The Empire Strikes Back: A Smarter Axis TL

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Snowstalker

On January 30, 1933, Adolf Hitler was appointed to be the Chancellor of Germany. After the German president Paul von Hindenburg died in 1934, Hitler gained absolute power over Germany. Afraid of a second brutal war in Europe, Britain and France adopted a policy of appeasement towards Germany, allowing it to reoccupy the Rhineland and the Saar, as well as annexing Austria and the German-speaking portions of Czechoslovakia known as the Sudetenland. Germany then eyed the city-state of Danzig, separated from Germany after the First World War. Not only was it an important port city, but 95 of its population was ethnically German. On May 30, 1939, Arthur Greiser unilaterally declared that the Free City of Danzig would be unified with Germany immediately. After German troops moved into the city the next day, Poland gave the German government an ultimatum: get out of Danzig in 72 hours or face war. Adolf Hitler, confident that Germany could win a war with Poland, ordered all units to stand back. The ultimatum came and went, and on June 3, 1939, Poland declared war on Germany.

BTW, this is a TL where Germany doesn't occupy the rest of Czechoslovakia. Butterflies also lead to Germany not demanding Klaipeda from Lithuania.

Europe 11-2-1938.PNG
 

Snowstalker

The German-Polish war gave Hitler an opportunity to test his style of warfare-the blitzkrieg. The idea was that it would phase out the cold, dark trenches, and make warfare fast-paced. According to Hitler, the war would be over within weeks, and all of Poland would be in German hands. However, it would be the Poles who made the first move. On June 5, 1939, Polish forces moved into Danzig. Despite early success, they were driven back by June 11. Meanwhile, German forces made a counterattack, invading Poland from Silesia, Pomerania, and East Prussia. By June 20, German forces from Pomerania and East Prussia linked up, landlocking Poland.

As annexing Poland, which Germany was planning after the war, would create a common border with Germany's worst enemy, the Soviet Union, Hitler decided that he wanted Stalin off his back, at least for a while. On June 22, German and Soviet diplomats met to discuss a nonaggression treaty. In a secret clause of the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact, named after the Soviet and German foreign ministers, Eastern Europe was divided into Soviet and German spheres of influence. Western Poland, the area that was part of the German Empire until after WWI, would be annexed outright by Germany, while the Soviet Union would occupy Eastern Poland, including areas the Russians lost after the First World War. Central Poland, including Warsaw, would become a German protectorate, to be fully annexed into Germany later on.

June 22:

Europe 11-2-1938.PNG
 

mikegold

Hm. Good POD, one I've thought a fair bit about.

Thoughts: With no occupation of Prague or Memel, I don't think Italy will annex Albania. They'll maintain or maybe even deepen it's client status, instead.

Actually - if you still want Italy to annex Albania, it should happen now, while the Polish war is ongoing.

Secondly: Hacha is going to be very dependent on Hitler. Something like a third of German tanks IOTL at this time were formerly Czech; a good portion of these can be extorted in an unfair "trade" from his government.

Also, Hungary will want another slice of Slovakia at some point. Maybe Hitler has promised Hungary a total division of the state to Horthy at some time in the future (Hungarian control of all of Slovakia as well as Ruthenia - after all, they were only Slavs).

Lithuania might be persuaded to jump in on the German side for Vilnius once its clear there won't be a wider war. They might even be willing to trade it for Memel if the appropriate pressure is applied.

So do the secret protocols of the M-R pact not cover the Baltic, Finland, and Romania TTL?

That's all I've got for now. Good POD and I'm interested to see where you take it.
 

mikegold

Oh, BTW: the UK, France and the USSR (post M-R) will actually condemn Polish aggression! Though, there will be disappointment in the West when Poland is wholly dismembered, it won't reach the levels it did OTL with the unjustified occupation of Prague.

Speaking of Prague. The Czech political scene is going to be a mess during the Polish war. Czechs, Jews, and Roma will strongly support Poland; Germans and Hungarians will endorse Germany. (Ruthenians may not care much and Slovaks will be split). Since Germans and Hungarians are clearly the weaker party, demographically, and there will certainly be riots and such, I wonder if those communities might not appeal to Berlin and Budapest for protection? Nothing will happen just now, of course, but it could be saved as the beginnings of a casus belli for later.
 
