Spengler's Prophecy: The Rise of Pochvenik Russia

[Hrvatskiwi]

Tsar Nikolai II and Tsarevich Aleksey Nikolaevich, in happier times​

Awakening in his bed, Tsar Aleksey found that the silk sheets gave him little comfort these days. Instead, the Tsar chafed at the restrictions in his life. He had become accustomed to a gilded captivity since childhood, but this did little to ease his frustration. Under his father, the reach of the Tsarist autocracy spread all through the vast lands of Russia and beyond, but now even he, in name the ‘Imperator Vserossiyskiy’, ‘Emperor of All Russias’, was far from the most authoritative person in this palace. There was a stinging irony in the fact that armies singing his name had marched to the very centre of Europe, winning for him an empire which he seldom got to see. He felt ill, as he usually did in the warm weather of the summer capital of Tsargrad. He much preferred the crisp winters of Petrograd.

There he reminisced of his childhood. In his memory even the mundane had assumed a magical quality. He remembered sitting in meetings with his father and the ministers, the latter arguing and gesticulating wildly whilst Aleksey’s father Nikolai calmly smiled and lay his hand on his son’s head, lovingly running his fingers through Aleksey’s auburn locks. His father could not have been more different to that mad Siberian mystic who treated his illness as a child. Aleksey had never understood the relationship his mother and father had with that Rasputin, the strannik of the wild eyes. He wondered whatever happened to him, for a moment, before his thoughts went back to those meetings. Those gesticulating ministers had, in hindsight, developed a comic quality, particularly in contrast with Russia’s new rulers. Emerging from myriad sources, but largely from the lower nobility, the Pochvenniki dominated Russia now. These men were much harder, more severe and fanatical than the pompous, bloated ministers of yesteryear. They spoke much of Pravoslaviye, Samoderzhaviye, Narodnost' (Orthodoxy, Autocracy and Nationality), but would not let a mere Tsar stand in their way. Not that he had resisted all that steadfastly, mind you, until recently. But in his hearts he knew his acts of defiance, refusing food, panicking bodyguards, running off from his minders during his daily walks, were in the end meaningless. Petty. Inconsequential.

Aleksey recalled the byliny tales of his youth. As a small child he loved the tale of Ilya Muromets. That brave knight had been even sicklier than he had been, unable to walk until well into adulthood. Yet he became imbued with superhuman strength, a Russian Herakles that vanquished the deceitful Solovei-Razboinik, the Nightingale Robber. In adolescence he began to identify more with Alyosha Popovich, the trickster who defeated the monster Tugarin Zmeyevich through cunning. Although a relatively active child, he had learnt to use his wits to entertain himself due to his family’s concerns over his hemophilia. Later in his life, he began to embrace in his mind the story of Dobrynya Nikitich, representative not of himself, but of the Russian state. In the old story, Dobrynya Nikitich defeats against all odds the three-headed dragon Zmey Gorynych, who Aleksey associated in his mind with the Germans, Turks and Austro-Hungarians, crosses the ‘Saracen Mountains’, the Kavkaz, and frees the niece of Knyaz Vladimir, just as Russia had freed the Balkan states from the Turkish menace. Aleksey recalls the triumphant feeling in his heart after the defeat of the three-headed dragon. He was the first Tsar to receive coronation in the Hagia Sophia. Such a triumph now seemed hollow. In his childhood he had entertained fantasies of being an adventuring bogatyr. Now he felt like little more than a coward, albeit against his will.

His heart sunk into his stomach every time he asked one of his ‘advisors’, or more accurately his overseers, about the shape of the empire. He rarely got more than a curt ‘horosho’ or ‘normalno’. Even the newspaper he was given each morning was printed especially for him. No other publications, aside of course the classics of Russian literature, were permitted to be brought into his possession. This was justified, as most deceptions were nowadays, as a "defense of the integrity of the imperial household from the scourge of zapadnichestvo", or "decadent Westernism". Occasionally, on state visits, he had managed to get access to other texts. He had always had a knack for getting along with foreigners, and sometimes they managed to sneak him British, French, American and German newspapers. More often than not, they painted a grim picture of what was going on in Russia, with rumours abounding about mistreatment of various groups, particularly Jews and socialists. Sure, these things had been going on for years, but now it seemed to have gotten much worse. Once he asked one of his minders about the pogroms. He knew from the response that it was better not to ask a second time.

