WI: Ferdinand Magellan sails for Portugal?

[TheWitheredStriker]

I don't think I've ever seen this one done before.

Ferdinand Magellan was a Portuguese explorer who circumnavigated the world ... in service of Spain. His history in Portugal became rather turbulent:

After taking a leave without permission, Magellan fell out of favour. Serving in Morocco, he was wounded, resulting in a permanent limp. He was accused of trading illegally with the Moors. The accusations were proven false, but he received no further offers of employment after 15 May 1514. Later in 1515, he was offered employment as a crew member on a Portuguese ship, but rejected this. In 1517, after a quarrel with Manuel I of Portugal, who denied his persistent requests to lead an expedition to reach the Spice Islands from the east (i.e., while sailing westwards, thus avoiding the need to sail around the tip of Africa), he left for Spain.

For the sake of this scenario, let's suppose Magellan and Manuel don't have a falling-out. After some deliberation, Manuel realizes he doesn't really have much to lose with this expedition, so he decides to give Magellan the green light. Rather than rolling over to Spain, Magellan goes on his trek in service of his home country.

What would happen next? Assuming the voyage isn't radically altered from OTL, Magellan would land at Guam (which I suppose would become a Portuguese possession ITTL) and from there he would carry on to the Philippines. My guess is that from there we could get a Portuguese Philippines if we're lucky, though they most certainly would not be known as such. I've seen the Manuelinhas suggested before on this board, which I've slightly rewritten into the Manolines (Manolinhas), because it just sounds slightly better imo. I think that Portuguese colonization of the Philippines would be much "looser" than the Spanish conquest of OTL, since they historically seemed to have preferred vassalization and conversion of allied natives.

From here we have more of a free hand, but in general I believe that the Portuguese Empire will have much more of a presence in East and Southeast Asia in this timeline. I can see Malacca and the Moluccas remaining Portuguese, and it seems logical to me that Portugal would expand their colonial efforts in the region. Perhaps Timor is colonized earlier? Maybe the Portuguese have more luck in their plan to replace the Sultan of Ternate with a Christian?* Hell, if we're being very bold: maybe the Portuguese are able to save the Sunda Kingdom, with whom they had an alliance against the Muslims? I also really fancy the idea of Portugal establishing a protectorate over the Ryukyu Kingdom, well before the Japanese invade and vassalize it.

(* This is an actual plot from OTL. The Portuguese kidnapped a Ternatean sultan and managed to get him to convert to Christianity. Ternate at the time was not Islamized outside of the royalty and some elite, so a Christianization of the kingdom was highly possible. Unfortunately for Portugal, the kidnapped sultan's family had him poisoned in Malacca, and thus the scheme fell through.)

Now, having more colonies may be cool and all for Portugal, but there's still a problem. If we suppose that OTL's dynastic and military history isn't radically altered by Portugal having more vassals and possessions in Asia, then that means Portugal is going to be eaten up by Spain come 1580 ... or will it? IIRC, most Portuguese nobles sided with Felipe II because Portugal's misadventures in Morocco bankrupted the country, and Felipe promised he'd pay for all the costs and ransoms. He also bribed other nobles with gold from the Americas. If the Portuguese have a stronger grip over the spice trade though, maybe they would have more cash when Sebastian gets himself killed, and so there might be more resistance to the Spaniards. Who knows, might Ranuccio Farnese, Catherine of Braganza, or (somehow) Anthony the Prior of Crato acquire the throne ITTL?

But back to the original point I was attempting to make: let's suppose there is still an Iberian Union ITTL. That means the Dutch are coming for the Portuguese Empire. Which got me thinking: would they really have as much success as they did IOTL? ITTL, Portugal is much more heavily entrenched in the region, and has been allocating far more attention to its holdings there. The Dutch might still take other territories, like Ceylon, Arguin, Malabar and the Gold Coast, but I feel that Portugal's possessions in the Far East will be much more secure now (even IOTL, the Dutch had many difficulties taking Malacca). Would it be possible for the Dutch and Portuguese to both have a presence in the Indonesian Archipelago? If so, how would the region be split?

All in all, I think the simple PoD of Manuel allowing Magellan to sail for him could have several interesting ramifications. Has anyone else got any thoughts on this?

@Viriato @Phalamus @Lusitania Apologies if these pings were unwanted, but I remember the three of you being fairly interested in Portugal PoDs and knowledgeable on the country's history. Maybe this premise might catch your interest?

 

[Phalamus]

For the sake of this scenario, let's suppose Magellan and Manuel don't have a falling-out. After some deliberation, Manuel realizes he doesn't really have much to lose with this expedition, so he decides to give Magellan the green light

Well, he actually really does have something to lose. Expeditions are expensive, and very high risk enterprises. That's why navigators often had a hard time getting their ideas greenlit. Maritime discoveries were the early modern equivalent of the space program...

I just don't feel like the draw is there for Portugal. For Spain, Magellan must have sounded like a mad genius, because his plan would allow them to access the spice islands by sailing their side of the line!!! From the Portuguese prescriptive, however, they already have a route to the Moluccas, one that is closer to their already existing outposts in Asia. They are also legally preventing from sailing west of the Tordesillas meridian, so they knew Spain would lodge a protest if Magellan did that under the Portuguese flag. Worst of all, they might get the idea of doing the same, and making exactly the same claim that they made with Magellan IOTL.

Even if we hand-wave all of this and say that the expedition would still happen, Portugal still would have no reason to colonize Guam and the Philippines. For the Spanish, it was their way to trade with China, and sell them gold and silver from their possessions in South America. But what could they do for Portugal?

If Magellan stays in Portugal and still has the idea of fucking with the Tordesillas loophole, maybe a potential way of making this interesting to Manuel could be to turn the expedition on its head: reaching American by sailing east, thus giving Portugal a way of claiming something in that continent. But the question then becomes what exactly they might be interested in claiming. Maybe if Pizarro fails against the Inca there could be an interest there?