WI Constituant Assembly in spring 1917

Given all the divisions between Social Revolutionaries, Mensheviks and cadets as well as the impracticality of the dual rule, I really wonder why the left in the provisional government didn't just sideline the cadets by leaning more on the soviets and calling in an earlier constituant assembly, say in May or June 1917.
And even with the cadets, i don't know why they preferred multiplying Chaos over an earlier election in which their chances were less bad.

So, let's assume the provisional government takes the adjective in their name seriously and a Constituant Assembly for Russia is elected in late May 1917.

What would follow?
Who is elected? What happens to the war, Land Reform, economy, parties, military, secessionists and autonomists?
 
Would it make sense to expect, as electoral result, something along these lines:
  • 20-25 % for the Social Revolutionaries (still undivided and even reunited with the Trudowniki)
  • around 10-15 % each for Constitutional Democrats, Mensheviks, Bolsheviks, and an either united or divided monarchist-restorationist-nationalist camp
  • with the rest (around 30 %) going to secessionist / autonomist groups of various nationalities, anarchists, and a whole host of less well-known splinter groups?
 
The PG used the forthcoming Constituent Assembly as an excuse for delaying many important decisions ("this must wait for the Constituent Assembly")--yet at the same time they didn't hold the elections to the Constituent Assembly until it was too late. Oliver Radkey has argued that the election could have been held much sooner, but that the Kadets in particular wanted to delay it because they knew they would do poorly. "Precious weeks were wasted in sterile debates on such subjects as electoral rights for the defunct dynasty, no member of which could have mustered a corporal's guard (better, a general's guard). At first there had been talk of holding the election in August, but August yielded to September, September yielded to October, and it required an ultimatum from Minister-President Kerenski's own party to hold the government to a date in November. Actually, November 25 marked merely the beginning of the electoral process, which dragged on into December and then into January of 1918. It was a miserable performance." *Russia Goes to the Polls: The Election to the All-Russian Constituent Assembly, 1917* (second edition, 1990), p. 92.

Was it inevitable that the elections be so delayed? Radkey doesn't think so:

"There are those who contend that the situation both within the country and outside it precluded any satisfactory consultation of the population in 1917. This contention, made in exculpation of the Provisional Government, does not stand the test of history. Two months had been enough to enable France to choose its constituent assembly in 1848. Two months had sufficed for Germany (9 November 1918-January 1919). And two weeks had seen an election held and the Bordeaux assembly convened after the capitulation of Paris (29 January-13 February 1871). Eight months were required for Russia to *begin* to elect its constituent assembly and almost two more for *half* this assembly to convene. But, it will be objected, France and Germany are nation-states and limited in size, whereas Russia is an empire, vast and many-peopled. Actually Russia was in far better condition to elect an assembly in 1917 than France in 1871 or Germany in 1919, countries that were wholly at the mercy of enemy powers as well as being racked by revolution and Germany by near famine. For France even to hold an election required the indulgence of Bismarck. Russia had lost nothing except the outer belt of territories that it had taken from others; hardly anywhere did the enemv stand on truly Russian soil. It is not the unwieldiness or backwardness of Russia that accounts for the difference, it is the will of the respective governments. Those of France and Germany sincerely sought an expression of the national will because of democratic principle and as a means of coping with a desperate situation: that of Russia outwardly deferred to popular sovereignty but was determined to thwart or delay as long as possible anything that might detract from prosecution of the war. It quite failed to see that this course was creating for itself as well as for the assembly a situation that would become not only desperate but hopeless." *Russia Goes to the Polls: The Election to the All-Russian Constituent Assembly, 1917* (second edition, 1990), pp. 95-96.

