What happens to Xinjiang, Mongolia, and Manchuria in event of the Qing failing to conquer China

SealTheRealDeal

SealTheRealDeal

Let's say the Qing/Later Jin are defeated by one of the Chinese factions during the fall of the Ming Dynasty (Shun, Xi, Southern Ming), and we'll say it's a very costly defeat with multiple banner armies wiped out entirely. What is the likely outcome for the areas imediately north of China? Are Qing still strong enough to consolidate their hold on the regions north of China? Alternately may Dzungars under Galdan be able to best the weakened Qing? How likely is it for whoever eventually wins in China to replicate the northward and eastward expansion of the Qing? Might the Russians be able move their frontier far further south than iOTL? Some combination of these?
 
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Umbric Man

Umbric Man

I'd imagine China, no matter who controls it, will take control of the Hetao Plain and preferably entire Ordos Loop, and Liaoning province, for both security and ethnocultural purposes since they're beneath the Great Wall and traditionally ethnoculturally Chinese since antiquity. People don't tend to realize that since the Manchus conquered and formally integrated Liaoning before just taking the entire damn Empire and Mongol or other steppe nations historically sweeping into the Ordos/Hetao in times of waning Chinese power.
 
elerosse

elerosse

Depends on which dynasty manages to gain the Mandate of Heaven. I would imagine Southern Ming to be less interested in borders beyond Ming border 1644, Xi is a wild card as Zhang Xianzhong is a great opportunist. If he senses expansion opportunity can benefit his regn, he would certainly look to expand.

Now Shun on the other hand is another story. Li Zicheng has his origin in Shaanxi, most of his men came from the Northwestern China, they have a special love for Xian and all that is Tang. Given the importance of Xian, and them wanna cosplay Tang, I am most sure they would put alot of efforts to secure their western frontier, bringing them into a conquest path towards Xinjiang. How far they coulve reach is another story
 
GameBawesome

GameBawesome

Well, I'd say that the Northern Yuan Dynasty would further disintegrate, Manchuria would probably be more stable, and the Dzungars are going to be a regional power in Central Asia... Until Russia comes knocking East.

Besides that, depending on what happens with China, and which Dynasty comes into power, that either being Shun or a Restored Ming.
 
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