WI: No Forty-Eighters?

[Salvador79]

What would the effects of an absence of OTL's influx of refugees from European countries like Italy, Germany, Poland, Hungary etc. after the failed revolutions of 1848 mean for the USA? (Assume, for example, that 1848 is more successful.)

There would, of course, still be migration from Europe to North America. The promise of a new future, prosperity, gold etc. all played important roles, too. So, I wouldn't expect there not to be ANY migration, even out of Germany, Italy, Poland, Hungary etc.
But not a huge wave of political refugees and people generally very disillusioned with the way European states developed in 1850ff.

From the party political system of the US over settler dynamics, conflicts within and beyond the official member states of the Union, economic butterflies, ... - what do you think are the most plausible consequences of no Forty-Eighter migration?

 

[Nivek]

Assume, for example, that 1848 is more successful.)

I assume the opposite that never happened, those where never to sucess to begin with sans French One.

I think even without the revolution they would be coming on masse, Europe is full and USA is nobility land free land too

 

[stevej713]

1848's impact on overall European migration in the mid-late 19th century was not particularly substantial. According to the Yearbook of Immigration Statistics (2008), the real flood of immigrants didn't come until 1880 due to demographic pressure and the United States' tremendous economic growth. Nothing can be done in 1848 to change this. Furthermore, while German-Americans as a whole had a substantial impact on American politics, the influence of the 48ers was rather marginal - most settled in Texas and were against secession, but it's pretty obvious how successful they were in stopping it. Other destinations like Cincinnati and Milwaukee would see some changes to their cultural landscape, but little more than that. It's also unclear if 1848 was the primary motivator in European emigration as opposed to the opening of the west, the California Gold Rush, etc.

Just for fun, here are the numbers for the countries involved. As you can see, German immigration jumps significantly in the 1850s but is still outpaced by the 1880s. Immigration numbers for Italy, Poland, Austria, and Hungary would remain negligible until the 1880s and 1890s. The largest source of immigrants in the 1850s remained Ireland at 1,029,486.

Germany

• 1830-1839: 124,726
• 1840-1849: 385,434
• 1850-1859: 976,072
• 1860-1869: 723,734
• 1870-1879: 751,769
• 1880-1889: 1,445,181
• 1890-1899: 579,072

Italy

• 1830-1839: 2,225
• 1840-1849: 1,476
• 1850-1859: 8,643
• 1860-1869: 9,853
• 1870-1879: 46,296
• 1880-1889: 267,660
• 1890-1899: 603,761

Poland

• 1830-1839: 366
• 1840-1849: 105
• 1850-1859: 1,087
• 1860-1869: 1,886
• 1870-1879: 11,016
• 1880-1889: 42,910
• 1890-1899: 107,793

Austria

• 1830-1839: no data
• 1840-1849: no data
• 1850-1859: no data
• 1860-1869: 2,700
• 1870-1879: 54,529
• 1880-1889: 204,805
• 1890-1899: 268,218

Hungary

• 1830-1839: no data
• 1840-1849: no data
• 1850-1859: no data
• 1860-1869: 483
• 1870-1879: 5,598
• 1880-1889: 109,982
• 1890-1899: 203,350

 

[Salvador79]

@stevej713
Thanks for the numbers!

I was not trying to imply that the Forty-Eighters were the quantitatively biggest group of migrants from Europe. Sorry if this came across in a wrong way.
But, as you said, they had a very important political impact on the history of the US.
And settlement patterns would be significantly different, too - apart from the fact, of course, that if the history with the Secession War is changed, a lot more about the US changes, too...
Also, while the above points have been discussed here in old threads etc., what I couldn't find speculations about is what kind of skills the migrants brought, what occupations they ended up in, and how socio-economics of parts of the US would be different without them.