 
It's not only getting it off the ships. You need the right infrastructure on the docks and beyond to move the cargo to where it needs to go. And without cranes to lift the cargo and trucks to get it off the wharves or whatever, all you get is cargo piling up on the waterfront and being extremely vulnerable to air attack. You can land cargo across the beaches with LSTs but unless you have a viable road network right behind those beaches, all you are doing is building up a very vulnerable target for Japanese planes.
 
Story 1608
Hiroshima, October 23, 1942


Sea birds dove into the wakes. Fish either evaded or were speared and consumed. Sampans stayed in the harbor as seven battleships and their escorting cruisers and destroyers left the harbor. The mighty castles of steel were making an extremely efficient sixteen knots. They would train for a day at the gunnery ranges before they turned south for a temporary anchorage at Palau. Some of their support ships had already left the Inland Sea to prepare the facilities needed for the behemoths.
 
Story 1609
Kuantan October 23, 1942

Three ships entered the harbor.

30 Squadron RAF circled overhead. Their squadron commander was in the lead in his new mount, a factory fresh Mustang replacing his favored Hurricane. He could not complain about the new fighter; it was faster, more nimble, longer ranged and just as heavily armed as his Hurricane but it was different. He loved the Hawker product and this was different. It would not matter as he had received his orders that morning. He was to be on the next set of liners out of Singers and off to a training command for at least the next year. The brilliant boffins decided that the skills that produced one hundred and eleven kills were better spent getting adequate pilots up to good instead of leading a squadron and risking luck. This was his last flight.

Below him, the empty rails of Manxman and Abdiel were silent. The two fast cruiser mine layers had deposited several hundred mines in a channel that the Japanese routinely used to supply the six understrength divisions they had south and west of Bangkok. It was a typical mission, a departure during daylight with heavy fighter cover. Once they got within 150 miles of the airfields in southern French Indochina, the cruisers went to thirty knots until they could lay a string of pearls along the seabed. Once the minefields were seeded, the cruisers ran at full power back to friendly air cover that had, as expected and planned, arrived overhead a few minutes after dawn.


The third ship was the harbor minesweeper bringing the two steel hulled thieves through the boom defenses along the cleared channel.
 
Story 1610
Java October 24, 1942


The port on the southside of the crown jewel of the Dutch Empire was crowded. Half a dozen American warships were anchored a mile offshore. A dozen merchant ships and liners were jockeying for space along the limited docks. Marines were alongside the rails looking at land for the first time in almost a month.

By mid-afternoon, order had been re-established. The troopers would be unloaded first. By nightfall, a regiment of Marines and the headquarters of the 2nd Marine Division had been unloaded. Most of the men had been directed to a set of camps that were set up outside of the city. The more energetic company commanders had their men do an easy eight mile run with full packs to their mosquito netted tents. Legs were wobbly even after all the conditioning that the most sadistic sergeants could find aboard ships.

As the liners pulled away from the docks, the bulk carriers began the process of emptying their holds with the supplies that the entire division would need once the other two regiments and the supporting arms had arrived. There were plans for the division, but right now, those plans were mainly training as the Marines were well armed and well led, but they were raw. Veterans of the fighting near Surabaya and eastwards would soon be circulating through the green troops to impart some wisdom and tricks of the trade that had allowed them to both stay alive and win. The 5th Indian Division was soon heading back to India to serve as cadre for two new divisions as the last brigade would be the cornerstone of the reconstruction of the 5th, but before they left, they would impress the Marines with their visions of the elephant.
 
A request to the British that since thy are no longer needed in the Mediterranean could they please send Manxman and her surviving sisters ITTL. A few ship loads of US war materials will then make the long voyage via the west coast of Australia to Singapore. These supplies will then be run down to Bataan by the fast minelayers. This is a sustaining supply operation. One major problem is clearing the mine at the intended off loading site on Bataan. Manxman and her sisters of the Abdiel-class built as very fast minelayers could make 38 knots deep load. They had clear mine decks and cranes for quick loading of same. At a cruising sped of 36knots they can do Singapore to Bataan in under 48 hours. Practically speaking with the five available ships (as OTL) a run by two ships a week is more than plausible. That works out at two ships on a run, two ships in Singapore reloading and doing maintenance/ crew resting and the fifth ship having a refit on standby.
Question answered.
Below him, the empty rails of Manxman and Abdiel were silent. The two fast cruiser mine layers had deposited several hundred mines in a channel that the Japanese routinely used to supply the six understrength divisions they had south and west of Bangkok.
 

CalBear

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How long will it take to build up this logistics base from scratch. You will tell me a time

How many ships will this relief force need? You will answer this question.

You will also give us an ORBAT as to what US Army, US Marine, and USAAF units will be sent, including the personnel numbers, the tonnage of supplies, and the number and type of ships needed.
Don't give orders.

Requests? Sure.

Orders? Not so much.
 
Story 1611 Roundtop and Chevelier
Penang, Malaya October 25, 1942

A well placed bomb would have destroyed the Commonwealth’s leadership in the Far East. A fighter squadron was circling overhead while at least three more squadrons were on strip alerts. An additional regiment of light anti-aircraft guns had been brought into the city. The Royal Navy had stationed a trio of anti-aircraft cruisers in the harbor protecting both the hotel and the dozen merchant ships unloading the supplies needed for the next three months.

General Percival had called together almost his entire senior leadership team for a conference before the ground had fully dried up. Malayan forces could have started an advance this week but the divisions in Burma and Siam may have been caught in the last few weeks of standing water and muddy roads.