So it was *technically* feasible to hold a Constituent Assembly election well before it was held. *Politically* however one could not force one unless the Menshevik and SR majority in the soviet was willing to break with the Kadets and assume power on its own--which it was not yet willing to do in spring of 1917. As I have noted here before:

***

The Mensheviks, however, did have an influence in 1917 out of proportion to their numbers--but IMO it was a bad influence. The problem was that the Mensheviks were dogmatic Marxists--much more dogmatic than the Bolsheviks. As orthodox Marxists, they believed that the Russian revolution was still going through its "bourgeois" stage (after all, it's a backward, peasant nation, not yet ready for socialism, etc.) and that an all-socialist government (which would mean a break with the Kadets) was therefore not desirable. And alas the SR's went along with the Mensheviks on that point. To quote an old soc.history.what-if post of mine:

"As it was, the Mensheviks and SRs were handicapped by the fact that in each case the right wing of the party was dominant, and the left wing did not want to split with it (except, as I noted, some of the extreme left-wing SRs, and even they split only after October). The Right Mensheviks and Right SRs opposed an all-socialist government and insisted on supporting Kerensky (himself nominally an SR though he regarded himself as being above parties) and on maintaining a coalition with the Kadets. In the case of the Right Mensheviks, this was due to a dogmatic Marxism (the Mensheviks were always more "orthodox" about their Marxism than the Bolsheviks): Since by all orthodox Marxist standards, backward Russia was not ready for socialism, it was essential not to alienate the bourgeoisie from the revolution. As for the SRs, they were curiously willing to follow the pro-war, pro-coalition-with-the-Kadets Mensheviks. Oliver Radkey in *The Agrarian Foes of Bolshevism: Promise and Default of the Russian Socialist Revolutionaries, February to October 1917* (New York and London: Columbia UP 1958) notes that the Mensheviks' concept of revolution was "as though made to order" for the right SR's, "whose zeal for war led them above all else to desire a class truce, which could only mean the bourgeois hegemony of the revolution postulated in Menshevik theory" (p.467). But Radkey also adds (pp. 466-7):

"'Yet it was not just the right wing which held the PSR in thralldom to Menshevism. The center was also responsible for this fateful dependency of the larger party upon the smaller, even to the extent of abandoning its own concept of the revolution. Chernov says the SR's were twice late in respect to coalition, first with its formation, and then with its liquidation. But he also tells us, on an earlier occasion when the impression of the overwhelming catastrophe sustained by his party was fresh on his mind, that at the time of the July crisis the question of a socialist government had been posed and had been decided in the negative, partly because the Mensheviks refused to join. A break with Menshevism was by no means desired by many adherents of the center, leftist in inclination. Presumably he numbered himself among these members--he was always friendly to Menshevism. It was at the Tenth Petersburg Conference, however, that he spoke more frankly than on other occasions. He admitted that SR tactics had been framed with reference to Menshevik tactics--sometimes excessively so. He admitted that for the Mensheviks, with their concept of a bourgeois revolution, coalition had been a goal, whereas for the SR's it was only a means. When Tsereteli at the Democratic Conference termed 1905 a failure but this revolution a success, because of the achievement of coalition, Chernov had realized that their paths were fatefully diverging. Need he have waited so long? And why, after the truth finally dawned upon him, should he have thought of Tsereteli as minister of foreign affairs in a government headed by himself?'"

It really seems that although "Populist" parties got more votes than "Marxist" ones in Russia in 1917, *both* wings of the SR's were unduly influenced by the Marxist parties--the Left SR's by the Bolsheviks and the Right and Center SR's by the Mensheviks. The latter is the more curious development, since, as Radkey noted, it meant the dependency of a large party on a smaller one.

https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...evik-october-revolution.451353/#post-17559763
 
