P-40's present in Ceylon in Indian Ocean Raid, 1942

[Sport25ing]

Fro this youtube video:

Both the cargo ship MS Sea Witch and the USS Langley were transporting P-40's fighters to Ceylon before the US command requested all fighters possible to be send to Java - in the end, both Langley and the oiler USS Peco were lost, while, ironically, all fighters that Sea Witch delivered were destroyed shortly after to prevent them for falling to Japanese hands.

So, maybe realizing that Java would fall regardless, the US command didn't request the extra fighters, and all would be delivered to Ceylon. And now, the Japanese raid on the island now faces what might be the equivalent to an US fighter group of P-40E's defending the area - what could be the small consequences. Could they save the heavy cruisers Dorsetshire and Cornwall and the carrier Hermes? Or nothing would change and Somerville would still send its fleet to East Africa?

And as a small sidenote: what would be the role of USS Langley from maybe the events of Midway forward?

 

[naraic]

I believe USS Langley carried 32 assembled P40s while MS Sea Witch carried 27 disassembled P40s.

Were there pilots and air wing staff used to the P40 ready in Ceylon or would they spend months in familiarisation.

Perhaps if Ceylon's airbases is more of a threat the raids on airbases will be ramped up, there will be a few fighter battles and the Japanese naval aviation group's experienced pilots will suffer some attrition.

I suspect Dorsetshire and Cornwall will escape as the planes used to attack them will instead be involved in a greater Colombo attack.

If USS Lanley is saved I suspect she would continue to be used mainly as an aircraft ferry.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

Kido Butai's A6Ms slaughter them like they did the Fulmars and Hurricanes IOTL. Japanese losses might be slightly heavier, but not by much.

(The Colombo dogfight was probably the biggest boner the A6M ever scored against the Western Allies. 21 Hurricanes, 4 Fulmars and 6 Swordfish in exchange for 1 A6M and 6 D3As is NOT a good look).

 

[Belisarius II]

Thanks for the video. Sure 40 or so P-40E on Ceylon would help in the defense of the Island. Unfortunately, Cornwall and Dorsetshire were 200 miles SW of the Island when they were sunk which was too far away for the P-40's to be flying cover for them. If Langley survived, she would've been used like many CVE's were as aircraft ferries. She'd probably be shuttling fighters into Guadalcanal during the critical period of late 1942. Depending on how many P-40's survived the Japanese raid some of them could've tried to cover Hermes, but there were so many dive bombers in the attack formation she was probably doomed.

 

[alspug]

The P-40E was fast and heavilyu armed. It's use by pilots familiar with Italian fighters could have been very interesting as it's speed was enough to make it hard to combat especially in diving attacks. The diversion of 40 decent fighters would have increased the amount of opposition the Japanese faced and could have resulted in significant numbers of the attacking Japanese being shot down.

It is worth remembering that every Japanese Carrier pilot shot down ws a 12 month reduction in capability for the IJN and at a critical point of the war. Imagine if an extra 20 pilots are removed from the Carriers and for the next 12 months they go into battle with that many less pilots. The follow on effect would be incredibly profound and create even more problems and reduce commesurate allied losses.

If Ceylon is better defended then it is possible that Nagumo does not chase South and catch Hermes at all. Instead he sends a further raid or two against Ceylon and losses more pilots.

 

[alspug]

I believe USS Langley carried 32 assembled P40s while MS Sea Witch carried 27 disassembled P40s.

Were there pilots and air wing staff used to the P40 ready in Ceylon or would they spend months in familiarisation.

Perhaps if Ceylon's airbases is more of a threat the raids on airbases will be ramped up, there will be a few fighter battles and the Japanese naval aviation group's experienced pilots will suffer some attrition.

I suspect Dorsetshire and Cornwall will escape as the planes used to attack them will instead be involved in a greater Colombo attack.

If USS Lanley is saved I suspect she would continue to be used mainly as an aircraft ferry.

The British had already used the Kittyhawk in the Western Desert and many of those pilots had begun moving to the Pacific theatre. With enough P-40E to create three full squadrons the possibility of two combat and one conversion unit is high.

 

[Belisarius II]

The P-40E was fast and heavilyu armed. It's use by pilots familiar with Italian fighters could have been very interesting as it's speed was enough to make it hard to combat especially in diving attacks. The diversion of 40 decent fighters would have increased the amount of opposition the Japanese faced and could have resulted in significant numbers of the attacking Japanese being shot down.

