Surviving Gran Colombia

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

Is there any way that Gran Colombia could survive (for some time, if not indefinitely)?

Suppose Bolivar died earlier, could Francisco de Paula Santander have managed to keep a federalist, constitutionalist nation together, or would it all have fallen apart anyway?

Could compromises at the 1828 constitutional assembly, the Convention of Ocaña, have held the country together (with or without Bolivar)?

 

[Nugax]

Have José Antonio Páez die (possibly in battle), and it'll probably delay things with the Venezuelans not having someone to rally their feelings of being slighted by the central government. Its hard to say which of a federalist or centralist arrangement would have caused the break up faster though . I think the best set up would be some external threat to hold the country together long enough for better roads between Bogotá and Caracas to be built and for people to grow more used to the idea of Gran Colombia...

 

[Shawn Endresen]

I don't think Santander is your man; he was too much of a moralist, his contemporaries were afraid of a new Inquisition under him. Paez could keep things together until at least the late 1840s/early 1850s; Venezuela sees Colombia becoming relatively wealthy and urbanized while they have stayed rural and poor, and concludes that they have been abused by a nefarious government, when in fact it's just the logical result of their respective natural resources and education systems. But Columbia can't keep Venezuela by force of arms when the latter decides to leave. Ecuador doesn't seem to ever need independence to me; it appears to have been the brainchild of Flores, who would rather be sovereign dictator over a small, undeveloped place than an important and valued citizen of a large nation. Neutralize Flores and Ecuador never leaves.