WI: Ferdinand of Aragon dies before return of Columbus

[Jan Olbracht]

As title says-when Columbus returns from his first voyage he finds that only one of Catholic Monarchs is still alive and Aragon and Castile are not united anymore. What happens? Are next voyages butterflied away or delayed due to troubles in Iberia? Or is Isabella still interested in exploring "India"?
Meanwhile what happens with Aragon? John, son of Isabella and Ferdinand, would be legally adult at the time of father's death. But if he still dies young and childless then there is another succession crisis in Aragon-according to Aragonese customs throne should be inherited by male relative of the King, thus is Duke of Segorbe going to succeede John as ruler of Aragon? And what role Aragon would play during Italian Wars, having no access to Castilian resources and manpower?

 

[RedKing]

Not sure about the Columbus part but I'd imagine the gold would be enough to get Isabella's attention. As for John he might have better luck here as butterflies could save him. Also since Isabella is likely alive when John dies she might try and make her daughter the Queen. I'd imagine John would sort that issue out before he dies though.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Not sure about the Columbus part but I'd imagine the gold would be enough to get Isabella's attention.

Did Columbus come back with gold on his first voyage? If he only made landfall somewhere in the Caribbean it was just slaves, wasn't it?

AsAs for John he might have better luck here as butterflies could save him. Also since Isabella is likely alive when John dies she might try and make her daughter the Queen.

Isabel held no power in Aragon (just like Fernando held no power in Castile). She also didn't understand the political system in Aragon and once, when the Cortes in Aragon wouldn't go her way, she told Fernando "these people aren't loyal. We should get an army to conquer them". Fernando was better at playing them. And the leader of the Aragonese government will likely be Segorbe in name only. Real "kingmaker" was the archbishop of Zaragoza (Fernando el Catolico's bastard son). Isabel HATED Fernando's bastards, but she'd also recently refused to allow Alfonso to become archbishop of Toledo (and a cardinal) as what Fernando wanted. Alfonso didn't seem to like Isabel much either.

I DOUBT that we'll see a "King Alfonso" if Juan dies, but I could DEFINITELY see Zaragoza making life difficult if Isabel tries to enforce Isabel Jr as queen of Aragon

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Did Columbus come back with gold on his first voyage? If he only made landfall somewhere in the Caribbean it was just slaves, wasn't it?

Isabel held no power in Aragon (just like Fernando held no power in Castile). She also didn't understand the political system in Aragon and once, when the Cortes in Aragon wouldn't go her way, she told Fernando "these people aren't loyal. We should get an army to conquer them". Fernando was better at playing them. And the leader of the Aragonese government will likely be Segorbe in name only. Real "kingmaker" was the archbishop of Zaragoza (Fernando el Catolico's bastard son). Isabel HATED Fernando's bastards, but she'd also recently refused to allow Alfonso to become archbishop of Toledo (and a cardinal) as what Fernando wanted. Alfonso didn't seem to like Isabel much either.

I DOUBT that we'll see a "King Alfonso" if Juan dies, but I could DEFINITELY see Zaragoza making life difficult if Isabel tries to enforce Isabel Jr as queen of Aragon

So do you think that as kingmaker he'd support Segorbe?

 

[Ivan Lupo]

If Juan is already able to rule Aragon in his own right, he would be able to name his own heir until he marries and has his own children. While he would probably have some valuable input from his mother, Juan is still calling the shots, though there could be a power struggle with Alfonso his half brother and Segorbe. He isn't married to Margaret of Austria yet, nor is his sister married to Philip of Burgundy either. Completely different marriages based on the new situation could very well be in order, and Juan is still in line to succeed Isabel in Castile. The sooner Juan has an heir or two, the better.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

While Fernando hated his cousins from Naples it does not need to be true for Juan, thus maybe Joanna of Naples ends as Aragonese Queen?

 

[Pesterfield]

Is the situation disruptive enough Granada could try to make a comeback?

Did Columbus come back with gold on his first voyage?

From wikipedia: a few small samples of gold, pearls, gold jewelry from the natives, a few Taíno he had kidnapped, flowers, and a hammock.
The next line mentions tobacco, pineapple, and turkey as well.

 

[RedKing]

Did Columbus come back with gold on his first voyage? If he only made landfall somewhere in the Caribbean it was just slaves, wasn't it?

I am pretty sure he did, or maybe I got it wrong. But if he didn't have any what enticed Ferdinand to send him back soon.

sabel held no power in Aragon (just like Fernando held no power in Castile). She also didn't understand the political system in Aragon and once, when the Cortes in Aragon wouldn't go her way, she told Fernando "these people aren't loyal. We should get an army to conquer them". Fernando was better at playing them. And the leader of the Aragonese government will likely be Segorbe in name only. Real "kingmaker" was the archbishop of Zaragoza (Fernando el Catolico's bastard son). Isabel HATED Fernando's bastards, but she'd also recently refused to allow Alfonso to become archbishop of Toledo (and a cardinal) as what Fernando wanted. Alfonso didn't seem to like Isabel much either.

I DOUBT that we'll see a "King Alfonso" if Juan dies, but I could DEFINITELY see Zaragoza making life difficult if Isabel tries to enforce Isabel Jr as queen of Aragon

True, chances are it'll be messy getting Isabella Jr on the throne but with Portuguese support it could be done.

