If Germany isn’t careful it could soon face revolution anyway. Very realistic tbh, the Imperial German government has already lost a lot of support.
To the Victor, Go the Spoils (Redux): A Plausible Central Powers Victory
- Thread starter TheReformer
- Start date
A few things to consider:
Yeah the Hungarians did not want to absorb any more Slavs. However the largest copper mine in Europe at that time was Bor inside Serbia but IIRC not too far from the prewar border. The Central Powers were chronically short on copper the whole war so I can imagine Berlin "informing" Vienna that "we must have that mine"
When King Albert was indulging in secret negotiations with Germany during the war one of the things that the German negotiators insisted on was that Belgium become a German ally in perpetuity.
Lastly I can see Germany wanting some border adjustment in the Vosges. For instance complete control of the Col de La Schlucht.
Yeah the Hungarians did not want to absorb any more Slavs. However the largest copper mine in Europe at that time was Bor inside Serbia but IIRC not too far from the prewar border. The Central Powers were chronically short on copper the whole war so I can imagine Berlin "informing" Vienna that "we must have that mine"
When King Albert was indulging in secret negotiations with Germany during the war one of the things that the German negotiators insisted on was that Belgium become a German ally in perpetuity.
Lastly I can see Germany wanting some border adjustment in the Vosges. For instance complete control of the Col de La Schlucht.
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Thanks for making note of the first one there - I had overlooked Bor but shall amend the outcome of the negotiations accordingly. Much obliged!
Oh well
These politicians have not asked Chief of Naval Staff Reinhard Sheer and High Seas Fleet Commander Franz von Hipper for their opinion haven't they?
Oh, they have most likely. It's just not lining up with what they want to hear.
Monitor
Donor
The food situation in Germany might be in the way to improve, don’t forget about Ukraine…
That was at that time (and today) one of the biggest food exporters in the world, and I think Brest Litowsk went through as expected already…
So yeah, the situation is desperate, and bad, but the Germans might think that if they can keep the situation stable until the next harvest, maybe they can keep it stable significantly longer. So their clock might be a lot longer than most might expect…
(There is a reason why they pushed that much to get that territory - they focused on it, because it’s the food producing territory in Europe.)
EDIT: The big improvements are still a year away, though. More or less exactly. And there where OTL issues…
That was at that time (and today) one of the biggest food exporters in the world, and I think Brest Litowsk went through as expected already…
So yeah, the situation is desperate, and bad, but the Germans might think that if they can keep the situation stable until the next harvest, maybe they can keep it stable significantly longer. So their clock might be a lot longer than most might expect…
(There is a reason why they pushed that much to get that territory - they focused on it, because it’s the food producing territory in Europe.)
EDIT: The big improvements are still a year away, though. More or less exactly. And there where OTL issues…
They were convinced they could do so in real life, they have nothing to lose and everything to gain. A gamble could pay off if well executed, and if they are defeated they will still be in an identical geopolitical situation. Thus, if anything, why wouldn't they?
Ah yes, I forgot this was not mentioned - yes it did as per OTL.
I think the “victorious” brand is something to lose in this TL at this time. Plus, the Kaiser like his ships and the OTL desperation is not there.
Rattenfänger von Memphis
Donor
I greatly appreciate your type of attention to such minutiae. Besides learning several details in TTL, like some of these examples in the above quote, it shows just how meticulous your research has had to have been. Keep up the good work, I am thoroughly enjoying the alternative history you are serving up.TheReformer said:
Given the Central Powers just defeated Russia, France, the United States, Italy, Greece, Serbia, Montenegro and Albania - I fail to see how one could not call it a Central Powers victory. The caveat is it is in 1918, so it isn't a landslide - which in my view is why the late win is interesting.
Germany's choice is between winning a minor victory, or making an effort to try and win a revolutionary one. If she doesn't send out the fleet, she will still be in an identical position against Britain post war in terms of naval strength, and she will still be forced to follow what Britain dictates or risk continued war that would eventually bankrupt her. If she sends out the fleet and loses, she will suffer no greater political consequence to if she did not. If she send out the fleet and wins though - then she can demand whatever she wishes of France and become master of the continent. The Kaiser may be cautious, but the OHL were certainly not.
Monitor
Donor
Considering that Britain is quite literally bankrupt, while even a minor victory would allow Germany to offload a lot of its economical issues on the French if they are smart…
Also, round 2 would require less of an army for the Germans, meaning more focus on the fleet. And Germany is exhausted - the only way I see them sending out the fleet in a desperate attempt is, if they have at least parity in capital ships, which they don’t. The fleet didn’t do its job, in some ways - mostly because it succeded to well, admittedly (it was intended to prevent a close blockade, and the British did the hellishly illegal thing by international law at the time of a distant blockade, which the Germans just didn’t compute possible.
