OTL, the treaty of Tordesillas, and all that was to prevent war between those two kingdoms. But in the event that a Portuguese Castilian union forms while leaving Aragon out via a marriage of Isabella and John II of Portugal (hell maybe Afonso V's first son named john lives) then, well... war is kinda difficult. unless they have a really messy divorce. But it becomes especially difficult after a hypothetical kid. Regardless, since now nobles of both realms benefit from the same overseas exploration and the king probably doesn't want to say "okay people from this side of my realm can only go this way and the ones from this part go the other way" how is colonialism likely to develop? will the French or someone else take up Columbus and find the new world? if they do will they see it as worth it? or will they land too far north of the golden cities? Or is the discovery stunted until someone bumps into brazil? Or does whatever iberian monarch still takeup Columbus and still find Mexico, leading to Angola, Mexico, and whatever else sharing a monarch ala the iberian union?
Portuguese-Castilian Union Makes Up Spain; How Does Colonization Develop?
- Thread starter AltoRegnant
- Start date
It would be interesting, but a Portuguese-Castillian Union has many problems to solve.
really? not france? but which would you say has a better shot at claiming the new world?
proably true, but so did castile-aragon. and would you have any specific ones at this point?
As it was, OTL Spanish exploration and colonisation was done nearly entirely by Castile in the first place. Aragon has generally been focused on the Mediterranean.
I have to imagine the crowns of Castile and Portugal would remain separate, if only just in personal union, with each having their own Cortes and laws, but it is possible that there could be more cooperation when it comes to trade. This alt-Spain might not even have a Colombus asking to go west, whose survival may be butterflied away entirely.
I have to imagine the crowns of Castile and Portugal would remain separate, if only just in personal union, with each having their own Cortes and laws, but it is possible that there could be more cooperation when it comes to trade. This alt-Spain might not even have a Colombus asking to go west, whose survival may be butterflied away entirely.
that was the case otl until the bourbons between castile and aragon. technically it was true between castile and leon, to give an idea of how decentralized spain was
In our timeline, Castille and Aragon remained separate kingdoms until the eighteenth century. They did colonization separately, with Castille colonizing the Americas and the Philippines, and Aragon focused on the Mediterranean.
Portugal was united with the other Iberian kingdoms for eighty years. The colonial empires remained separate. The main effect was to drag Portugal into wars with the Dutch and the English.
Tordesillas is still a thing, since Portugal and Castille ITTL are separate countries that happen to share a monarch.
The big effect is that the monarchs are now changed. The entire Hapsburg and Burgundian connection is likely butterflied away. Castille -and Portugal- are not being tapped in support of policies in the Netherlands, Central Europe, and Mediterranean. On the other hand, Navarre definitely and Aragon likely are French satellites and this will cause problems for Castille and Portugal.
Portugal was united with the other Iberian kingdoms for eighty years. The colonial empires remained separate. The main effect was to drag Portugal into wars with the Dutch and the English.
Tordesillas is still a thing, since Portugal and Castille ITTL are separate countries that happen to share a monarch.
The big effect is that the monarchs are now changed. The entire Hapsburg and Burgundian connection is likely butterflied away. Castille -and Portugal- are not being tapped in support of policies in the Netherlands, Central Europe, and Mediterranean. On the other hand, Navarre definitely and Aragon likely are French satellites and this will cause problems for Castille and Portugal.
Honestly, at this time and without Aragon, it should be relatively feasible. Both Portugal and Castile were interested in Atlantic exploration, so deciding where to invest should be fairly straightforward. The problem is that the sheer size of the Castilian aristocracy would make the Portuguese elites very, very uncomfortable, but separate courts (as was the case with Aragon IOTL) would serve to mitigate these fears. This most likely would result in separate colonial empires still, but the way these empires would come about may be fairly different...
Which is why we probably need to settle on a POD. The person in charge of this union for the first few years is going to matter a lot, and if that person is John II that has... well, consequences
Without a need to compete with Portugal - here Castile piggybacks off their African route - I'm guessing noone picks up Columbus.
