WI: Portugal colonizes Argentina in 1531

A little known chapter of history is told by journalist Eduardo Bueno in his amazing book "Captains of Brazil", that talks about the history of Colonial Brazil from the 1530s to the 1550s. Among the many things told in the book a particular stands out: the attempted colonization of the Río de la Plata by the Portuguese in 1531 by Martim Afonso de Sousa.
In 1530, an expedition to colonize modern-day Argentina was already being planned by Portugal, under the orders of Gonçalo da Costa in his correspondence with king João III, however this went nowhere. Until Martim Afonso de Sousa, a nobleman, was put in charge of leading the mission in 1531. During his trip to Argentina, he stopped in Brazil to gather supplies, with assistance from some survivors of Aleixo Garcia's (a Portuguese man who was the first European to discover Paraguay and the Inca Empire) failed 1525 expedition. In fact, so many supplies were gathered that historians estimate that even if the Portuguese weren't able to hunt or gather food, they would still be able to maintain supplies for 2 whole years, besides the large quantities of food brought by the expedition itself. Seeing this, it may come as a surprise that this expedition failed. And the reason for that failure is because of an unlucky storm that hit the ships sailing to the Río de la Plata and sunk many of them, including the ship carrying most of the food supplies. To make matters worse, the final nail on the coffin for this expedition was the sinking of Martim Afonso's own ship, which almost killed him and led him to cancel the expedition. In the end, he would go back to Brazil and colonize modern-day São Paulo, before being sent to India and never returning to the Americas.
But WI history had gone differently? Say that the ships are able to withstand the storm for some reason and they are able to settle down in the estuary of the River Plate and create a settlement there (around 400 people were on the voyage). The main objective of the voyage was to reach modern-day Peru and find gold there, which had been a Portuguese obsession ever since the Spanish conquered the Aztecs. But let's say that Afonso maintains a few hundred colonists in the Río de la Plata estuary and in modern-day Buenos Aires. What would be the long-term and short-term impacts of this expedition?
Also the Portuguese and the Spanish never cared that much about Tordesillas, so much so that Spain colonized the Philippines, which was technically on the Portuguese side of the treaty and that Portugal wanted to conquer Peru for a lot of the early 16th century, only giving up when Spain defeated the Inca Empire.
 
Note: I forgot that they also brought large quantities of weapons to combat the natives, which also makes a situation like the 1535 destruction of Spanish Buenos Aires not that likely
 
Based on what you said it was only a question of bad timing, if they have sailed either a day earlier or a day later the expedition would've gone through
Its definitely too late for a Portuguese Peru considering the conquest of the Inca is already under way, but a portuguese La Plata is a game changer...and hey at least in this timeline I would get to talk with the hermanos!
I wonder what the butterflies of not having him on São Paulo will be though, since thats where he went after the expedition failed
 
Based on what you said it was only a question of bad timing, if they have sailed either a day earlier or a day later the expedition would've gone through
Its definitely too late for a Portuguese Peru considering the conquest of the Inca is already under way, but a portuguese La Plata is a game changer...and hey at least in this timeline I would get to talk with the hermanos!
I wonder what the butterflies of not having him on São Paulo will be though, since thats where he went after the expedition failed
Well, most of his settlements in SP failed after he left anyway, so maybe it won't be too much of a game-changer
 
The main objective of the voyage was to reach modern-day Peru and find gold there, which had been a Portuguese obsession ever since the Spanish conquered the Aztecs.
But let's say that Afonso maintains a few hundred colonists in the Río de la Plata estuary and in modern-day Buenos Aires. What would be the long-term and short-term impacts of this expedition?
An that would be the main reason that the Spanish Court and the ones in Lima , would 'care' much and wouldn't let it pass overlooked. It, when news would reach the Spanish royal court it would mean war.
Also the Portuguese and the Spanish never cared that much about Tordesillas,
When it grant either crowns some key/rich or important enough territories it was cared and enforced. Like when the Spanish crew of the Nao Victoria (survivor from the Magallanes-Elcano expedition) were, imprisoned in the Portuguese controlled Cabo Verde, when was discovered that they came from the 'Spices Islands' (then Portuguese Moluccas).
Note: I forgot that they also brought large quantities of weapons to combat the natives, which also makes a situation like the 1535 destruction of Spanish Buenos Aires not that likely
Would be probably that
if they manage to survive both to the conditions on the terrain and somehow get better relations the natives than the OTL Spanish one) not that it would be hard). Then they still would have, in a few years to face to the incoming fleet of the Adelantado (military Governor tasked with the exploration and conquest of an assigned American territory) Pedro de Mendoza conquest and colonization expedition. It would, IMO, after they would know of each other or met and depending on both commandants decisions... It, at very least, may end with a very tense standoff, (if the settlers would be well entrenched/armed with enough artillery or it would end with a bloody battle and if defeated suffer a not not dissimilar fate to one inflicted on the French colonists of 'French Antartique', in what today is Brazil, by the Portuguese colonial forces.
Given, that the OTL Spanish fleet were heading towards the same or nearby spot to the one chosen to settle, in today's Argentine, Bs As province's Rio de la Plata coasts by TTL Portuguese colonists
 
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An that would be the main reason that the Spanish Court and the ones in Lima , would 'care' much and wouldn't let it pass overlooked. It, when news would reach the Spanish royal court it would mean war.