@David T
Radkey's book has indeed been what stimulated my question.
But this is alternate history - so: What if the elections were held in May?
You can pick from a number of possible reasons for this departure: have a different set of leaders of the SRs realise how peasants are already taking matters into their own hands and push for the move which could formalise and legalise land reform, or have leading Cadets be more perspicacious about their deteriorating situation and push for the earliest possible (and thus for them least unfavourable) election date, or maybe to obtain a sounder mandate for continuing the war, or to tie the occupied territories politically back under the umbrella of Russian politics. Or whatever - I know this is not OTL, just choose your reason, and if you think it needs a deeper PoD, pick a less butterfly-intensive one and have a go.
What happens with our Constituant Assembly?
Lenin is already back, but the July Days have not yet come. Red Guards are still in formation. Military leadership knows about the mutinous atmosphere among the troops, but politicians are still unaware of how incapable Russia's army is of maintaining defensive or even starting offensive operations, unless they're relying more or less exclusively on foreigners (Romanians, Czechoslavaks). Secessionist mood in many places, but not yet the warlordism we see from 1918 onwards. The food situation in the cities is dire.
So, who shall gather (and where?) in the new Constituant Assembly, whom do they elect and with what kinds of powers, and what policies will be immediately pursued, and with what consequences?
I'm sure things would not be identical with the policies pursued by the Provisional Government. For one thing, the Constituant Assembly is going to be a lot more left-leaning (although arguably not quite as left-leaning as OTL's results at the end of the year) in its composition, so everyone has become a bit more aware about factional realities. And we now have a body with very solid legitimacy and thus possibly also authority. (And what are the councils/soviets going to do?)
 
The problems will immediately come from both the prospect of a spring/summer offensive and the national parties. The so-called Kerensky offensive turned many soldiers against the provisional government and towards the Bolsheviks, less because they supported the Bolsheviks and more because the Bolsheviks were the only party consistently claiming to be against the war. The offensive was always in question once Brusilov actually reviewed the troops and realised their morale but Kerensky was committed, contributing to his own downfall. The national question would have also been a problem as the Provisional Government was consistently putting off any debate until the CA convened.

The dispositions of the elections would potentially have led to the SRs having the largest party with a significant Kadet party. I doubt that the Bolsheviks and the Mensheviks would have broken 20% combined at this stage but they'd have significant showing in the major cities. There were enough leading Bolsheviks who supported cooperation and conciliation at this point so they would probably 'happily' be a minor opposition party in the CA but Lenin himself would, at this point, continue to advocate a Soviet government. It's entirely possible, if the CA make the same mistakes as the PG, that the Bolsheviks lead a similar October Revolution but this time there's no accusation of them dissolving the CA for no reason.
 
You know, that would be really fascinating - the Provisional Government dissolves itself and acquiesces to Constituent Assembly elections; the Constituent Assembly is duly elected and replaces the Provisional Government, but then due to the influence of rightist factions the Constituent Assembly follows the disastrous policies of IOTL Kerensky's Provisional Government (Kerensky Offensive, delaying land reform, etc). Thus, ITTL it is the Constituent Assembly that loses all public support, rather than the non-existent Provisional Government, and it is this Constituent Assembly that is subsequently overthrown in a Bolshevik revolution (likely in alliance with other leftist factions such as the Left SRs).

Once this Bolshevik revolution deposes the unpopular Constituent Assembly, all power is immediately transferred to the soviets for the establishment of a Soviet government, with no public pressure on the revolutionaries to continue allowing a Constituent Assembly to exist in tandem to the Soviet government or even to call elections for a fresh Constituent Assembly, as it has been thoroughly discredited in favour of a Soviet government.

The Soviet position in the subsequent civil war would be significantly strengthened, leading to all sorts of butterflies.
 
The CA following the same pattern as OTL's PG is definitely a possibility because many of the factors which led to e.g. Kerensky's decisions IOTL are still there ITTL. And I agree that this would make for interesting alterations in an alt-Bolshevik Soviet Russia, although I don't necessarily think the CA would just throw their hands up and surrender even if they were "unpopular".

But I don't think it's a given that the CA would pursue the same policies as the PG. Some factors are different. One among them is that there'd be quite some input from the "periphery", the territory, the rural areas, call it what you will, compared to OTL where the PG as well as the Soviet parallel structure were both very much focused on Petrograd (and a bit on Moscow). Another one is that all the parties can directly interact with each other, all the factions can form, splinter away like OTL but then build new alliances because they're all under one roof. OTL's 1912 Duma was way too right-wing when compared to the atmosphere of 1917, none of the major players of 1917 was even in there.