Weary already of such thoughts, made himself some tea. As he poured hot water from the samovar on his breakfast table into his cup of tea concentrate, he glanced out the window. One of the imperial guards, standing some distance away, stared at him. His avtomat pointed to the sky in an unthreatening manner, but the blue-grey gaze of the guardsman made Tsar Aleksey uncomfortable. If they were here to guard him, why are they looking in his direction, rather than outward for threats? Of course, he had known the answer to that question for years now. The Tsar’s heart skipped a beat at the sharp sound of knuckles rapping on the door. Tsar Aleksey didn’t utter a word. Part of him feared even to let forth a breath. A click sounded as the door was unlocked from the outside. The doorknob turned slowly, in time with the creeping dread which filled the heart of the young Tsar. The door opened to reveal a diminutive bondservant woman, barely past the age of twenty. “Oh, you’re awake your Imperial Highness!” she exclaimed, clearly nervous. Tsar Aleksey sighed a breath of relief and began chuckling. “I’m so sorry your Imperial Highness, I…” she started, her arms trembling, shaking the silver platter upon which lay the Tsar’s breakfast. “It’s alright”. The Tsar chuckled, motioning at his table. As the bondservant bent over to put the platter on the table, Aleksey noticed bruising on the girl’s neck. “Your neck…” he began. Immediately a look of deep shame came over her countenance, her eyes welling up almost immediately. The young lady scurried out of the Tsar’s bedroom. The Tsar stood there for a while, before striding over to the door, closing and locking it. He walked over to his window. The guard with the blue-grey eyes wasn’t there anymore. He had been replaced by some other Cossack, this one with dark hair and eyes. The Tsar knew that he knew little, but perhaps that was better than knowing what he did not know? Perhaps ignorance was bliss, but if this was bliss, what Hell must lie outside? A flicker of disdain went across the Tsar’s face as he grew irritated with himself. What pointless questions, he thought. The Tsar abruptly pulled the curtains closed, and sat down for his breakfast.

Victor Vasnetsov's 1898 painting 'Bogatyrs' (Богатыря), now stored in Tsar Aleksey's bedchambers inside the Bosphoran Palace in Tsargrad​

===

So, yet another timeline you'll probably never finish. Nice. What's this one on?

Basically, it's a surviving Imperial Russia timeline. But no, it's not one of those "alt-RCW" timelines. The divergence is earlier.

'Spengler's Prophecy'? What's that supposed to mean?

So basically, it's a reference to Spengler's magnum opus "Decline of the West". Whilst he has some dubious logic about quite a few things, Spengler also has some interesting theories. The most fascinating of these in my mind was the idea that the Western (or 'Faustian') civilisation was doomed to collapse as a result of its materialism (this is seen as the price for its technical and technological advancement), which would be eclipsed by a rising Russian (or 'Dostoevskyan') civilisation that would be distinct from the West.

I considered this, and in my view it wasn't an unreasonable prediction for Spengler, given the time period in which he was writing. As with any broad stroke theory like his, there are going to be quite a lot of inaccuracies. No-one gets everything right. But in my mind, the Bolsheviks, at least to a degree, were a 'westernising' influence. What if they never took power? How will Russia's reactionary forces (the aristocracy, the monarchy, the church) react to the modernisation of an increasingly industrial Russia? This timeline is supposed to look at one possible outcome of this. It's not a 'Russia-wank' in the sense of a better outcome for Russia. Russia may well be more powerful, at least at times in this TL, but it is not necessarily a better place to live. But I don't want to give too much away. Stay tuned.

A Note on Transliteration:

For Russian words and names, I will generally romanise the Russian Cyrillic alphabet directly where possible. For instance, Алексей will be rendered "Aleksey", rather than "Alexei". Part of this is my own taste, part of this is because my Russian flatmate hates when I use the latter. A similar principle will apply to certain place names. For instance, Дальний (Dalian in China) will be referred to as Dal'niy rather than the "Dalny" romanisation more common in English sources. However, well-known cities such as Port Arthur, Tsaritsyn and the like may be referred to either in accordance with their more common romanisation if I feel like it. Tl;dr -> the form transliteration takes is at my discretion.