When it grant either crowns some key/rich or important enough territories it was cared and enforced. Like when the Spanish crew of the Nao Victoria (survivor from the Magallanes-Elcano expedition) were, imprisoned in the Portuguese controlled Cabo Verde, when was discovered that they came from the 'Spices Islands' (then Portuguese Moluccas).

Would be probably that
if they manage to survive both to the conditions on the terrain and somehow get better relations the natives than the OTL Spanish one) not that it would be hard). Then they still would have, in a few years to face to the incoming fleet of the Adelantado (military Governor tasked with the exploration and conquest of an assigned American territory) Pedro de Mendoza conquest and colonization expedition. It would, IMO, after they would know of each other or met and depending on both commandants decisions... It, at very least, may end with a very tense standoff, (if the settlers would be well entrenched/armed with enough artillery or it would end with a bloody battle and if defeated suffer a not not dissimilar fate to one inflicted on the French colonists of 'French Antartique', in what today is Brazil, by the Portuguese colonial forces.
Given, that the OTL Spanish fleet were heading towards the same or nearby spot to the one chosen to settle, in today's Argentine, Bs As province's Rio de la Plata coasts by TTL Portuguese colonists
If the Portuguese are able to establish a presence in the River Plate, there's a good chance they could come to an agreement with the Spanish on this matter, just like happened IOTL. If I recall correctly Pedro de Mendoza's expedition was in 1534, while the POD here is there years before that, meaning that the Portugurse colonists have time to prepare for a Spanish attack (if it even happens, by Portugal's own definition Buenos Aires was within its jurisdiction).
On Peru, I do think a conflict may be possible, but the Spanish conquest only began in 1532. If the Portuguese are able to establish a relationship of conquest, vassalage or partnership with the Inca, it would be harder for Spain to enforce its territorial claims.
 
If the Portuguese are able to establish a presence in the River Plate, there's a good chance they could come to an agreement with the Spanish on this matter, just like happened IOTL.
IMO, would be the same or similar chances that both Crown would be able or willing to reach any agreement that if would be the reverse situation and the Spanish would decided,for whatever reason, to settle, in either in the future location of S. S. of Bahia or in some far off island nearby of the Portuguese Moluccas.
If I recall correctly Pedro de Mendoza's expedition was in 1534, while the POD here is there years before that, meaning that the Portugurse colonists have time to prepare for a Spanish attack (if it even happens, by Portugal's own definition Buenos Aires was within its jurisdiction).
Hence, why I mentioned that the situation might vary, depending on as well entrenched the Portuguese would be there. But, even if they would have some years to settle, the geographic situation of Bs As, isn't naturally (miliary) defensible, per itself, so unless that they would have foreknowledge and dedicate their resources for a decades worth fortification works and they would have a some ships on port, it still wouldn't be enough, for avoid being bombed to oblivion from the sea and attacked by the Spanish landing war party. Ofc, that it still probably would be a large and bloody battle,( hence my mention/example of the short lived French attempt in Brazil). And that the Portuguese colonist would, perhaps, have the possibility to fall back/flee either to some of their smaller inland settlements,(if able to create/settle some bigger enough further inland) and/or to their eventual Natives Allies villages and keep resisting/wait/sent for help...
On Peru, I do think a conflict may be possible, but the Spanish conquest only began in 1532. If the Portuguese are able to establish a relationship of conquest, vassalage or partnership with the Inca, it would be harder for Spain to enforce its territorial claims.
In base to the time and effort spent IOTL,sailing, exploring and fighting with hostile natives or ending in dead ways, on the vain illusion that would be an easy/fast river way to connect from the Atlantic with the Peru. Even if they would have the resources for both built and fortifying their new settlement,(and without to recur to forced/enslaved native workforce). It wouldn't be possible nor they would have enough time, in the few years span until contact/be discovered by the P. de Mendoza led Spanish expedition to explore/take the lands already granted to him,(at his request) by the Emperor/King (Charles I of Spain)...

Edit. Also, if the Spanish would be defeated or if they won a phyric or inconclusive like victory. Then, they may chose to search for and settle in the left/opposite margin of the Río de la Plata, so, if so, they (ironically enough) would perhaps, either chose to settle in Colonia (Del Sacramento) or in the natural port of the Bay of Montevideo.
 
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Edit. Also, if the Spanish would be defeated or if they won a phyric or inconclusive like victory. Then, they may chose to search for and settle in the left/opposite margin of the Río de la Plata, so, if so, they (ironically enough) would perhaps, either chose to settle in Colonia (Del Sacramento) or in the natural port of the Bay of Montevid
It would be hilarious having Colonia be established by the Spanish ITTL to face off against a Portuguese Buenos Aires
 
In the long run, a Portuguese colonized Argentina and/ or Uruguay, if Portuguese colonized Brazil wasn't butterflied, would share the same fate as Brazil and (Argentina, Uruguay or both depending on their decolonization) would, post-decolonization, join an independent Brazil, reducing wars and dreadnought competition between Brazil on one side and Argentina and/ or Uruguay on the other. Paraguay, if not butterflied, wouldn't have incentives to support itself and Uruguay against Argentina and Brazil, butterflying the Paraguayan War. Any Argentinian economic troubles would also be butterflied or burdening Brazil instead. Assuming Argentina, Uruguay and Brazil would still decolonize.
 
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