I'll throw in one thought. IOTL, Kerensky suffered a defeat at a SR convention just around that time and his bid for party leadership fell through. IOTL, this was of no consequence for his participation in the PG, which then reached its low with the doomed military offensive in July and the unrest in Petrograd and other cities.
But if this had not happened in a party convention, but in the SR's sizable faction in the CA... it might well mean someone else leads the party's negotiations for a coalition. Probably not someone from the very left fringe of the party, but what about Chernov?

If you're right and I underestimated the SR's electoral share and it would be slightly closer to OTL's 41 %, then Chernov would clearly see that he doesn't need the Cadets for a majority of his own. He would have a divided party faction, that's true, so he, too, would probably try to reach out to many groups to form a broad coalition in such times of war and trouble. (Also, because he needs the cooperation or acquiescence of the soviets. But that, again, hints away from the cadets.) Would a CA-backed government headed by CHernov really do the very same things which OTL's PG did? CHernov had repeatedly proposed land reform bills. Now would be the time to pass and implement them - his party would certainly mostly follow him here since this was its main goal. And the Bolsheviks would support it, too, even if they're just a minor group. So would independence-minded minority groups in the Baltics who were discussing their own land reform projects at that moment.
Of course, that could make the war effort crumble because all peasants rush home not to miss out in the land distribution. But what if Chernov anticipates that and declares a one-sided ceasefire? (The Germans and Austro-Hungarians would probably advance... but how far?)
 
If you're right and I underestimated the SR's electoral share and it would be slightly closer to OTL's 41 %
This is Orlando Figes: "The Kadet Party took up the national flag. No doubt they hoped that posing as patriots might reverse their alarming electoral decline. In the city Duma elections during May the Kadets had gained less than 20 per cent of the vote. No longer able to compete with the socialists for mass support..." (p412 A People's Tragedy). Very quickly we see society drifting Leftward and to more radical conclusions. The liberals' tentative alliance with the SRs was dropped over the policies of land reform and the national question but they had already floundered in popularity. Ironically, the Chernovs of the SRs and the Tseretelli's of the Mensheviks were convinced of the stagist theory of history, that there must be a bourgeois government before there could be a socialist one, and so the idea of forming a socialist government, which could have been entirely possible in the event of early CA elections, went against their principles.
 
The PSR would do much better in a May-June Constituent Assembly than they did in the OTL November-December elections. (Many people think they won a majority of votes and seats in the OTL Constituent Assembly election, but this is mistaken as I explain at https://www.alternatehistory.com/fo...in-revolutionary-russia.448504/#post-17366474 The mistake largely rests on a failure to realize that the Ukrainian SR's were a separate party.) There are a number of reasons for this. First, of course, the Left SR's had not split off. Second, in addition to their rural strength, in June the SR's--as municipal duma elections that month indicated--were very strong in the two big cities (Petrograd and Moscow) that were to vote Bolshevik in November. (Also, in November, the Kadets, while doing quite poorly in Russia as a whole, did very respectably in Moscow and Petrograd compared to their June showing. So the SR's lost ground to both "extremes"--left and right--in the big cities between June and November, the workers gravitating to the Bolsheviks and the middle class to the Kadets.)

So the Constituent Assembly is going to be overwhelmingly SR--but this will just expose the divisions in the PSR, which ranged from near-Bolsheviks to near-Kadets. (Even for the right wing of the party, however, it's going to be difficult to justify giving the Kadets a major role in the government, given the Kadets' very poor electoral showing.) And by October the garrison in Petrograd is not going to give a damn for the Constituent Assembly--all it wants is to end the war, go home and get the landlords' land. If the Constituent Assembly is not up to the job of tackling the issues of peace and land, no matter how democratically elected it was, it is hard for me to see any government chosen by it avoiding Kerensky's fate.
 
@David T,
I agree, if they don't tackle Land and peace, they're screwed (although they'd still not go without a fight).

But maybe, with the kinds of majorities you allude to, they tackle them. Basically the 1917 agenda of the Bolsheviks (minus nationalization of industry), only within a more "usual" legal/institutional framework and with a less ambiguous democratic mandate.