So the European Age of Discovery then kicks off with Brazil being found and the Caribbean discovered by heading northwest along the Brazilian coast before others work out the way OTL Columbus took and the northern routes.
I'm unclear how Portugal and Castile will divvy up their colonies though.
Both France and England stand to gain more southern territories I think.
Peru/Incan Empire might be at worst a Protectorate.
So the European Age of Discovery then kicks off with Brazil being found and the Caribbean discovered by heading northwest along the Brazilian coast before others work out the way OTL Columbus took and the northern routes.
I'm unclear how Portugal and Castile will divvy up their colonies though.
Both France and England stand to gain more southern territories I think.
Peru/Incan Empire might be at worst a Protectorate.
they were actually rivals for a while over Rosellion, and with the smaller border, I could see Aragon remaining a nuisance.
would it be pushed from the nobles up? OTL, exploration was based on the monarchs, hence why I'm less confident the empires would remain separated.
assuming it's OTL John II and Isabella of Castile, how do things shape up?
AFAIK all early means to get a unified Portugal-Castille will have the Kings of Portugal in the driver's seat. This whole shebang is effectively running out of Lisbon early on and gonna have a strong Portuguese presence in colonial ventures, to the point that someone akin to Colombus might sail for Portugal instead of Castille. Heck, even the treaty that preceded the Treaty of Tordesillas, the Treaty of Alcacovas, is likely to have ended with a treaty that heavily favors Portugal. Maybe even to the point, that the Canaries were seized from Castille and Portugal established a monopoly on Morrocco and the Atlantic.
If Portugal's leading the charge on colonialism and the semi-subservient Crown of Castille is legally blocked out of the Atlantic then there's a very strong possibility that all colonialism by this ATL Spain is managed by Portugal, but leverages the manpower of all of its constituent kingdoms. It provides a means to either equalize the political weight of each component realm, or to centralize the realm around the King of Spain if colonization rights are leveraged to extract concessions that can break down barriers between the realms that make up Spain. Maybe a renegotiation of the ATL Treaty of Alcacovas that gave Portugal a monopoly is renegotiated internally to establish a state apparatus that overrules both kingdoms, such as a shared Spanish cortes?
Assuming it's still Colombus and his voyages are similar to OTL, then there's a good chance that Caribbean exploration and early colonization go as OTL. Where things get interesting is that Portuguese interests will also have to be catered to, and that likely means a very early settlement of Newfoundland for its fisheries. With no colonial conflicts, somewhere like Montevideo is likely to be colonized and populated sooner than OTL due to zero ambiguity on who controls the Rio de La Plata. The OTL conquests of the Aztec and Inca are likely to be butterflied or look way different than they did, the Inca especially which depended on near-perfect timing by the conquistadors.
And that brings us to the final question mark, Morrocco. With a unified Portugal-Castille I honestly think that Morroco's days are numbered. With no more bickering or political considerations to hamper plans, a unified invasion of the area fueled by New World wealth and no Holy Roman or Italian commitments seems imminent and this is likely to make use of the conquistadors that OTL went to the New World after the conquest of Granada. I guess on the bright side, the expulsions of Muslims and Jews from OTL are less likely to occur, though by no means unlikely. Portugal was a more tolerant state than Castille ever was. This is also likely to butterfly much of the conquests of OTL with the manpower that originally went towards the New World's conquistadors being refocused on Morocco.