While Germany is exhausted, Great Britain is broken without the reparations from Germany. While I am not sure how aware the Germans are of the economic black hole the British are in, it just can’t afford the necessary fleet for round 2… Regardless of how it goes, as long as it doesn’t get the reparations.
And honestly, Germany had already written off a great victory at that point in time - and the fleet would refuse anyways, the situation isn’t any different in a major way from the one that lead to the slight issue in Kiel. In fact it’s worse - this isn’t a last desperate attempt at saving something, proving the honor of the Empire, and maybe even breaking the blockade with a lot of luck, preventing the flow of reinforcements, or at least slowing it down, which you could see that as.
No, it’s just: we are in a good position, so let’s go commit suicide in the hopes that maybe, just maybe we can get a slightly better situation…
I can’t see the German fleet sallying out. I can, however, see the Germans threatening to do that. Or at least seemingly preparing to do so - especially because they likely are already beginning to prepare downsizing of the army and shifting resources to the fleet as a threatening gesture - if you don’t accept at least defeat with little further consequences, we could continue, with our entire industrial output being sent to our fleet. No chance in hell of that having a big effect before the end of the decade, but still…
Also it makes for great propaganda videos: victorious in the field, we prepare to be victorious on the sea. Also, no one even think of leaving the protected anchorages!
Having painstakingly spent weeks reading into post war finances of Britain (which was low key interesting, albeit miserable) I'd say Britian isn't bankrupt. Obviously there is a lot of economic stuff relating to the war that I'll discuss in later updates, but the Empire isnt completely financially ruined to a degree that they wouldn't be able to sustain their fleet - at least not immediately.
This is an entirely fair point, and at the end of the day that is basically what the plan is. The Hochseeflotte had instituted some reforms and built some new ships, and I'm confident from my research that they would genuinely feel a win might be possible, but yes I suspect the general consensus would be that the battle would likely be a defeat.
On the attitudes of the sailors, I am genuinely of two minds - and I really do flip back and forth on it. There are a few points in my writing where imo the subject could make literally either decision, or an outcome could go either way. On the one hand, I could imagine the sailors agreeing with your analysis there and basically concluding 'well, this is a stupid idea' and not going into battle. On the other, the prospect of perhaps finally finishing off the war for the Empire in a glorious attempt to secure total victory might motivate them.
I think the interesting thing really is that in both scenarios Germany will be forced to reconcile a peace with Britain either way. If the fleet went out and lost, they would have to accept Britain is here to stay and agree to a more limited peace in the west. Still a victory, but a less dramatic one. If the fleet mutinied, then the same would occur - unless of course the fleet eeked out a narrow win in the previous scenario.
I think odds are you are probably right, the German fleet probably would not sally out in an uber-realistic scenario, whereas my original plan had been a fleet battle would take place.
I'll consider the two and weigh it up. As a point of curiosity - who here wants to see the battle take place, and who thinks it's too implausible? I'm not gunna make my decision based on that, but Im just curious about the consensus!
OHL doesn't control in control of the Navy. The High Seas Fleet and it's Admirals might raise steam and leave port but refuse battle due to 'unfavorable circumstances' last minute and turn home before actually engaging the Grand Fleet.
The Germans Admirals were never in favor of an surface battle with an unwhittled Grand Fleet.
RamscoopRaider
Donor
Well there is the possibility they might try a variant of the original plan for Jutland. Namely sail out with the HSF, make a lot of noise and run for port the second they hear about the Grand Fleet, with the goal of getting the Grand Fleet to hopefully sortie into a wolfpack, minefield or both. If done right that's fairly low risk, save for the fact British signint is liable to get wind of any sortie before it happens and KM command does not know this
Admittedly I did write a TL where the HSF did make a grand sortie against the RN near the end of the war, but they were losing and it was basically a hail mary to cause dissent among the US and UK by changing the naval balance of power
I'd like to see it take place, you'd probably do it better than I did
One supposes to be plausible you could have the HSF try a low risk maneuver, to bait the Grand Fleet into running into U-Boats/minefields, with no intention of actually fighting ship to ship, only for the British to have reacted far faster than they thought possible due to British sigint and thus catch them at sea
Anyways @TheReformer your TL is pretty good, much better quality than the WWI part of my TL
Fear not I'm aware the OHL doesnt control the Navy - it does however have a pretty universal say in the direction of the war, and I could see them pressing for an attack.
As with the previous response, I'll consider how to handle it.