Of course that would require major persuasion to get them there. Like high pay and free land and immunization and what not. They’d still be a minority no matter what.
Of course that would require major persuasion to get them there. Like high pay and free land and immunization and what not. They’d still be a minority no matter what.
I’m not sure about ‘major persuasion.’ IOTL millions were happy to move to the US even after free land had dried up. I’d imagine ITTL free land and a vaccine shot would be enough to get hundreds of thousands of people to migrate there.
I wouldn’t be so sre about the minority part either. To expand on the scenario, let’s also say that the world wars are avoided, so the US passes an immigration bill in 1918 rather than 1924, so that by 1920 the largest destination for Italian and other Europeans is removed.
As for French Africa, after this I would expect around 75% of all French emigration after this to French Africa, which is truly insane numbers. For example if in 1920 1,000,000 French emigrate, we’re looking at 750,000 French folks arriving in Africa. Assuming modest growth rates of 1% per year, by 2020 their descendants will number 2,000,000, half of the total Afrikaner population from one year of emigration.
In plantation colonies, I’d expect the colonists to become between 10%-20% of the population by around 1930, with small urban communities. However around 1930 immigration would increase as air conditioning would become commonplace, and since technology in some areas is ahead of OTL, let’s say that oil technology by 1930 is around the levels of OTL 1950s.
This would lead to an enormous boom in immigration in several areas. Take Gabon for example. IOTL 1960, the population was around 500,000. So let’s say that by 1930 when natural gas reserves are discovered, Europeans are 50,000 people, of whom around 40,000 are French (low estimates) and their economy is based around exporting crops to France, in everything from rubber to bananas.
And so when natural gas, diamonds and gold are discovered in 1930, alongside air conditioning being inexpensive, we’d expect to see hundreds of thousands of people arrive there. Of course many will be French people, but there will also be many Italians, Poles and Ukrainians arriving too. Without Israel and with the US closed, we’d also likely see tens of thousands of Russian Jews arrive, establishing themselves as middlemen traders in the capital of Libreville. Could they number 500,000 by 1960 and be 51% of the population? IMO yes they could.
As in the 1930s role around French Africa will undergo the process the southern US went in 1960: with air conditioning they will shift from an export poor economy to an industrial economy. Helped by relatively low populations and being in a customs union with France, French Africa will develop industry and tourism, which will prevent the insane population growths of OTL.
By those standards, I would expect the Europeans to form pluralities in most states, and outright majorities in places such as Gabon, the Congo and the Central African Republic.