The final thing worth bringing up is that the language of the people is likely to see significant shifts(IMO) given enough time. Ships and armies are going to draw from both Portugal and Castille and it's likely that a pidgin somewhere between the two eventually develops such that it's a smooth process to bring on more manpower quickly. Think of it the same way you might think of Sabir, except that this language is gonna have some ramifications on the identity of the state and the slang of the people that may eventually make its way into proper vocabulary. I don't think that we'll get a situation where one language supersedes the other or that Iberian-Sabir is gonna be the national language of a unified Spain in the modern-day, but there's potential there for an even higher degree of mutual intelligibility than OTL if pronunciations are warped. My understanding is that the Portuguese seem to be able to grasp what a Spaniard is saying if they talk slow, but Spaniards claim they can't understand anything Portuguese speakers are saying. Lines up with my personal anecdotes at any rate
If Portugal's leading the charge on colonialism and the semi-subservient Crown of Castille is legally blocked out of the Atlantic then there's a very strong possibility that all colonialism by this ATL Spain is managed by Portugal, but leverages the manpower of all of its constituent kingdoms. It provides a means to either equalize the political weight of each component realm, or to centralize the realm around the King of Spain if colonization rights are leveraged to extract concessions that can break down barriers between the realms that make up Spain. Maybe a renegotiation of the ATL Treaty of Alcacovas that gave Portugal a monopoly is renegotiated internally to establish a state apparatus that overrules both kingdoms, such as a shared Spanish cortes?
Assuming it's still Colombus and his voyages are similar to OTL, then there's a good chance that Caribbean exploration and early colonization go as OTL. Where things get interesting is that Portuguese interests will also have to be catered to, and that likely means a very early settlement of Newfoundland for its fisheries. With no colonial conflicts, somewhere like Montevideo is likely to be colonized and populated sooner than OTL due to zero ambiguity on who controls the Rio de La Plata. The OTL conquests of the Aztec and Inca are likely to be butterflied or look way different than they did, the Inca especially which depended on near-perfect timing by the conquistadors.
And that brings us to the final question mark, Morrocco. With a unified Portugal-Castille I honestly think that Morroco's days are numbered. With no more bickering or political considerations to hamper plans, a unified invasion of the area fueled by New World wealth and no Holy Roman or Italian commitments seems imminent and this is likely to make use of the conquistadors that OTL went to the New World after the conquest of Granada. I guess on the bright side, the expulsions of Muslims and Jews from OTL are less likely to occur, though by no means unlikely. Portugal was a more tolerant state than Castille ever was. This is also likely to butterfly much of the conquests of OTL with the manpower that originally went towards the New World's conquistadors being refocused on Morocco.
The final thing worth bringing up is that the language of the people is likely to see significant shifts(IMO) given enough time. Ships and armies are going to draw from both Portugal and Castille and it's likely that a pidgin somewhere between the two eventually develops such that it's a smooth process to bring on more manpower quickly. Think of it the same way you might think of Sabir, except that this language is gonna have some ramifications on the identity of the state and the slang of the people that may eventually make its way into proper vocabulary. I don't think that we'll get a situation where one language supersedes the other or that Iberian-Sabir is gonna be the national language of a unified Spain in the modern-day, but there's potential there for an even higher degree of mutual intelligibility than OTL if pronunciations are warped. My understanding is that the Portuguese seem to be able to grasp what a Spaniard is saying if they talk slow, but Spaniards claim they can't understand anything Portuguese speakers are saying. Lines up with my personal anecdotes at any rate
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Where do you imagine this Avis spain would orient diplomatically? Would they remain close to England like Portugal otl or would Castile's population and nobility be drawn to france via history of cooperation and proximity
This is probably not going to go very well. Portugal never had the need for Castille that Aragon had, Aragon's constant wars in Italy and Rosillon forced it into twisting it's arms with Castille many times, which is why Aragon never had a real want or need to separate itself from Castille. Portugal by this time was one of the richest nations in Europe and had no need for Castille's own resources, and it just stood to lose in a situation where the Castillian nobility would eventually want to step on Portugal's jurisdiction like OTL, both in North Africa especially Morocco and in the Americas, and with such a union probably even the Indies. I don't see Portugal tolerating such an union for long if Castille doesn't drop concessions, and I doubt the Castillians would be willing to do so.
Another point is the political differences between Castille and Portugal - Castille was a very descentralized realm where each of it's constituent realms had it's own laws and autonomy. Portugal due to it's different origins was much more centralized from the start and John the II was essentially the first absolute monarch of Europe at this time. Aragon did not have this problem as it itself was heavily decentralized and thus could work at the same pace at Castille.
