WI/PC: Jacobites target the French Throne

GlobalHumanism

I've been contemplating an intriguing scenario and would appreciate any insights. What if the Jacobites, instead of persisting in their efforts to reclaim the British throne, diverted their ambitions towards the French throne?

Consider the historical context: After the Glorious Revolution, the Jacobites were staunch supporters of the ousted Stuart monarchy, specifically James II and his descendants. With James II seeking refuge in France and the Jacobites receiving French support, there were deep ties between the two. Now, imagine a scenario where, following repeated failures in Britain, the Jacobites decide that their aspirations could be better realized by laying claim to the French throne.

This move might not be implausible. The Jacobites had military leaders like John Graham of Claverhouse and experienced troops who fought in various European conflicts. Furthermore, the French population, particularly the nobility, had shown sympathy towards the Stuarts due to shared Catholicism and opposition to the growing power of Protestant Britain.

How might this twist affect European politics? Would other European nations rally in support or im opposition to the Jacobites? Additionally, what would be the consequences for the Anglo-French relationship and the broader balance of power in Europe?

Would the Jacobites have any realistic chance of success?
 
Alamannicus

Alamannicus

mrmandias said:
I think you need some PODs in France to make this plausible, probably dynastic ones.
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Seconded, the Stuarts have recent(ish) Capetian blood through Henrietta Maria, but you'd need one hell of calamity to fall the Bourbons in order to get James II and VII and his sons anywhere near the line of succession.
 

Strategos' Risk

What if instead of directly laying claim to the French throne, they support one particular group of pretenders or another and get mixed up in local intrigue? Like White Russian emigres did during the interwar, backing local reactionary movements wherever they were in exile. Too bad they were a few centuries too early for there to be Legitimists for them to ally with.
 
Mildtryth

Mildtryth

GlobalHumanism said:
I've been contemplating an intriguing scenario and would appreciate any insights. What if the Jacobites, instead of persisting in their efforts to reclaim the British throne, diverted their ambitions towards the French throne?

Consider the historical context: After the Glorious Revolution, the Jacobites were staunch supporters of the ousted Stuart monarchy, specifically James II and his descendants. With James II seeking refuge in France and the Jacobites receiving French support, there were deep ties between the two. Now, imagine a scenario where, following repeated failures in Britain, the Jacobites decide that their aspirations could be better realized by laying claim to the French throne.

This move might not be implausible. The Jacobites had military leaders like John Graham of Claverhouse and experienced troops who fought in various European conflicts. Furthermore, the French population, particularly the nobility, had shown sympathy towards the Stuarts due to shared Catholicism and opposition to the growing power of Protestant Britain.

How might this twist affect European politics? Would other European nations rally in support or im opposition to the Jacobites? Additionally, what would be the consequences for the Anglo-French relationship and the broader balance of power in Europe?

Would the Jacobites have any realistic chance of success?
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The French succession had long been established as running only from the male line - there even had been a war regarding that. Henrietta Maria's descendants wouldn't have any claim.
 
Grey Wolf

Grey Wolf

Donor
Mildtryth said:
The French succession had long been established as running only from the male line - there even had been a war regarding that. Henrietta Maria's descendants wouldn't have any claim.
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Unless they won, when they would create it ex post facto like Henry Tudor

I don't see it as a very realistic scenario simply because it's a bunch of exiles trying to take over their host state, but legal niceties would be irrelevant to realities
 
Alamannicus

Alamannicus

Mildtryth said:
The French succession had long been established as running only from the male line - there even had been a war regarding that. Henrietta Maria's descendants wouldn't have any claim.
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Jeez Louise, you're telling me the English took a hundred years to get the point? :openedeyewink:

GlobalHumanism said:
Any chance a palace coup could take place in the case of a succession crisis or something?
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A more cunning James III and VIII might take advantage of court bickering to create a vastly more pro-Stuart France, with an exponentially larger amount of aid from the French Royal Army and Irish Exiles. I can't remember who (I think the then Duc d'Orleáns?) but there was a clique of the French court in Louis XV's day who loathed the Jacobites and did significant damage to the amount of French aid given in the '15 and the '45.
 

