No Asunción = Portuguese Argentina?

[Taunay]

The foundation of Asunción in 1537 was essential to safeguarding Spanish hegemony in the Rio de la Plata, as Asunción was the base from which the cities of Santa Cruz (Bolivia), Santa Fé, Corrientes and most importantly Buenos Aires were founded.
If the expedition that led to the foundation of the Paraguayan capital failed, what would be the consequences? Would there be a Portuguese expansion into the Rio de La Plata and the Southern Cone in general? Would Portugal annex more of Bolivia?

 

[raharris1973]

So what does everybody think?

 

[holycookie]

as Asunción was the

Well without asuncion, which was an important rest and resupply center for those who arrived at the Rio de la Plata from Europe, attracted by the gold and silver of Upper Peru. Using the Plata Basin to reach Bolivia is not viable. The interior is very wild and has many aggressive and numerous tribes.

base from which the cities of Santa Cruz (Bolivia), Santa Fé, Corrientes and most importantly Buenos Aires were founded.

Not only these cities but including Buenos Aires (the second time, after the failed attempt in 1536) , Concepción del Bermejo,Santiago de Jerez and Ciudad Real.(and of course Corrientes, Santa Fe ans Santa Cruz). So the name "Mother of Cities" was the name was deserved. So either the Spain really goes in force, bringing an army to pacify the region, which is very costly. Or simply give up and consider the region too wild/costly to be tamed.
La Plata 1783 (So I would say that the blue part of the map will not exist. What would happen is probably the Portuguese controlling some coastal cities. TTL Buenos Aires, Colonia, Montevideo and Santa Teresinha Only Portuguese version.)

If the expedition that led to the foundation of the Paraguayan capital failed, what would be the consequences? Would there be a Portuguese expansion into the Rio de La Plata and the Southern Cone in general? Would Portugal annex more of Bolivia?

Buenos Aires was founded in 1536 to prevent the Portuguese from extending beyond the Río de la Plata. During the period between 1560 and 1640, the portuguese versions of Buenos Aires, Colonia, Montevideo and Santa Teresinha would been made. They will be nothing more than fortress cities. If Portugal enters into a union with Spain, Spain will try to wrest these cities from Portugal (I don't know if the kingdom will accept it). If they can't wrest these cities from the Portuguese. They will encourage the Portuguese to start invading towards Potosi. But I don't think they will succeed.
Success will only occur with the expansion of the bandeirantes.They probably arrived at the same time as OTL, so around 1640 they will be in Rio Grande do Sul. But without the Jesuits, military instructors and Spanish weapons to help the defense of the Guaranis TTL battle of M'Bororé will be a victory for the bandeirantes. They probably arrived in Colonia around 1680. From there, they will begin to expand throughout the Plata basin. They will probably spend the entire 18th century fighting, carrying out raids, building forts to control the region. In addition to making trade agreements with Potosí to have access to silver (if there are no trade agreements they will carry out raids looking for silver). Increasing Sao Paulo's strength well before OTL. With slaves and silver being sent directly to São Paulo. The city will explode in wealth . At the same time, you will distance São Paulo from the rest of Brazil. With the loss of Minas Gerais to the Portuguese crown, I don't see the bandeirantes being confident of the crown. A good part of the money they will earn will be in weapons to secure their cash cow, the Plata basin. You could even have a large migration of São Paulo people after the Emboabas war looking to found a key city(or a few) that would give control of the Plata basin to the bandeirantes. TTL Gauchos and Bandeirantes could very well be the same groups (or see themselves as the same group). Only with different professions (one produces cattle, another hunts slaves, another sells weapons, another smuggles silver, etc.). With the Plata basin being opened to navigation, a common identity is likely. From then on, it is difficult to say anything.

 

[Taunay]

Well without asuncion, which was an important rest and resupply center for those who arrived at the Rio de la Plata from Europe, attracted by the gold and silver of Upper Peru. Using the Plata Basin to reach Bolivia is not viable. The interior is very wild and has many aggressive and numerous tribes.