It is worth remembering that every Japanese Carrier pilot shot down ws a 12 month reduction in capability for the IJN and at a critical point of the war. Imagine if an extra 20 pilots are removed from the Carriers and for the next 12 months they go into battle with that many less pilots. The follow on effect would be incredibly profound and create even more problems and reduce commesurate allied losses.

If Ceylon is better defended then it is possible that Nagumo does not chase South and catch Hermes at all. Instead he sends a further raid or two against Ceylon and losses more pilots.

Respectfully you're taking that too literally. The Japanese were able to replace their loses with well-trained pilots up to the end of 1942. By that point they'd lost over 1,000 pilots in the fighting in the Solomon Islands from both combat and operational losses. It wasn't until 1943 that the quality of IJNAF naval aviators started to seriously decline. In early 1943 Admiral Yamamoto was sending his carrier groups ashore to fight in the grinding battles in the Solomon Islands. Late in 1943 his successors had to train new carrier groups to fill flightdecks. By then they still had numbers, but the level of training had fallen dramatically. Losing 20 more aircraft at Ceylon in April 1942 would make no significant difference to operations later in the year.

 

[naraic]

Thanks for the video. Sure 40 or so P-40E on Ceylon would help in the defense of the Island. Unfortunately, Cornwall and Dorsetshire were 200 miles SW of the Island when they were sunk which was too far away for the P-40's to be flying cover for them.

First off would Cornwall and Dorsetshire have been in that position if there was decent fighter cover in Ceylons.

Secondly the strike that sank Corwall and Dorsetshire was being prepared to hit airbase around colombo. The second strike on Ceylon airbases was diverted as the first strike was successful and another target became available.

If the first strike was to be considered a failure I believe a second strike on Colombo would happen and would be a higher priority than the cruisers.

 

[Belisarius II]

First off would Cornwall and Dorsetshire have been in that position if there was decent fighter cover in Ceylons.

Secondly the strike that sank Corwall and Dorsetshire was being prepared to hit airbase around colombo. The second strike on Ceylon airbases was diverted as the first strike was successful and another target became available.

If the first strike was to be considered a failure I believe a second strike on Colombo would happen and would be a higher priority than the cruisers.

The morning strike on Columbo caught the British by surprise. Any P-40's would've been caught on the ground like the Hurricanes in the OTL. Once the Japanese sighted ships at sea they became the priority because they were a threat to the fleet. The purpose of the raid wasn't to take out fighter planes it was to destroy the Eastern Fleet. Nagumo's big mistake was not sending out an adequate air search screen to find Force A. The two fleets came so close they almost stumbled into each other. If the Japanese found Force A both RN carriers would've probable been sunk that afternoon along with the 2 CA's and the Hermes making Ceylon a strategic defeat rather than just a tactical one. The whole Indian Ocean would've been left wide open to a Japanese advance.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

The morning strike on Columbo caught the British by surprise. Any P-40's would've been caught on the ground like the Hurricanes in the OTL. .

Semi surprise. The Hurricanes didn't scramble until someone visually spotted the incoming Japanese (due to an incomplete air warning network), but only four Hurricanes were still taxiing when the first bombs started dropping and only one of these four was destroyed on the ground. The remainder thirty Hurricanes and six Fulmars were totally unmolested during takeoff. All in all, I would consider the Colombo air battle a fair fight.

 

[Belisarius II]

Semi surprise. The Hurricanes didn't scramble until someone visually spotted the incoming Japanese (due to an incomplete air warning network), but only four Hurricanes were still taxiing when the first bombs started dropping and only one of these four was destroyed on the ground. The remainder thirty Hurricanes and six Fulmars were totally unmolested during takeoff. All in all, I would consider the Colombo air battle a fair fight.

Your right, it was a fair fight. The Japanese hit the harbor more than the airfields because they wanted to knock it out as a naval base. In the fair fight the IJNAF lost 7 aircraft the RAF lost 20. I don't know what the state of the airfields were, so I don't know how crowded they'd be with maybe 36 P-40E's based in the area tying to take off along with 36 other fighters. Only so many planes can take off from X number of runways. Still due to the semi surprise the A6M2's will have the altitude advantage. The RAF has more fighters than in the OTL, and the P-40E is a better fighter than the Hurrican but the tactical situation is still bad.