Another point is the political differences between Castille and Portugal - Castille was a very descentralized realm where each of it's constituent realms had it's own laws and autonomy. Portugal due to it's different origins was much more centralized from the start and John the II was essentially the first absolute monarch of Europe at this time. Aragon did not have this problem as it itself was heavily decentralized and thus could work at the same pace at Castille.
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In raw technicality, Alcavovas probably gets butterflied since the castilian civil war probably doesn't get far in a John-Isabaella marriage (Alfonso V wouldnt help the pretender in that scenario)
That would effectively make spain not dissimilar to britain after the act of union, which could be very interesting
So, Canada, the Caribbean, Brazil/La Plata and Angola on lock; Mexico, Colombia, Peru and Patagonia up in the air?
Do you think Morocco would be turned into a sorta settler colony, with Spaniards tossed over the strait and missions set up to christianize it in the long term, but not actively punishing the moors? Or would the kingdom not really bother with it? Would it be considered a crown in it's own right or just part of one of the others?
Who will be in charge? Portugal or Castille? Will they support each other or everyone for himself? Are Castillians allowed to settle in Portuguese colonies and vice-versa? Etc.
Pretty much yeah, except if Scotland had all of the colonial holdings
The only safe bets IMO are Hispaniola, Cuba, eastern Brazil, Newfoundland, and some port on the Atlantic coast of Africa in the Gulf of Guinea southwards which might be Angola, might not be. Now chances are good IMO that they set up shop in the Rio de La Plata, more Caribbean islands, etc. but the priorities of colonists back then are impossible to guarantee, nor the response of other European crowns to the whole endeavor that might mean lands they'd otherwise claim eventually are seized early. Though that response is gonna differ mightily from OTL depending on how PortuSpain ends up colonizing if it differs from OTL's conquest style and is something more reminiscent of Brazil. No New World empires to loot and the rumors of gold and treasure and imminent wealth are going to be far, far more muted dampening interest from other powers whose actual interests are locked down on continental affairs, such as France.
Your range of possibilities is anywhere from the entirety of the Americas and most of Africa below the Congo Rainforest, to a few sleepy colonial outposts that are nominal trade posts and largely ignored as all of their efforts go into domination of the Indian Ocean and North Africa.
I think settlement attempts are certain. The Iberian kingdoms have seared Reconquista into their national identities and with a direct continuation of the process into Morocco, it wouldn't shock me at all to see them spend vast amounts of their New World and East Indies profits into 'properly' Christianizing Morrocco for centuries and perhaps even carrying on their ambitions all the way to Tunis or Tripoli given enough time and enough resources. This has other tangential benefits that will help keep the Papacy happy by limiting the power of North African piracy, limiting the influence of the Ottoman Empire in the Western Mediterranean, and likely encourage others to rend aid to the Spanish by dubbing their efforts crusades. Anything that helps bolster PR while the Ottoman Empire (presumably) rolls through the Balkans and Hungary as OTL is likely, IMO.
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I mean, once they hit up hispaniola, isn't some level of interaction with the Mexica near inevitable, and since these are the reconquista states, an attempted conquest?
Not if they took a swing at the Moroccans shortly after the conquest of Granada. That class of low nobility with martial prowess and experience that made up the conquistadors is gonna get decimated in the process and military adventures in the New World against organized states won't be feasible for at least a few decades(if ever). Especially if the first means of contact cement early trade ties that render the idea of invasions moot or has pushback from merchants that got to the Mesoamericans first. Barring serious diplomatic faux pas such as sacrificing missionaries and being fool enough to let other Spanish traders flee and report back to the crown, I don't think it's too likely while the Spanish are going full Reconquista on North Africa, especially if they've gotten any significant successes. How long until the Pope resurrects the Kingdom of Africa as bait?
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Interesting. I also imagine spain would remain allies with Austria (if less so than otl) because their actions in north africa would draw the ire of the turks. So that begs the question, what do other powers like france and england do?