WI: Kaiser Billy = Bismarck 2.0

[Deleted member 160141]

What if Kaiser Wilhelm II was in fact Bismarck 2.0 and agreed with his general view of politics, continued his policies, and in general was a much more savvy guy?

How would Germany fare, and how would things in Europe work out? If a situation like Sarajevo developed, could Wilhelm stop WW1 before it got rolling?

Okay, for anyone new here, just to avoid the spat that happens later on in Page 1: the key here is to have Wilhelm adopt Bismarck's foreign policy attitude instead of doing what he did IOTL.

 

[Mikey]

I think you have to imagine things would go pretty well, although there's an element with figures like Bismarck that they were able to keep their reputations because they died or left power before it all blew up in their faces.

The most direct thing would have been that Bismarck believed strongly in maintaining a friendly relationship, if not an alliance, with Russia, and generally a peaceful course of dealings with Britain. The outcome of this is the relative isolation of France, and it's hard to predict how long that would have lasted, or what would happen in France to change course. A general alignment of Britain, Germany, and Russia leaves France with few options.

 

[Aphrodite]

Wilhelm fired Bismarck because Bismarck wanted to start a social civil war. Given the strong support the socialists had, it's hard to see that ending well.

The final crisis came because Germany couldn't restrain Franz Joseph's insane Foreign Policy. The only real solution would have been to contain Austrian ambitions instead of allowing her to pursue an anti-Serb, anti-Romanian, anti-Italian and anti-Russian policy in the Balkans.

Bismarck had his chance at the Congress of Berlin but choose to back the Austrians in their nonsense.

Hard to see how things could have been better under Bismarck

 

[Catspoke]

Wilhelm fired Bismarck because Bismarck wanted to start a social civil war. Given the strong support the socialists had, it's hard to see that ending well.

The final crisis came because Germany couldn't restrain Franz Joseph's insane Foreign Policy. The only real solution would have been to contain Austrian ambitions instead of allowing her to pursue an anti-Serb, anti-Romanian, anti-Italian and anti-Russian policy in the Balkans.

Bismarck had his chance at the Congress of Berlin but choose to back the Austrians in their nonsense.

Hard to see how things could have been better under Bismarck

The best way to deal with Austria is to guarantee the pre 1878 boundary of Austria, and no further.

There is this sort of 7 years war siege mentality the Germans got themselves in, everyone is out to attack us, so we need this rock solid ally, we have to back all the time.

The reality is no combination of countries is going to aggression attack post 1871 Germany. The are obviously too strong. Germany just has not not do silly foreign policy moves, keep her military strong, and deal with other countries in a straight up manor.

The number one goal of any German government is, as long as the Czars are in sort of charge, no war with Russia ever. The boundaries with Russia are 1815 congress of. Vienna, and no one wants more Poles. This should have been easy.

The second goal is that Britain is the ultimate protector of Germany,s freedom of the seas and colonial interests. The 1890 agreement with Britain, post Bismarck, got Britain, the strongest naval power, to guarantee Germany's colonial boundaries, that was the kind of diplomacy Germany needed.

Third, the German army is what everyone feared, keep it strong and modern.

 

[NoMommsen]

Wilhelm fired Bismarck because Bismarck wanted to start a social civil war. Given the strong support the socialists had, it's hard to see that ending well.
...

... aha ....
And exactly upon what do you base this rather baseless statement given the points of conflict between Kaiser Bill and Bismarck like the formers refusal to renew the anti-socialist laws or Bismarcks attempts to form an ultra-conservative Parliamentary 'block' of the Zentrum catholics and the conservatives against Kaiser Bills wishes ? ... and also the politics of the "Neuer Kurs" (New Course, otherwise use google translate) with the by Kaiser Bill chosen successor of Bismarck Leo von Caprivi ?

Otherwise I can agree that with Bismarck further having the job things would rather have gone worse esp. in domestical terms.
At the time of his forced resignation Bismarck actually had already fallen out of the new times rules and necessities.
But would have been 'nice' Kaiser Bill would have somehow achieve a determination and the ability of continued focussing as Bismarck had. ... and acted it upon his starting intentions of becoming a "Peoples Kaiser".

 

[Aphrodite]

... aha ....
And exactly upon what do you base this rather baseless statement given the points of conflict between Kaiser Bill and Bismarck like the formers refusal to renew the anti-socialist laws or Bismarcks attempts to form an ultra-conservative Parliamentary 'block' of the Zentrum catholics and the conservatives against Kaiser Bills wishes ? ... and also the politics of the "Neuer Kurs" (New Course, otherwise use google translate) with the by Kaiser Bill chosen successor of Bismarck Leo von Caprivi ?

Otherwise I can agree that with Bismarck further having the job things would rather have gone worse esp. in domestical terms.
At the time of his forced resignation Bismarck actually had already fallen out of the new times rules and necessities.
But would have been 'nice' Kaiser Bill would have somehow achieve a determination and the ability of continued focussing as Bismarck had. ... and acted it upon his starting intentions of becoming a "Peoples Kaiser".