Emperor Constantine

OK, this might be the most out-there AHC/WI I've ever read, and I'm saying that as the resident Jacobite expert. To put it bluntly, no. There is NO chance that the Jacobites could/would make a claim to the French throne. Any Jacobite who tried would be arrested and expelled from the country, up to and including the Stuarts themselves. The French tolerated the Stuart title of "King of England, Scotland, France and Ireland" as a nominal tradition, not out of any genuine recognition. This was the same way that the English and British monarchs claimed to be King/Queen of France; it was a nominal, centuries old tradition, not of any monarch thinking they had a snowballs chance in hell of taking any part of France. The last English monarch who entertained that idea was Henry VIII.

The most I could see is the Jacobites taking advantage of a more unstable Régence era to install a pro-Stuart Regent, but IDK who that would be. The Duc d'Orléans hated the Stuarts for incredibly pretty reasons (I think it started over James II and James III denying him an armchair or only granting him a stool when he visited due to his rank), and I don't remember how their relations were with the Duc du Maine (who would be the guardian of the King if the Conspiration de Cellamare had succeeded). So a Maine/Felipe V régence could be more supportive of the Jacobites during the 1715-1722 period, but that's about it.
 
Avrorrange

Avrorrange

Almost impossible except through the Napoleon route. Even the Orleans route is impossible because the Orleans already exists as the proponent of liberal ideals.Now, a Stuart Napoleon would be interesting.
 
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AkhenatenOrRamses

Getting a Jacobite on the French throne would be very difficult outside of one of their number being a military genius on the level of Napoleon or Suvorov and they take advantage of a civil war or revolution or some other unrest to depose the crown. Salic law has already been long established for the French succession by now.
 
Alamannicus

Alamannicus

Strategos' Risk said:
Are there any French counterparts to a Jacobite-like ultra-Royalist movement, or are the Legitimists really the only ones?
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@Kellan Sullivan has made some great posts about how the Jacobite struggle, while dynastic in nature, was also chiefly about the continuing conflict between King and Parliament. A good analog for this in French royal politics was that in the Bourbon Restoration, Constitutionalists in the Doctrinaires, who wanted to reconcile the social and political achievements of the Revolution with the restoration of the monarchy, and Absolutists in the Ultras who wanted little to no compromise* with the restoration of many aspects of the Ancien Regime, primarily over the matter of properties stolen from Emigre families by the Revolutionary and Napoleonic governments. These two constantly butted heads until the Ultras won out with the support of Charles X.

Granted you didn’t really see Charles X’s descendants attempt to return to France on a flaming horse a la the Jacobites (hey, there’s a cool timeline in the making!) but hey, just me spitballing.

*Something I’m sure others can elaborate on but I’m aware that the Ultras have been significantly blackwashed in historiography. They were conservatives and rank-and-file monarchists, but not every member was a frothing-at-the-mouth religious zealot trying to get every Revolutionary and Imperial White Terror’d.
 

Strategos' Risk

The thing is, did any such forces or factions exist prior to the French Revolution? I think what would be most interesting here is if the Stuarts found a counterpart movement in France to ally to, but it seems like the monarchies were too fundamentally different.
 
Alamannicus

Alamannicus

Strategos' Risk said:
The thing is, did any such forces or factions exist prior to the French Revolution? I think what would be most interesting here is if the Stuarts found a counterpart movement in France to ally to, but it seems like the monarchies were too fundamentally different.
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Not to my knowledge. The last round of dynastic struggle had been between competing members of the de Valois in the Wars of Religion. With their extinction and the de Bourbons locking things down, there were no serious contenders for the Capetian throne until the rise of the Orleanists post Revolution.
 

jb3

Easiest way for Jacobites to get the French Throne. James II's daughter, Louisa, marries Louis XIV's 3rd grandson, the Duc de Berri, In this case his marriage is much happier with her, and he's probably not out on a hunting incident leading to his death. The Old Pretender, James Edward, dies instead of Louisa, of smallpox, making her the Jacobite heir. If the subsequent events of the French Royals happen (all the deaths due to smallpox), Berri becomes Regent for the young Louis XV (instead of Orleans) and is the closest male heir to the throne to a 5 year old. Louis XV dies young, and Berri becomes King as Charles X, and then Charles and Louisa's son becomes King of France eventually. His children will all be the Jacobite claim heirs, so the French King will be the Jacobite King of Britain as well.
 
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Charles III Stuart

Charles III Stuart

They would never do this, because unlike William of Orange, King James VII & II was loyal. France had been very good to him, given him a place to stay, a nice palace to live in. Why would King James betray France? He didn't even have a claim to the French throne (the French throne cannot pass through a female)
 
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