The two biggest problems then apear to be the Germans and the food situation in the cities / industrial unrest. I don't see any good solutions to these two, a Brest-Litowsk would bring the CA the kind of Stigma Weimar received from the right, and no treaty could mean Germans in Petrograd...

As for the Situation in the cities, that's going to be dire even with the war stopped, isn't it? How fast could it rebounce, given a Chaos accompanying Land Reform and possibly still some manner of armed resistance? I don't see any SR-led government decreeing soviet control over industries...
 
If there's no Kerensky offensive and the army is instead put on the defensive whilst peace negotiations occur, it's entirely possible that the Germans, who wanted to move more troops west to counter the entry of the US into the war, would be willing to enter into a favourable peace deal. The problem is, significant sections of the SRs were supporters of their alliance with France and Britain and so were determined to continue the war as best they could, the rest were not favourable enough to peace that they would accept any losses of territory.
 
If there's no Kerensky offensive and the army is instead put on the defensive whilst peace negotiations occur, it's entirely possible that the Germans, who wanted to move more troops west to counter the entry of the US into the war, would be willing to enter into a favourable peace deal. The problem is, significant sections of the SRs were supporters of their alliance with France and Britain and so were determined to continue the war as best they could, the rest were not favourable enough to peace that they would accept any losses of territory.
Maybe a ceasefire, like the Bolshevik december ceasefire, is enough for the time being? (though even that could sever ties with the Czechoslovak Legion etc.)

Did the SR have any concept for a restructuring of the army?
 
Maybe a ceasefire, like the Bolshevik december ceasefire, is enough for the time being? (though even that could sever ties with the Czechoslovak Legion etc.)

Did the SR have any concept for a restructuring of the army?
Not really and, although I don't want to delve into Great Man theory, here I feel we can readily say that Trotsky was somewhat of a miracle worker in forging the Red Army like he did. The Right SRs were agreeable to reintroduction of military discipline including corporal punishment and execution and although Brusilov was aware enough that he tolerated the soldiers councils the rest of the Generals and officers were entirely against all the changes in the army, to the detriment of its cohesiveness. The SR remnant in Samsara, the Komuch, tried to raise a volunteer army and only found 8,000 men willing and so they eventually resorted to conscription and increasingly lost all control to White Generals.
 
Not really and, although I don't want to delve into Great Man theory, here I feel we can readily say that Trotsky was somewhat of a miracle worker in forging the Red Army like he did. The Right SRs were agreeable to reintroduction of military discipline including corporal punishment and execution and although Brusilov was aware enough that he tolerated the soldiers councils the rest of the Generals and officers were entirely against all the changes in the army, to the detriment of its cohesiveness. The SR remnant in Samsara, the Komuch, tried to raise a volunteer army and only found 8,000 men willing and so they eventually resorted to conscription and increasingly lost all control to White Generals.
OK, so we can assume, the army is going to be a liability for the Republic, just like the Reichswehr and Freikorps were for Weimar. No solution for the Double structure of soldiers' councils and traditional chain of command.

The Germans are not stupid and must be aware of these problems. They won't offer a good deal. But they may leave the eastern front rather neglected - given that they couldn't administer even the territorial gains they had made so far.
Our SR government may just have enough time to implement the Land Reform.
Who is going to immediately declare independence from this russia?
How are the officers (often landholders who lose from the Land Reform, I guess?) going to react - attempted coups?
And how does the food situation compare to OTL at the end of the year 1917, given half a year of ceasefire and Land reform?
 
So the army is going to be difficult, workers may resume strikes, and the parallel structure remains unresolved.
What if the government fell a few months later than IOTL (say around march/April 1918), but not to a bolshevik Coup, but because it loses its support in the Constituant Assembly?
Right- and left-wing defections of the SR would cost them their majority. What then? With three camps, neither has a majority. The Bolsheviks are on an ascending trajectory, but two of their most popular planks have been pulled from under their feet (Land and peace, even though the latter is still not quite achieved yet). What about the right Opposition, could the course of WW1 or the nationality question help them?
Or would the Bolshevik Coup still succeed, even though other means of overturning the government are already available?
 
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