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Snowstalker

You have a point about Albania, though it's too late now. Well, maybe not, but I'm too lazy to edit it.

Czechoslovakia will play a role later on, as will Hungary, but for now they're just sitting around.

The secret protocols of the MR Pact do cover the Baltic states, Romania, and Finland, which I bunched in by saying that Eastern Europe would be divided between Germany and the USSR.

Lithuania will indirectly back the Germans due to a mutual hatred of the Poles, though they'll stick to the sidelines with fighting.
 

Snowstalker

The Polish declaration of war was met with almost universal condemnation. Though Britain and France did little more than condemn Poland and call for a ceasefire, Stalin's reaction was different. On June 25, 1939, the Soviet Union declared war on Poland. Almost immediately, the Red Army poured into eastern Poland. Unable to fight a war on two fronts, Poland surrendered on July 7, 1939. As planned, Soviet-occupied Poland was split between Belarus and Ukraine, while Germany annexed Western Poland and made the rest of its occupied portion of Poland a protectorate. Though the complete partition of Poland was met with iffy reactions from Britain and France, not much was said. Poland, after all, was the aggressor, even if Germany's reaction was somewhat extreme.

Meanwhile, Italy, now holding Albania as a protectorate, was already eying its next target...

Europe 11-2-1938.PNG
 

mikegold

Whoa - is that west of the OTL partition line, or do my eyes deceive me? So (nearly all-Jewish) Bialystok would be Belorussian... and you have something close to a Yiddish speaking majority in the SSR (certainly among the urban pop). Unfortunately, that won't lost long enough to have interesting effects.

Franco-British population is more than iffy, they'll implore Germany to restore some kind of independent Polish state and start to become concerned about German expansionism. Again, not as much so as after Prague; but it's an even bet whether the next victim of German aggression gets an Allied guarantee. Unless, of course, it's the USSR - the Allies would be perfectly content to watch those two powers bleed each other dry.

Of course, there will be those like Churchill, Blum and Litvinov who supported Poland from the beginning, and their following will increase.

Incidentally, Hitler has two real options now: Strike the USSR and hope for peace in the West, or preemptively attach the Western powers and secure that flank, perhaps in a grand alliance with the USSR as well as Italy and Japan. Czechoslovakia can be mopped up at leisure now or later without recourse to war.

But if I read your hints correctly, events may be taken out of Hitler's hands by an Italian assault on Yugoslavia or Greece: probably Yugoslavia, given the ready availability of Hungary and Bulgaria as allies and the lesser allied commitment as compared to Greece. Musso may even offer Northern Epiros to Greece to ensure friendly neutrality; Albania will be compensated amply with Kosovo, western Macedonia, and perhaps Shkadar.

Big q then is, how do Britain and France respond? The disappearance of Poland and the German-Soviet rapprochement have severely disrupted the balance of power and, to an extent, discredited the policy of appeasement.

On the other hand, declaring on Italy will certainly bring Germany in, and no one wants another war and so forth. And after all, the fate of Poland is Germany's fault, not Italy's (though this disregards the fates of Ethiopia and Albania). Finally, a smart Italy will start the war by prompting a Ustasha revolt in Croatia. This gives Italy a seemingly plausible casus belli.

So if you want Italy to get away with Yugoslavia before the Big One, it's plausible; but so is starting the war over that crisis.
 

mikegold

Another thought - when the Axis get around to dividing Czechoslovakia, the USSR may claim Ruthenia. There will have to be a quid pro quo somehwere, though. Bukovina perhaps, or Lithuania.
 

Snowstalker

My mouth is shut about Mussolini's next move, but you're warm.

As for Bialystok, it is indeed Belorussian, and the partition line is indeed further west than OTL. After all, it gives Hitler fewer Jews to worry about, at least for now.
 