 

[RedKing]

While Fernando hated his cousins from Naples it does not need to be true for Juan, thus maybe Joanna of Naples ends as Aragonese Queen?

Possible, it would help John secure any interests he has in Naples and the two are closer in age so they could have more children sooner.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

chances are it'll be messy getting Isabella Jr on the throne but with Portuguese support it could be done.

Matter comes up of whether it's worth it? Not like Segorbe is a total unknown. His mom's brother is one of Isabel's closest confidantes, and Segorbe himself has been viceroy of Catalonia since 1479. It's not "ideal", sure, but he's also going to be massively hard to dislodge (he's had nearly fifteen years to consolidate his rule), and it's going to be lead to war. Castile and Aragon going to war means that there's a "gap" for the recently defeated Moors to try to squirm back in.

I think the safest is to really just hope that Juan lives or leaves an heir, cause otherwise, this can get very Game of Thrones. Isabel wasn't popular in Aragon, and an Aragonese subjugation to Castile I doubt will be considered well. OTL, Fernando liked Manuel (more than he did Philipp of Austria) so he could've smoothed the route for a full Iberian union had it come to it. Isabel, OTOH, seems like the sort that will turn her armies against Aragon to claim it for her daughter and you'll end up either with Isabel Jr as queen of Aragon (or at least her son with Isabel Jr as regent) and the whole of Aragon (not just Catalonia) being restive under this union like OTL. Or you will end up with Segorbe as successor and Isabel as broke with bad blood from Portugal because they wasted their army/money on such an enterprise.

 

[RedKing]

Matter comes up of whether it's worth it? Not like Segorbe is a total unknown. His mom's brother is one of Isabel's closest confidantes, and Segorbe himself has been viceroy of Catalonia since 1479. It's not "ideal", sure, but he's also going to be massively hard to dislodge (he's had nearly fifteen years to consolidate his rule), and it's going to be lead to war. Castile and Aragon going to war means that there's a "gap" for the recently defeated Moors to try to squirm back in.

I think the safest is to really just hope that Juan lives or leaves an heir, cause otherwise, this can get very Game of Thrones. Isabel wasn't popular in Aragon, and an Aragonese subjugation to Castile I doubt will be considered well. OTL, Fernando liked Manuel (more than he did Philipp of Austria) so he could've smoothed the route for a full Iberian union had it come to it. Isabel, OTOH, seems like the sort that will turn her armies against Aragon to claim it for her daughter and you'll end up either with Isabel Jr as queen of Aragon (or at least her son with Isabel Jr as regent) and the whole of Aragon (not just Catalonia) being restive under this union like OTL. Or you will end up with Segorbe as successor and Isabel as broke with bad blood from Portugal because they wasted their army/money on such an enterprise.

True but Castile and Portugal could easily get Isabella jr on the throne, I mean Manuel would probably want to get Isabella, her whole inheritance. Although I do think John will leave an heir. One solution is that if Isabella isn't married to Manuel when John dies is to marry her to Segorbe.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

True but Castile and Portugal could easily get Isabella jr on the throne, I mean Manuel would probably want to get Isabella, her whole inheritance. Although I do think John will leave an heir. One solution is that if Isabella isn't married to Manuel when John dies is to marry her to Segorbe.

Segorbe married in 1488 already. To a cousin of Manuel's brother-in-law (sorry, the Portuguese royal family is more like a family tumbleweed than a family tree at this point, so not sure how he's related to Manuel).

 

[Jan Olbracht]

True but Castile and Portugal could easily get Isabella jr on the throne, I mean Manuel would probably want to get Isabella, her whole inheritance. Although I do think John will leave an heir. One solution is that if Isabella isn't married to Manuel when John dies is to marry her to Segorbe.

Problem is Segorbe was already married before POD and his son was too young for Isabella Jr

 

[RedKing]

Segorbe married in 1488 already. To a cousin of Manuel's brother-in-law (sorry, the Portuguese royal family is more like a family tumbleweed than a family tree at this point, so not sure how he's related to Manuel).

Problem is Segorbe was already married before POD and his son was too young for Isabella Jr

Oh I see, there goes that idea. So really Isabella I's best bet is to get John to sign a will declaring Isabella jr his heir or for John to leave male issue before he dies.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

John to sign a will declaring Isabella jr his heir

Think if it were that simple Fernando II would've done it instead of marrying Germaine de Foix

 

[RedKing]

Think if it were that simple Fernando II would've done it instead of marrying Germaine de Foix

Yeah but, who was Ferdinand II going to name his heir in that scenario, Maria of Aragon? Joanna was his heir at that time so unless he want chaos he has no choice.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

Yeah but, who was Ferdinand II going to name his heir in that scenario, Maria of Aragon? Joanna was his heir at that time so unless he want chaos he has no choice.

My point is that Juan doing it by will is going to cause similar chaos. AFAIK the Cortes is the only power that could alter the succession laws like that. And as pointed out, Segorbe has had boots on the ground since 1479 - he's a known quantity - Alfonso of Aragon, archbishop of Zaragoza is a known quantity. Both likely will have supporters who are going to block Juan attempting to do this