Why don't you look at the confrontation between the Kaiser and Bismarck regarding the anti socialist legislation. You know,the meeting where Bismarck admitted he wanted a crisis so he could bring out the troops

 

[AltoRegnant]

Why don't you look at the confrontation between the Kaiser and Bismarck regarding the anti socialist legislation. You know,the meeting where Bismarck admitted he wanted a crisis so he could bring out the troops

While bismarck was definitely power hungry, that is the kind of claim that I think we'd all like to see a source on?

 

[Mikey]

I don't think I interpreted OP as specifically continuing to listen to Bismarck for the rest of his reign (he would have been 99 years old when WW1 started), but a more general sense of "shared Bismarck's broadest priorities and diplomatic skills?"

 

[Deleted member 160141]

I don't think I interpreted OP as specifically continuing to listen to Bismarck for the rest of his reign (he would have been 99 years old when WW1 started), but a more general sense of "shared Bismarck's broadest priorities and diplomatic skills?"

Yeah. The idea's that he learns from Bismarck, isn't nearly as intemperate and rash as IOTL, and basically acts as Bismarck's successor as conductor of the European peace.

However, the basic requirement is that he becomes more politically sensible and isn't itching for foreign war, which spares Germany a whole range of problems (Anglo-German naval arms race, antagonizing the Russians, sticking to a "do whatever the fuck you want, I'm in, bro" oath with the Austrians, the "Huns" comment, etc).

 

[Karelian]

The main problem was that Bismarckian cabinet diplomacy was increasingly impossible in a world of growing jingoist media and public opinion. Meanwhile the decline of China and Ottoman Empire destabilized the international situation in a way that pitted the Great Powers against one another.

However, the basic requirement is that he becomes more politically sensible and isn't itching for foreign war.

Before Sarajevo, Wilhelm huffed and puffed only to the moment it seemed like things might really turn hot. Then he really tried to calm things down with the best of his abilities. Which is kind of a low bar, but still. He was a bombastic buffoon who was desperate for attention, not a warmonger unlike the generals he surrounded himself with.

 

[Aghasverov]

While bismarck was definitely power hungry, that is the kind of claim that I think we'd all like to see a source on?

Don't remember all the details, but very early in Der Kaiser's reign, there was a strike (mining strike in Silesia, maybe?), and old Otto wanted to send in the troops to break it up. Willy refused, stating something to the effect of "not wanting to start out my rule with a bloodbath perpetrated on my own subjects"...
Bismarck had instigated the "Kulturkampf" in an attempt to keep the Catholics down, it wouldn't have surprised me for him to want to unleash a similar effort against socialists and other leftists...

 

[Mikey]

Don't remember all the details, but very early in Der Kaiser's reign, there was a strike (mining strike in Silesia, maybe?), and old Otto wanted to send in the troops to break it up. Willy refused, stating something to the effect of "not wanting to start out my rule with a bloodbath perpetrated on my own subjects"...
Bismarck had instigated the "Kulturkampf" in an attempt to keep the Catholics down, it wouldn't have surprised me for him to want to unleash a similar effort against socialists and other leftists...

Yeah, I don't think that's necessarily a bad read on Bismarck, but at least for this thread, it might make sense to keep this relatively limited to foreign policy? It may also be that while Wilhelm II had some vague affections for miners and other manual workers, it's not like he was really pro-socialism.

 

[Aphrodite]

Don't remember all the details, but very early in Der Kaiser's reign, there was a strike (mining strike in Silesia, maybe?), and old Otto wanted to send in the troops to break it up. Willy refused, stating something to the effect of "not wanting to start out my rule with a bloodbath perpetrated on my own subjects"...
Bismarck had instigated the "Kulturkampf" in an attempt to keep the Catholics down, it wouldn't have surprised me for him to want to unleash a similar effort against socialists and other leftists...

It's a lot more than just a little coal strike. It had to do with renewing the anti socialist laws. The National liberals wouldn't vote to allow evictions of socialists from their homes. Bismarck insisted on renewing the laws in their entirety. In the cabinet meeting, Bismarck admitted he wanted the Socialists to resist so he could call out the troops.

Wilhelm wanted nothing to do with that scheme. Bismarck was allowed to limp along for awhile but he was effectively done.

 

[Aghasverov]

It's a lot more than just a little coal strike. It had to do with renewing the anti socialist laws. The National liberals wouldn't vote to allow evictions of socialists from their homes. Bismarck insisted on renewing the laws in their entirety. In the cabinet meeting, Bismarck admitted he wanted the Socialists to resist so he could call out the troops.

Wilhelm wanted nothing to do with that scheme. Bismarck was allowed to limp along for awhile but he was effectively done.

Thanks! Knew I wasn't remembering the story in its entirety...
(my mind's not exactly a steel trap... more like an iron sieve... full of holes and prone to rust )

 

[Deleted member 160141]

So how would things play out internationally? Great Britain still has beef with the Russians over ideology and interests in Central Asia. Russia is still industrializing and, without WW1 and maybe a little bit of luck, is still slated to become the dominant industrial power in Europe like so. Imperial Japan is still having problems with its schizophrenic military.