Snowstalker

The seemingly random and unprovoked invasion and occupation of Lithuania by Germany on August 16, 1939, provoked rage from Britain and France. Appeasement had come to an end. British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain declared that the British government would declare war on Germany if it attacked even one more country. The Soviet Union had a different reaction. Fearing that Germany would move on to conquer all 3 Baltic states instead of just Lithuania, which was the only one ceded to Germany in the M-R Pact, Stalin ordered the sudden invasion of Latvia and Estonia. Both were occupied and annexed as the Latvian SSR and the Estonian SSR. Meanwhile, the Klaipeda region of Lithuania was directly annexed into Germany, while the rest of the country was made into a protectorate, much like what Poland already was.

In Rome, Mussolini held a conference with the leaders of Bulgaria and Hungary on August 22. What was discussed was kept a secret, but their plans would soon be revealed.

Europe 11-2-1938.PNG
 
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mikegold

Ah, the original M-R line. For all that people talk about it, IDK if I've ever seen it done. As we all know, this leaves the Wehrmacht way closer to Moscow at the starting gate.

BTW, Hitler will claim he's protecting the Memelland German minority. No one but Hitler's dupes (who are depressingly numerous) will buy it, of course.

The UK and France may be jumpy now not just at Germany, but at all aggressors - Italy, Russia, even Japan. Russia especially, I wonder if you'll have the Baku operation go through once the Winter War (or alternately, something similar against Romania) gets going. I tend to doubt it, "USSR in Axis" is not where I think you're going with a TL about a smarter Axis. But I will say, a greater chunk of Poland held by the USSR, a less subtle seizure of Latvia/Estonia, and the lack (so far) of war in the West will have the USSR on thinner ice than you've depicted. Decision makers in London and France will now be seriously uncertain as to which evil is greater.

Still, were I Musso I'd watch my step just now. He might get away with Yugo; but there will be immense pressures short of war brought to bear.

May we presume that Nomonhan occurs on schedule?
 
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AlexG

AlexG

Banned
If it isnt too much to ask but could you cut the size of the map by at least half the large size makes it difficult to read the text.
 

Deleted member 1487

I highly doubt the Germans would get away with chopping up Poland. Even without the guarantee to Poland, total dismemberment and de facto annexation means war. The Polish reaction would not justify the German-Soviet invasions that ended in Poland dissolving, regardless if Poland 'started' it. By Germany occupying Danzig, they've violated the Munich agreement where Hitler stated no more demands or annexations. Germany would likely have to deal with Poland's ultimatum being backed up by the West.
 

Snowstalker

wiking said:
I highly doubt the Germans would get away with chopping up Poland. Even without the guarantee to Poland, total dismemberment and de facto annexation means war. The Polish reaction would not justify the German-Soviet invasions that ended in Poland dissolving, regardless if Poland 'started' it. By Germany occupying Danzig, they've violated the Munich agreement where Hitler stated no more demands or annexations. Germany would likely have to deal with Poland's ultimatum being backed up by the West.
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Except it was Greiser who declared the union with Germany. Plus, this was at least slightly more justified than the invasion of Czechoslovakia, and so the Allies were angered but not as much as in OTL. After Lithuania was pummeled, the French and British had enough; one more invasion and it's war.
 

Deleted member 1487

Snowstalker said:
Except it was Greiser who declared the union with Germany. Plus, this was at least slightly more justified than the invasion of Czechoslovakia, and so the Allies were angered but not as much as in OTL. After Lithuania was pummeled, the French and British had enough; one more invasion and it's war.
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Except that regardless of Polish actions, Germany cannot be accepted, because it would demonstrate Western weakness in the face of dictatorships. For Real politik reasons, the destruction of Poland as an independent state cannot be tolerated without war. Poland is not Czechoslovakia and really is the only remaining ally France has in Eastern Europe. If Germany were to say topple the Polish dictatorship and reinstall an independent democratic rump state after taking the Polish corridor, it might be barely tolerable, especially after the Soviets invade. But invading Lithuania thereafter? No, that's instant war after anything with Poland.

Honestly, what would probably happen is Germany is given an ultimatum after invading Poland, as the violated the Munich agreements by accepting Greiser's declaration. It would be seen as Germany supporting rebels. Now, France and Britain would tell Poland to back down and let the free state go, but if the do as you say here, after germany wins and doesn't pull back, then the West will issue their ultimatum: start to pull out of Poland in x days or face war.
 
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