Not only these cities but including Buenos Aires (the second time, after the failed attempt in 1536) , Concepción del Bermejo,Santiago de Jerez and Ciudad Real.(and of course Corrientes, Santa Fe ans Santa Cruz). So the name "Mother of Cities" was the name was deserved. So either the Spain really goes in force, bringing an army to pacify the region, which is very costly. Or simply give up and consider the region too wild/costly to be tamed.
La Plata 1783 (So I would say that the blue part of the map will not exist. What would happen is probably the Portuguese controlling some coastal cities. TTL Buenos Aires, Colonia, Montevideo and Santa Teresinha Only Portuguese version.)
View attachment 871839

Buenos Aires was founded in 1536 to prevent the Portuguese from extending beyond the Río de la Plata. During the period between 1560 and 1640, the portuguese versions of Buenos Aires, Colonia, Montevideo and Santa Teresinha would been made. They will be nothing more than fortress cities. If Portugal enters into a union with Spain, Spain will try to wrest these cities from Portugal (I don't know if the kingdom will accept it). If they can't wrest these cities from the Portuguese. They will encourage the Portuguese to start invading towards Potosi. But I don't think they will succeed.
Success will only occur with the expansion of the bandeirantes.They probably arrived at the same time as OTL, so around 1640 they will be in Rio Grande do Sul. But without the Jesuits, military instructors and Spanish weapons to help the defense of the Guaranis TTL battle of Batalha de M'Bororé will be a victory for the bandeirantes. They probably arrived in Colonia around 1680. From there, they will begin to expand throughout the Plata basin. They will probably spend the entire 18th century fighting, carrying out raids, building forts to control the region. In addition to making trade agreements with Potosí to have access to silver (if there are no trade agreements they will carry out raids looking for silver). Increasing Sao Paulo's strength well before OTL. With slaves and silver being sent directly to São Paulo. The city will explode in wealth . At the same time, you will distance São Paulo from the rest of Brazil. With the loss of Minas Gerais to the Portuguese crown, I don't see the bandeirantes being confident of the crown. A good part of the money they will earn will be in weapons to secure their cash cow, the Plata basin. You could even have a large migration of São Paulo people after the Emboabas war looking to found a key city(or a few) that would give control of the Plata basin to the bandeirantes. TTL Gauchos and Bandeirantes could very well be the same groups (or see themselves as the same group). Only with different professions (one produces cattle, another hunts slaves, another sells weapons, another smuggles silver, etc.). With the Plata basin being opened to navigation, a common identity is likely. From then on, it is difficult to say anything.

Thank you for this amazing explanation!

 

[ghappy1000]

So, no Asuncion should lead to a Portuguese Argentina.

 

[unprincipled peter]

Spain still claims Argentina/Paraguay region. They don't simply roll over and watch Portugal usurp those claims. Spain allowed Portugal to expand in Brazil because they had no real means of stopping it. The La Plata region is quite a different story. Spain wants to deny Portuguese access to Bolivia/Peru, so they will look to occupy La Plata region. No OTL founding of Asuncion does not stop that basic notion. Plus, Portuguese Brazil is fairly remote from the contested region. Portuguese Brazil is busy looking for precious metals, not farmland, so they're not making southern expansion a priority. There will not be some huge vacuum into which the Portuguese will be drawn to fill the void.

My guess is that dates and details may change, but ultimately the overall situation remains similar. Eventually, the butterflies will cause enough ripples that the base situation may change.

 

[Taunay]

Spain still claims Argentina/Paraguay region. They don't simply roll over and watch Portugal usurp those claims. Spain allowed Portugal to expand in Brazil because they had no real means of stopping it. The La Plata region is quite a different story. Spain wants to deny Portuguese access to Bolivia/Peru, so they will look to occupy La Plata region. No OTL founding of Asuncion does not stop that basic notion. Plus, Portuguese Brazil is fairly remote from the contested region. Portuguese Brazil is busy looking for precious metals, not farmland, so they're not making southern expansion a priority. There will not be some huge vacuum into which the Portuguese will be drawn to fill the void.

My guess is that dates and details may change, but ultimately the overall situation remains similar. Eventually, the butterflies will cause enough ripples that the base situation may change.

I wouldn't say that they always didn't care about Argentina. In fact, Portugal considered the La Plata river as part of its jurisdiction

 

[ghappy1000]

The foundation of Asunción in 1537 was essential to safeguarding Spanish hegemony in the Rio de la Plata, as Asunción was the base from which the cities of Santa Cruz (Bolivia), Santa Fé, Corrientes and most importantly Buenos Aires were founded.
If the expedition that led to the foundation of the Paraguayan capital failed, what would be the consequences? Would there be a Portuguese expansion into the Rio de La Plata and the Southern Cone in general? Would Portugal annex more of Bolivia?