One more thing to consider: nuclear power. Given the amount of German Jews forced away by the Nazis, I'd bet my left arm and several organs on the statement that a peaceful Imperial Germany would develop it first. I might even bet a few more organs on the statement that, without the disruption of WW1, nuclear would be developed a few years earlier (five, at most).
This suddenly makes uranium a very important resource, and Germany itself has very little of it. Russia (in the Urals), America (in the Rockies) and Britain (in the Australian Outback), do have uranium, and plenty of it. How will this affect existing German fears of being made a second-rate power at the beck and call of Russia?

Because while a Russo-German alliance can steamroll the rest of Europe in 1914, the Russian Empire can probably steamroll Germany in 1944 due to their rate of economic expansion alone. I can imagine a Bismarckian Order falling apart just due to changing power positions over time. ​

Russia could easily have stood in America's place as the menace and policeman of Europe, except with a diametrically opposite ideology and interests.​

 

[kreepysam]

This suddenly makes uranium a very important resource, and Germany itself has very little of it. Russia (in the Urals), America (in the Rockies) and Britain (in the Australian Outback), do have uranium, and plenty of it. How will this affect existing German fears of being made a second-rate power at the beck and call of Russia?

​

Germany would have controlled large deposits of uranium also, through their holdings in Namibia.

 

[marktaha]

... aha ....
And exactly upon what do you base this rather baseless statement given the points of conflict between Kaiser Bill and Bismarck like the formers refusal to renew the anti-socialist laws or Bismarcks attempts to form an ultra-conservative Parliamentary 'block' of the Zentrum catholics and the conservatives against Kaiser Bills wishes ? ... and also the politics of the "Neuer Kurs" (New Course, otherwise use google translate) with the by Kaiser Bill chosen successor of Bismarck Leo von Caprivi ?

Otherwise I can agree that with Bismarck further having the job things would rather have gone worse esp. in domestical terms.
At the time of his forced resignation Bismarck actually had already fallen out of the new times rules and necessities.
But would have been 'nice' Kaiser Bill would have somehow achieve a determination and the ability of continued focussing as Bismarck had. ... and acted it upon his starting intentions of becoming a "Peoples Kaiser".

Didn't Bismarck start the welfare state?

 

[NoMommsen]

Why don't you look at the confrontation between the Kaiser and Bismarck regarding the anti socialist legislation. You know,the meeting where Bismarck admitted he wanted a crisis so he could bring out the troops

I apologize ... have misread your post perceiving that you menat Kaiser Bill wnated to start a "social civil war".
Again : I apologize.

 

[Mikey]

So how would things play out internationally? Great Britain still has beef with the Russians over ideology and interests in Central Asia. Russia is still industrializing and, without WW1 and maybe a little bit of luck, is still slated to become the dominant industrial power in Europe like so. Imperial Japan is still having problems with its schizophrenic military.

One more thing to consider: nuclear power. Given the amount of German Jews forced away by the Nazis, I'd bet my left arm and several organs on the statement that a peaceful Imperial Germany would develop it first. I might even bet a few more organs on the statement that, without the disruption of WW1, nuclear would be developed a few years earlier (five, at most).
This suddenly makes uranium a very important resource, and Germany itself has very little of it. Russia (in the Urals), America (in the Rockies) and Britain (in the Australian Outback), do have uranium, and plenty of it. How will this affect existing German fears of being made a second-rate power at the beck and call of Russia?

Because while a Russo-German alliance can steamroll the rest of Europe in 1914, the Russian Empire can probably steamroll Germany in 1944 due to their rate of economic expansion alone. I can imagine a Bismarckian Order falling apart just due to changing power positions over time. ​

Russia could easily have stood in America's place as the menace and policeman of Europe, except with a diametrically opposite ideology and interests.​

There certainly will be other possible international crises, but I don't know that we're ever guaranteed to have a long series of escalating tensions ending in conflict, especially given that the premise here is that Germany continues a path of trying very specifically to *avoid* a great power war.

I think it's still going to be a matter of quite a lot of time before we get to the point of a nuclear arms race. Germany probably does have the talent to get to nuclear power first, but without the pressure of a world war, none of those researchers are going to have anything like the budgets they had historically. Nuclear weapons are going to intrigue war planners, of course, but nuclear power generation may be pretty far down the list, and held back without the nuclear research motivated by building a bomb.

That said, there are significant uranium deposits in German territory - Germany has mined more uranium than any country except the United States, Canada, and Kazakhstan, and the first large-scale mining was in the Czech Republic, then part of Austria-Hungary and likely to be accessible to the Germans.

 

[Aghasverov]

Didn't Bismarck start the welfare state?

Bismarck's socioeconomic policy was pragmatic, to say the least... his strategy was to give the working class most of what they demanded - pensions, a limited work-week, workmen's insurance, etc etc... not out of a real sympathy, but as an effort to undermine the appeal of the socialists. Bismarck however was not afraid of resorting to the stick, when the carrot failed....