How would the 1997 election have gone if John Smith had lived and Tony Blair not become leader? Assuming Labour wins how many seats do they win and what does Smith do while in office that would be different to Blair?
How would a Smith premiership affect the crash later down the line? e.g. would he deregulate the banks and even if he didn't would matter due to the crash starting in America?To sum up previous threads on this issue; Labour win a large majority in 1997, though maybe not quite so many seats as OTL, maybe they get somewhere in the 375-400 range. That's still enough to get quite a bit done.
Policy wise, a lot of it would be similar to OTL, though Smith might opt for more progressive taxation like bringing in the 50p tax rate earlier and pursuing hypothecary taxes, which he was a fan of. Maybe he doesn't do tuition fees, I don't know.
He'd probably commit troops to Afghanistan but not Iraq, which would save Labour a lot of trouble down the road, but it's possible a Euro referendum would fill that vacuum. I can't see the public voting for it, but that's not to say Smith won't try to convince them, given that he was just as strongly in favour of it as Blair was and Brown wouldn't have the clout to block it as he did in OTL. The loss of a vote on the single currency could tear his party apart and kill his premiership in the way that Iraq did for Blair.
Either way, he probably wouldn't stand for a third term. Brown was very much his protege in opposition, but I can see him falling out of favour as time goes by. Blair, Cook and someone like Harman are all possibilities.
Could this lack of Browns Clout lead to him having to be more carefully around is leader and could Smith get rid of him and thus who succeeded him if Blairs stock does decline?Blair was lucky OTL in that he climbed all the way to the top in Opposition. He had a good political vision but he wasn't a detail man and would probably have devalued a lot of his stock as a Labour Health Minister or Home Secretary. I suspect that his career would have been a lot less glorious in a subordinate role. A Labour John Moore perhaps?
Agree that Brown would probably not have remained in favour. Brown knew a lot less about economics than he thought he did and hounded the couple of people in the Labour movement who actually did have a decent understanding about economics out of frontline politics. His reputation as his party's "economics expert" rested mainly on the fact that the rest of the Cabinet knew less about it than he did. And that he stuck to the Tory spending plans for his first two years. Smith did have a basic grasp of economics so probably would have been less than impressed with Brown by year four.
It wouldn't prevent it for one thing, it was an American crisis, the UK isn't big enough to make a big difference with a relatively late PoD. If there is less deregulation, maybe the crisis would be mitigated slightly within the UK, but I'm not certain if that would happen, given that Brown would probably still be Chancellor, at least to start with. Britain's economy would still be heavily reliant on the financial sector anyway, so it still isn't going to come out of the whole thing particularly well.How would a Smith premiership affect the crash later down the line? e.g. would he deregulate the banks and even if he didn't would matter due to the crash starting in America?
He would without a doubt have less power than OTL because he wouldn't have been given such power by the pact he made with Blair. But the fact remains that he was opposed to the Euro whilst Smith was heavily in favour, so disagreements between the two are inevitable, they were already beginning to drift away from each other by the time of Smith's death, and unlike Blair, moving Brown would be a lot easier. Maybe Smith brings in Robin Cook instead, who had a similar outlook to him, particularly on the Euro, or maybe even Blair. I think those two would all be thought of as contenders to replace him if Smith stands down half way through his second term, but I don't Brown has the charisma to emerge from the pack. It could be Cook, but it's entirely possible it could still be Blair. He had the charisma and Smith would probably favoured him over Brown at this point.Could this lack of Browns Clout lead to him having to be more carefully around is leader and could Smith get rid of him and thus who succeeded him if Blairs stock does decline?