 

[BeardedHoplite]

Very interesting. Watching with interest

 

[karatachi]

More please!

 

[TheBerlinguer]

Question: is Stars and Sickles going to be one of those "timeline(s) you'll probably never finish"? I've just begun reading it and now I wonder if this new thread of yours means that you're going to focus exclusively on something completely different.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

Very interesting. Watching with interest

Yay! An audience!

More please!

It's coming, don't worry!

Question: is Stars and Sickles going to be one of those "timeline(s) you'll probably never finish"? I've just begun reading it and now I wonder if this new thread of yours means that you're going to focus exclusively on something completely different.

No, Stars and Sickles is my first and favourite child. It's my baby, I'm not abandoning it. I've been pretty busy recently and have had to get through a bunch of research before my next post for Stars and Sickles, so in the meantime I thought I'd post this because this idea has been banging around in my head for at least a year now and I wanted to explore it. My updates on Stars and Sickles have always been inconsistent in terms of timing, but don't worry, you won't have to wait too long for an update on that.

 

[Augenis]

You know, it's weird to read this text when you are already familiar with Russian language, because sometimes stuff basically repeats, like "tales tales of his youth"

I'll be watching this to see where you're going to try to take this.

 

[AlexG]

Keenly watching this!

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

You know, it's weird to read this text when you are already familiar with Russian language, because sometimes stuff basically repeats, like "tales tales of his youth"

I'll be watching this to see where you're going to try to take this.

Yeah inevitably there will be some occasions like that when putting English and other language words or phrases together. I notice that a lot in references to Chinese. "Nanshan Mountain" for instance would literally translate to "South mountain mountain".

 

[ShortsBelfast]

Fascinating. I will be interested to see where the eclipsed forces of OTL take TTL's Russia. And the role of the civil and military bureaucracies. And the rising capitalist and banking classes>
"Reactionary" is essentially a term of political opprobrium that should be used with great caution. In practice, most so-called "reactionaries" don't want the status quo - "no change -keep things just as they are" - they want fairly radical change (even when they themselves designate it a restoration of the glories of the past). Just change that is in directions antithetical to the "progressive" (a term of political congratulation that should also be used with great caution) view of where things ought to be going

 

[General Ripper]

Interesting. It will be interesting to see the POD here.

 

[Jack Hawksmoor]

You had me at the title, then you had me again at the concept, then you had me again at Tsargrad, then you had me again after I finished the prologue and I now feel very used and very interested.

 

[Hrvatskiwi]

The destruction of Russian destroyers by Japanese destroyers at Port Arthur​

The night was silent, with the sole exception of the waters of the Yellow Sea, which lapped gently at the steel hulls of the four Japanese destroyers. The ships waded slowly through the cold waters, enveloped in the dark twilight of those strange hours that follow midnight. The low howl of the cold winds beckoned the Japanese sailors into the harbour. Ittōsuihei (Seaman first class) Yamashiro Hiroshi*[1] treated the sea's song with suspicion. He had met many women throughout his years who had whispered sweet nothings in his ear, and at every port he received more and more reason not to trust them. The sweet lullaby of the sea was no different, for he knew no crueler nor more fickle mistress. Having served in the Sino-Japanese War ten years earlier, Yamashiro had never seen defeat, but he still knew much of death. He had seen men fall overboard, never to be recovered. He hoped those comrades had drowned peacefully. Better that than torn apart by the ravenous sharks which lay in the depths. He hoped never to fall victim himself to one of those finned jackals. Yamashiro had never really felt that there was all that much glory in death. He appreciated the tenacious ethos of 'no surrender' that had been drilled into him and his peers in the Imperial Japanese Navy, but he couldn't help but feel like sometimes too many risks were taken, almost courting death. He could not shake that feeling about this conflict.

