Rome divided earlier

[johnreiter]

In 43 BC, the Second Triumvirate divided the Roman Empire into three parts, with Octavian getting the west, Mark Antony the east, and Lepidus Africa.

What if Rome had remained divided? How would each of these states have developed over the years, and how would in change European history?

 

[charlesBlackFrey]

I think it would end up as a disaster in the long run for the west like in OTL as the east had the most wealth and trade connections and Africa has fertile lands.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

The West had the stronger agriculture and stronger army, very much so in the first century BC, but down to the fourth century AD. The idea that the West was inherently weaker than the East is a historical myth.

In the first century BC, there was no reason for the triumvers not to try to take over the entire republic or empire.

After that, when there were two Emperors, they were supposed to rule jointly.

The situation in the third century AD is that groups of legions would just proclaim their own Emperors in various regions. Diocletian tried to fix this by just allowing each regional group of armies to have their own Emperor or Sub-Emperor (Caesar). He also created a much more elaborate civilian bureaucracy, that was regionally group, so you wound up with one chief bureaucrat (Praetorian Prefect) in the eastern group of provinces, and one in the western group of provinces. But they were supposed to be a sort of collective leadership. In fact they alternated between working together and in-fighting.

This sort of grew into separate empires, but I'm not sure that the two halves would have grown apart if the West hadn't fallen apart into fiefs of German warlords, but the East dealt with its problems and continued. For example, the two halves kept the same legal system, right through the Dark Ages.

 

[johnreiter]

Here are some of my thoughts on how each empire would evolve.

The Western Empire will remain under the rule of the Latin elite, from Rome, and will probably have a succession of Emperors similar to the OTL Julio-Claudian dynasty. In the short term, W-Rome will finish conquering Hispania. With no concerns about overextending himself, Augustus and his successors may concentrate more on conquering Britain, and maybe Germania. I'm not sure how that would go. Agriculturally, the empire would be very sharply split north to south. Home style agriculture will not do as well in northern Gaul or Germania, and the Germans will be hard to control, being so spread out. OTOH, the area is ripe for colonization. It is so empty. Overtime, the Roman Legions will come to be made more and more of Germanic and Celtic people, until the Latin elite is overthrown and replaced by a romanized German elite

The Eastern Empire has a majority Greek and Hellenic population, and so will become increasingly Greek in culture overtime, looking on themselves as the natural successors to the glorious reign of Alexander the Great. Mark Anthony and Cleopatra will likely go through with their plan to have Caesarion marry Antonia, and their dynasty will continue to rule the east and peacefully annex Egypt. The Eastern Romans will likely maintain the capital at Alexandria, the largest and richest city in the east. Athens was long past it's glory by this point. Militarily, they will spend nearly all their time fighting with the Parthian Empire in Persia, though they may also conquer Dacia, as OTL Rome did under Trajan. It will be in Eastern Rome that Christianity will first rise, though friendly relations between the empires will mean that it will probably spread just as far as in OTL.

Southern Rome will (most unwillingly) come to be seen as the heirs to the legacy of Carthage. Their culture will become more Punic overtime, as that was the majority of the population in that region. Initially, they will concentrate on conquering Mauritania. Afterward, with no other directions form expansion, they will concentrate on re-tracing the voyages of Hanno the Navigator around Africa, in search of new lands and trading partners. Eventually, by sea or by camel overland, they will make contact with the Sahel civilizations of West Africa. There will be a great deal of trade (maybe even some fighting, the Moroccans IOTL invaded this region several times in the middle ages) which will lead to a lot of cultural exchange between these regions. This will accelerate the development of West Africa, and also cause Southern Rome to take on more elements of African culture.