His command responsibilities had been clarified. His domain was all of southeast Asia from the east bank of the Ganges River at Dhaka to a line starting on the northern tip of Borneo going through the southern port town of Banjamasin before jagging back to the east to include all of Java and Bali. South of the Malay Barrier, he only had coastal responsibilities as the Northern Australian command and the Royal Navy’s Far East Fleet were responsibility for the great waters of the Indian Ocean. The Dutch were in operational control of reconstruction and reconstitution operations on Java. Most of a corps of now battle hardened men defended that island as they rebuilt.

A division would soon be needed to clear Bali of the Japanese regiment and the handful of squadrons that were still holding out on the last southern gasp of their initial advance. He, and his staff, had debated as to the value of clearing Bali versus leaving the Japanese garrison to wither away. If the reports of the treatment of civilians were better, that would have been an easy choice, but clearing the spotters and denying the Japanese the intelligence data that they gained from just being able to watch the skies and the seas had value in and of itself.

More importantly than the mopping up operations scheduled along the southern Malay Barrier was the series of mutually supportive offensives planned along the western rim of his command area. 14th Army, which really was a reinforced corps, consisted of two Indian infantry divisions, a East African division, a Burmese Division, a single British infantry division as well as a reconstituted brigade of the 7th Armoured Division that had been chopped from divisional control and relabeled as an independent armoured brigade. The RAF could, on good days put up 150 somewhat modern machines and another 100 machines that were death traps against Germans but adequate on a tertiary front. The Chinese army guarding the Burma Road was also available as its divisions now had the firepower of commonwealth brigades instead of merely being equal to large regiments when they first entered Burma last January. These forces would attack west over the Sittang River until they secured crossings over the Thanlyin River. If the forces were still in coherent shape to attack, the next objective would be to drive south along the coastal road for as long as possible. A secondary attack with the objective of Tak, Siam was also contemplated. A brigade sized amphibious assault along the southeastern Burma coast was resourced for the follow-on phase.

The Burma offensive OPERATION ROUNDTOP, was scheduled to go off first. The main event would be the 11th Army’s OPERATION CHEVALIER was the main event. CHEVALIER would commence five days after ROUNDTOP.

General Montgomery had been planning this offensive for months as his men trained in the rain and the mud of the monsoon season. Three infantry heavy corps were the main force. Three Australian divisions were on the army’s right. Four Indian infantry divisions, two of them blooded during the spring time fighting and another that had fought in the Mediterranean were the center. The west coast corp was almost entirely from the British Isles with odds and sods of Indian and Colonial detachments and specialists. The 18th Division was the only combat hardened division. The 2nd and 5th Divisions were well trained with more than a few veterans of fighting in Northern France. Finally, the motorized corps consisting of a reconstituted 7th Armoured Division and a reinforced 1st Australian Armoured Division were the exploitation force.

The Australian Corps would initially screen the two Japanese divisions holding the east coast ports while the III Indian Corps and the XXVII Corps would break the line held across the isthmus. Two Japanese divisions were holding the jungle line from coast to coast in good field fortifications. Each of the assault divisions would be focusing all of their effort on a narrow front, no more than two miles wide to bring overwhelming power to bear. Once the Japanese front had been broken into, the assault divisions would shoulder the breakthrough while the corps reserves would pour through the gaps to demolish the near rear of the Japanese even as the heavy armored divisions would seek deep penetration battles to destroy whatever theatre reserves the Japanese could commit. The most recent intercepts had shown that there were less than 200 tanks south of Bangkok. A few dozen were remotely competitive with the Valentines and Grants that made up the armored fist. Most were tankettes and obsolete by continental standards even in 1940.

The RAF promised 750 aircraft over the 11th Army on the first day. Another hundred and fifty were devoted to long range bomber raids against Japanese and Thai strategic targets around Bangkok or Saigon.

The Navy had promised to close the Gulf of Thailand to anything bigger than a fishing boat while also guaranteeing a steady flow of supplies to Penang and Kota Bharu.

Follow-on attacks were also being planned. Tentatively, an amphibious assault on southern French Indochina under the planning name of MERMAID was being penciled in for Spring 1943. That would isolate Bangkok which the Foreign Office could then take with pointed words and lukewarm tea.

Over the next eight hours, the entire plan of the offensives was reviewed. Sharped eye soldiers and logisticians pointed out rough points. Solutions were proposed; one quartermaster was taken to the medical wing after losing an argument and gaining a black eye. By nightfall, the high command of the Far East Armies was safely dispersed as they sought out final planning sessions around a multitude of restaurants and bars in the old port city.
 
The Lion roared in the Deserts of Africa and his foes were found wanting, now he roars in the East and the land of the Orient will be hard pressed to stand against it.
 
Story 1612
Tunisia, October 26, 1942


The sky was dark. The regiment would fight in shadows.


Colonel Williamson tilted his head down. He had stopped counting after the 250th aircraft. The division was being allocated 800 sorties just for the day, and the rest of the Corps was getting at least that many as well. Rumors had it that the British divisions were being just as lavishly supplied with air support as his men were.


Eight miles away, the ground started to rumble as American B-25s and British Wellingtons dropped bombs on crossroads and artillery positions. The fighter bombers and dive bombers that could accurately operate near the front began their attack runs. Their targets were not the forward most positions, that was still too close for the comfort, but the battalion and regimental reserve positions that intelligence and patrols had identified over the past week.


The Luftwaffe was trying to contest the air and over the course of the day, several Germans would become Ace in a Day heros. Few of those men would survive the week as their airfields were being hit by B-17s and B-24s at least once a day and they had to run for slit trenches as American and Commonwealth fighters and light bombers routinely hit the runways at any point during the daylight.


There was a pause in the air raid and soon five hundred guns began a barrage. His battalions were ready to advance into the maelstrom of steel and smoke.
 
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