Whilst tension between Japan and Russia had been building for years, primarily in the form of political disputes over influence in Korea and Manchuria, this war was entirely at Japan's choosing. Sure, Yamashiro was sympathetic to the idea that Japan needed to control Korea and, ideally, Manchuria too, fitting for a rising great power, but this attack seemed too risky. Of ten destroyers sent on this mission, only four were here. The strike force had encountered patrolling Russian destroyers and tried taking evasive action. Two of the other Japanese destroyers had collided and fell behind, whilst the rest had scattered. It was only a matter of time before the Russians would sound the alarm. The destroyers and torpedo boats had been sent in in the first place because his superior, kaigun-taishō (Full-Admiral) Tōgō Heihachirō, refused to risk his capital ships after receiving intelligence that the shore batteries would be on high alert. Nevertheless, they were here now, and it was time. Despite some of their trepidations, all the Japanese sailors and officers on board knew that their ultimate purpose was to perform their duty, for Emperor and for Japan. At 0028 hours, the four Japanese destroyers commenced the attack.

=

On the morning of 9th February 1904, a fleet of Japanese destroyers and torpedo boats attacked the Russian Far Eastern Fleet in a surprise attack on Port Arthur. The first four destroyers to arrive at the seen fired upon the Russian battleship Retzivan and the protected cruiser Pallada. The other six destroyers soon arrived on the seen and proceeded to fire upon the ships sitting at port. As the Japanese warships had begun their attack, the guests gathered at the birthday party of the wife of Vitse-Admiral Oskar Viktorovich Stark (the commander of the Port Arthur naval base) on the battleship Petropavlovsk mistook the exploding torpedoes for shells fired in the lady's honour. The Russian response was as disordered as one might expect. The naval batteries were not prepared for the attack, and could do little in response to the attacks. Nevertheless, the Russians benefited from a relatively ineffective Japanese attack. The straggling destroyers had arrived too late to benefit from the element of surprise, and poor coordination between the Japanese ships led them to attack individually, rather than as a group. Many of the Japanese torpedoes were duds, whilst more were caught in the extensive barriers of torpedo nets set up around the naval base. After the destroyer Oboro made the last attack at 0200, only 3 of the 16 torpedoes fired during the attack on Port Arthur had both hit their target and detonated. Nevertheless, the success of the 3 effective hits was surprising: The Retzivan and Pallada were both disabled, as was the Tsesarevich, then the most advanced battleship in the Russian fleet. Repair of these ships would take months.

At 0800, Tōgō sent his subordinate, Kaigun-chūshō (Vice Admiral) Dewa Shigetō, with four cruisers on a reconnaissance mission to assess the damage inflicted on the Russian fleet. Dewa reported back that the Russian fleet appeared to have been paralyzed, and that it would be an opportune moment for a follow-up attack to completely decimate the Russian warships. Although Tōgō preferred to draw the Russian ships beyond the protection of the shore batteries, in this situation he saw the risk as being justified by the possibility of completely crippling the Russian Far Eastern Fleet. On approach, the Japanese came into contact with the Russian cruiser Boyarin, which was on patrol. Firing at the Japanese flagship Mikasa at extreme range, Boyarin fled into the harbour. At midday, at a range of 5 miles, the two fleets entered into combat. The accuracy of both fleets' gunnery was relatively poor, although the Japanese managed to inflict significant damage on the Russian battleships Petropavlovsk and Poltava, as well as the cruisers Novik, Diana and Askold. Within the first 5 minutes of the battle, the Russians had managed to destroy the aft bridge of the Mikasa with a ricocheting shell, killing the chief engineer, flag lieutenant and numerous other personnel. It had become painfully clear that the Japanese had wandered into a trap. The battleships had steamed up and were moving to concentrate fire on the Japanese warships. At 1220, Tōgō gave orders for the fleet to reverse course.