 

[Athelstane]

Your right, it was a fair fight. The Japanese hit the harbor more than the airfields because they wanted to knock it out as a naval base. In the fair fight the IJNAF lost 7 aircraft the RAF lost 20. I don't know what the state of the airfields were, so I don't know how crowded they'd be with maybe 36 P-40E's based in the area tying to take off along with 36 other fighters. Only so many planes can take off from X number of runways. Still due to the semi surprise the A6M2's will have the altitude advantage. The RAF has more fighters than in the OTL, and the P-40E is a better fighter than the Hurrican but the tactical situation is still bad.

Yes, there's a lot of other pieces of the puzzle you need to really make these P-40's effective.

On balance, I suppose, it can't hurt, but I think any impact they have on the outcome of Operation C is going to be....marginal. Anyway, if the Joint Chiefs understand that reinforcing Java really is futile, I have to think they would be much more likely to divert the planes to Australia than Ceylon.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

Your right, it was a fair fight. The Japanese hit the harbor more than the airfields because they wanted to knock it out as a naval base. In the fair fight the IJNAF lost 7 aircraft the RAF lost 20. I don't know what the state of the airfields were, so I don't know how crowded they'd be with maybe 36 P-40E's based in the area tying to take off along with 36 other fighters. Only so many planes can take off from X number of runways. Still due to the semi surprise the A6M2's will have the altitude advantage. The RAF has more fighters than in the OTL, and the P-40E is a better fighter than the Hurrican but the tactical situation is still bad.

All things considering, Fuchida's boys hit the harbour a lot lighter than they did either Pearl or Darwin.

Trincomalee's China Bay airfield was described as a 'wide grass runway'; I don't think Ratmalana, the Racecourse and Kokkilai were any different. Of note is the fact that the Racecourse airfield was made operational to alleviate crowding at Ratmalana.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

More or different aircraft at Ceylon would make little to no difference IMO

The fears in the 1930s that "The Bomber will always get through" was only made a lie with the implementation of an air defence network system which included radar and an integrated fighter control system to allow fighters to be scrambled with enough time to reach altitude and be vectored onto any given air raid.

It takes 11 minutes from scramble to Hurricanes arriving at altitude - probably a few minutes less on the 5th April as the Pilots were ready to scramble.

There was no such 'robust' system yet in place at Ceylon in April 1942 - almost - but not yet (AMES 254 Radar unit had only arrived in late march and only fully operational on 28th March and did not detect the inbound air raid anyway) - And the system did not provide a timely alert.

The majority of the RAF fighters did get airborne but the Japanese attackers were pretty much already overhead when they were taking off.

This despite the fighters being ready to scramble and expecting an attack on the 5th April - sadly the air raid was not detected in timely fashion and therefore a timely scramble alert was not given.

No 30 and 261 Squadron where not Green or anything - both had seen operational action in the Middle East and North Africa but the IJN Pilots were the First team and the A6m was a superior fighter and a newer design than the Hurricane (and any P40 E) and certainly superior to the 803 and 806 NAS Fulmars

So given that there is little difference between a P40E and a Hurricane IIB performance wise the only thing that they would have brought to the battle was more aircraft - so perhaps the Fulmars could have been used to cover the ships with the P40s forming the patrol line (which also failed to detect any inbound raid!) - at best slightly more Japanese aircraft might have been shot down but I see little change.

The 2 Heavy cruisers were lost due to the intelligence SNAFU that had predicted the raid on the 1st April and when it failed to materialise everyone stood down on the 2nd with the 2 Cruisers detached for convoys escort duty and travelling to Columbo only to quickly leave again on the 4th when the Japanese were detected again.

So again I see little change to their fates here

At the end of the day IMO the Easter Sunday raid while a victory for the IJN achieved very little at great risk to the Japanese Navy's principle striking force plus additional wear and tear to the aircraft estate and ships - sinking Hermes and the 2 Cruisers was the highlight and pretty much a fluke due to the allied intel mis predicting the date of the attack and those ship badly out of position - but the main purpose of the attack was to find and destroy the British fleet which it failed to do.

So a better POD wold be increased and earlier integrated radar on the Island allowing an earlier detection and at least 11 minutes for the fighters to reach altitude and be vectored onto the raid.

That even with the aircraft they had OTL would be a far more important POD - and then we might see a difference!

 

[Butchpfd]

In my opinion the high point of this idea, is the survival of the Langley. With the Langley surviving the Allies have a ship capable of transporting assembled aircraft. If the Langley can make it stateside there is a good chance she will get her full flight deck back. Spending the rest of the war as an aircraft transport or CVE.