There would be Portuguese expansion into the Rio de la Plata and the Southern Cone and adding Chile, Bolivia, Paraguay, Argentina and Uruguay to Portuguese Brazil.

 

[unprincipled peter]

There would be Portuguese expansion into the Rio de la Plata and the Southern Cone and adding Chile, Bolivia, Paraguay, Argentina and Uruguay to Portuguese Brazil.

That's a lot more on the plate than Portugal's belly can hold.

 

[holycookie]

Spain still claims Argentina/Paraguay region.

They claim the south of OTL Brazil. But they lost, through a mix of attrition and lack of land use.

They don't simply roll over and watch Portugal usurp those claims.

Without a doubt, the biggest problem is having a city that survives. For this to happen without something like the fortress city that was Asunción, they will have to actually invest in a larger military expedition (aka an army).

Spain allowed Portugal to expand in Brazil because they had no real means of stopping it. The La Plata region is quite a different story. Spain wants to deny Portuguese access to Bolivia/Peru, so they will look to occupy La Plata region.

I think they are trying to advance through Bolivia instead of entering the La Plata basin. Or simply place forts in the northern part of the Pilcomayo and Bermejo rivers. This in theory would prevent illegal silver trading.

Portuguese Brazil is busy looking for precious metal so they're not making southern expansion a priority. There will not be some huge vacuum into which the Portuguese will be drawn to fill the void.

Not really, those who are looking for and finding precious metals are the bandeirantes. The crown only rewarded these explorers (Sometimes). They did not make expansion their priority that is true, expansion was carried out by local settlers (who did not obey treaties between the Iberian powers). Without the support of the Spanish, battles like the Battle of M'Bororé will be won by the bandeirantes who will expand more in the Plata basin than in the OTL. As a whole, if it is too costly to try to colonize the region, they will only strengthen the fortifications in Bolivia. Not as if the region matters much to the Spanish.
PS: Not to mention that the expansion of the bandeirantes to the south has to do with the enslavement of the natives and not precious metals.

 

[holycookie]

There would be Portuguese expansion into the Rio de la Plata and the Southern Cone and adding Chile, Bolivia, Paraguay, Argentina and Uruguay to Portuguese Brazil.

Nop. There is the probable and the improbable. This is improbable. It is likely that they will arrive at OTL Uruguay. From there expand to OTL states of Buenos Aires, Entre Rios, Corrientes and Missiones. Then they will expand over the decades/centuries, probably trying to attack Bolivia. But being unable to conquer it, due to its importance for Spain.

 

[unprincipled peter]

Nop. There is the probable and the improbable. This is improbable. It is likely that they will arrive at OTL Uruguay. From there expand to OTL states of Buenos Aires, Entre Rios, Corrientes and Missiones. Then they will expand over the decades/centuries, probably trying to attack Bolivia. But being unable to conquer it, due to its importance for Spain.

I would put your scenario as possible, but question whether it is probable. Uruguay, Entre Rios, Corrientes, Missiones and Paraguay are all in contention. The TL would go differently, and Portugal can certainly do better, but I don't think they make massive land gains. Spain would have to give up on the region, and I don't think that's happening.

 

[holycookie]

Uruguay, Entre Rios, Corrientes, Missiones and Paraguay are all in contention.

Absolutely due to the fact that the Plata basin gives access to this entire entrance. And with the Portuguese/Brazilians controlling Uruguay they can expand in that direction.

but I don't think they make massive land gains.

They won't gain massive lands. If you really see what Spain controlled in the La Plata basin, it's basically nothing, it's just a few fortress cities. Without these strong cities, they have no control over the region (or rather, no way to truly colonize the region). Without this and with the Portuguese controlling the entry and exit of the Plata basin (through Uruguay). Spanish expansion will be through Bolivia. This is basically what happened with the Amazon. The territory was Spanish, but they were unable to maintain control of the mouth of the basin, and as a result they lost control of the rest in the long term. The La Plata region was literally the most irrelevant and unwanted part of the Spanish Empire. It survived through a mixture of the weakness of the Portuguese crown and good luck because the English were busy when the war between Portugal and Spain over the region broke out.

Spain would have to give up on the region, and I don't think that's happening.

Spain will not give up on the region, in the same way that Spain did not give up most of the territory lost to its empire. They will say that the territory is theirs and will partially control it, Portugal will deny this and partially control the territory. In the long term, because Portugal controls the mouth of the Plata basin, they will control the most coastal part and Spain will control the part close to the Andes. In the long term, one side can win or both can stagnate.