=

Under usual circumstances, the waters around Port Arthur, glimmering in the midday sun, would look beautiful. The sea appeared as the belly of a great fish, its scale shimmering green and blue. But the attention of the men that day was on the roar of the guns, and on the hulking grey warships that fired them. Admiral Tōgō had ordered a risky turn to escape the trap set for the Japanese by the Russian Vice-Admiral Stark. The six battleships of the Japanese fleet, the Hatsuse, Shikishima, Asahi, Fuji, Yashima, and the flagship Mikasa, had to reverse their course to escape the jaws of death, whose breath could be seen in the gun-smoke emanating from the barrels of the Russian shore batteries. In doing so, they had to expose their sides, providing a larger target for both the batteries and the enemy warships. The Japanese battleships were pummeled by 7 hits, only the Yashima escaped any damage, but the Asahi took a catastrophic hit to the magazine, which exploded. The ship took in water slowly, however, and most of the 773 crewmen survived. The 68 men lost were all killed in the initial hit and subsequent explosion[2]. The Asahi sank on the way back to Japan, although this knowledge wouldn't be known to the Russians until much later. The battleships were followed by the Japanese cruisers, who also took a number of hits. The armoured cruiser Iwate was hit in the rudder, disabled and fell victim to intense concentrated gunfire, resulting in the loss of the Iwate after being struck by torpedoes fired from the Novik. Some historians believe that the devastating concentration of fire on the paralysed Iwate allowed some of the other cruisers to escape virtually unscathed. On their part, the Japanese managed to land 5 hits on the Russian ships, but these largely did superficial damage. This is largely believed to have been the result of Tōgō's decision to split his fire, utilising the main 12-inch armament of his battleships on the shore batteries, rather than on the Russian warships, which were targeted only by the weaker secondary armaments. The rest of the Japanese ships managed to escape to fight another day. Both sides took around 150 casualties altogether in the Battle of Port Arthur, with the Japanese permanently losing one battleship and an armoured cruiser. 3 of the Russian warships were put out of action temporarily, but would be repaired months later.

Meanwhile, at Chemulpo Bay in Korea, the crew of the Russian cruiser Varyag valiantly attempted to fight off a force of 6 Japanese cruisers, 1 aviso and 8 torpedo boats, assisted only by a single antiquated gunboat, the Korietz. Taking heavy damage, the Varyag was scuttled, with the crew returned home by the warships of neutral nations based at Chemulpo Bay, such as the Italians, who cheered the Russians on as they sailed against the Japanese.

A formal declaration of war was made on 10th February, the day after the Japanese sneak attack on Port Arthur. On the 11th, the Russian minelayer Yenisei began to mine the entrance to the port[3]. On 14th February, the Japanese fleet set sail after a short rest in Sasebo, blockading Port Arthur. An attempt to seal the Russian fleet inside Port Arthur by scuttling five transport ships outside the harbour entrance was thwarted by the Retzivan, which was still grounded on the outside of the harbour, and fired upon the Japanese, sinking some of the transports in places where they could do no harm.

Despite the loss of the Iwate, Vice-Admiral Stark was unfairly perceived as being responsible for a major defeat by the Russian press. As a result, he was replaced by Vice-Admiral Stepan Osipovich Makarov, who assumed command on 8th March. Makarov pursued an active strategy, keeping the Russian fleet constantly on the move and prepared for battle. He kept the fleet in order of battle even inside the harbour, and on numerous occasions forced the Japanese fleet to retreat from harrying actions. On 13th April, Makarov set sail with his flagship Petropavlovsk, supported by the battleships Poltava, Sevastopol, Pobeda and Peresvet; as well as the cruisers Askold, Diana and Novik, to support Russian destroyers engaged by their Japanese counterparts. On the return, the Diana struck three mines and was sunk, taking almost its entire crew with it[4].

Russian battleships (foreground) in combat with Japanese battleships (background)​

===
[1] He is a fictional character. All fictional characters will be marked with an asterisk during their first appearance, for ease of identification. Most of these characters are inserted for narrative purposes.
[2] The Asahi was not hit in the OTL Battle of Port Arthur. Nor were any of the Japanese cruisers sunk in the Battle, historically.
[3] IOTL one of the mines brushed the rudder of the Yenisei, detonating and sinking the ship, along with it most of the crew and the maps noting the sites mined. ITTL the Yenisei does not experience this accident.
[4] IOTL the Petropavlovsk was sunk, killing Makarov, an unusually-aggressive admiral and a far more effective one than any of his historical successors.