WI: Protestantism remains a largely German phenomenon

[Fabius Maximus]

Let's say that England remains Catholic, with one of the usual PODs (Henry and Catherine having a son, Queen Mary having a child, etc.). Without the English government supporting the Protestant cause north of the border, Scotland remains Catholic too. Let's say that the Scandinavian countries likewise stay Catholic (although I don't know enough about Scandinavian history to name a good POD). For the rest, Protestantism spreads like it did IOTL -- so the Netherlands, parts of north Germany, and some parts of Switzerland become Protestant countries; outside these areas, you get some Protestant populations (such as the Huguenots in France), but the countries as a whole remain Catholic.

What would happen as a result of this? Would the Protestant states be able to maintain their faith, or would they be compelled to return to the Catholic fold at some point? Would they still get support from outside powers (the Dutch from England, the Germans from Sweden and France)? Also, how would historiography regard the Reformation? Would it still be regarded as a turning point in European history which shattered the unity of Western Christendom, or would it be treated as more of a footnote in history, like the Cathar and Waldensian sects IOTL?

 

[Comte de Geneve]

I don't see the Scandinavian states remaining Catholic but that is not significant at the time. If Protestantism is not crushed during the 1520's it's going to survive, not become Cathars or Waldensians. A scenario where Protestantism (Lutheran and Calvinist) reaches the extent in the OP it is not going to be rooted out. A twist on this would be if Henry, blessed with a male heir and a spare by Queen Catherine, remains a militant Catholic and takes the title Defender of the Faith Literally. In this scenario he is still on best of terms with Spain and could (not sure if it is possible), raise an army to work in conjunction with Charles V to invade the heretical states in the Empire and crush the Reformation. And of course, just because country is Catholic does not automatically make them an enemy of the Protestant States.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

In this scenario he is still on best of terms with Spain and could (not sure if it is possible), raise an army to work in conjunction with Charles V to invade the heretical states in the Empire and crush the Reformation.

TBH I'm not sure it would make much difference, England was a second-rate power during this period and hadn't won any major battles against European opponents since the Hundred Years' War.

And of course, just because country is Catholic does not automatically make them an enemy of the Protestant States.

True, as the example of France shows.

Are there any other states that might want to support the German Protestants? Sweden, perhaps, or England? (I know IOTL England and Spain were on good terms until the King's Great Matter, but as Spain becomes the dominant European power and France becomes embroiled in the Wars of Religion, England might begin to fear Spain and look for ways of weakening it.)

 

[Fabius Maximus]

How would this POD affect Church-state relations in Europe? Would something akin to Westphalian sovereignty still develop, or would the more "entangled" relationship found in the middle ages persist?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

@Atterdag @Milites @Zulfurium @isabella @HortenseMancini @VVD0D95 @BlueFlowwer @FalconHonour @Awkwardvulture @RedKing

 

[Nuraghe]

How would this POD affect Church-state relations in Europe? Would something akin to Westphalian sovereignty still develop, or would the more "entangled" relationship found in the middle ages persist?

well it would depend on the strength of the state (see France which came out strengthened or the Spanish inquisition which was a stretching of the arm / concession by the pope to the Catholic Monarchs in exchange for aid to expel the French from Italy) and how the papacy emerges from the post-Avignon captivity decline (its power was declining, and its influence barely surpassed the Alps from a political point of view in European power games, so much so that even the Italian popes ended up being pawns of the powers, let alone the idea of a foreign pope), perhaps the emperor decides to grant land in the HRE to England in exchange for military aid (you know Henry VIII's ego, his eternal contest over who is stronger among him, Francis and Charles is the manias of trying to make his son emperor perhaps (since Henry III was believed to be reincarnated, and in 1519 he too had run for the title, even taking one vote) I could see an even closer relationship between the papacy and England in exchange for concession and balance between the valois and the Habsburgs, perhaps we will see an English pope again (certainly an increase in foreign cardinals to counter the French and pro-French faction)
I would argue that we may see many diplomatic relations similar to those between the warring factions in the Hussite wars

 

[Nuraghe]

another thing to take into consideration would be the international religious orders such as the Knights of Malta (which were undergoing a very rapid renaissance), how they would function in the territories that had become Protestant or would they be suppressed (well in OTL they survived but here perhaps they would be seen with strong mixed suspicion to xenophobia)

 

[twovultures]

Based on a Henry VIII POD, I agree with the other posters that Protestantism would be ineradicable in Germany, and the ball has probably already started rolling for a Scandinavian conversion.

On a global level, however, Protestantism will be much, much reduced ITTL. The British Empire was, IMHO, the largest engine of Protestant conversion in history, and without it there is much, much less of a presence of Protestant Christianity. Assuming a similar trajectory of history ITTL, the Scandinavian powers simply do not have the colonial power to take control of any significant population that could be converted to Lutheranism. The Dutch did have a century of great colonial power, but during the height of their empire IOTL they were not nearly as willing or able to convert the peoples they came into contact with to Calvinism as rival powers were willing to convert them to Catholicism. By the time a real missionary movement began to pick up steam in the Protestant world IOTL, the Dutch Empire was eclipsed by the French and British Empires.

As a result, most of the "Global South" ITTL will resemble the religious makeup of today's Latin America, overwhelmingly Catholic with Protestant minority of about 10-20%, fuelled by Northern European missionaries converting people disaffected with the dominant Catholic power structure.

 

[Nuraghe]

Based on a Henry VIII POD, I agree with the other posters that Protestantism would be ineradicable in Germany, and the ball has probably already started rolling for a Scandinavian conversion.

On a global level, however, Protestantism will be much, much reduced ITTL. The British Empire was, IMHO, the largest engine of Protestant conversion in history, and without it there is much, much less of a presence of Protestant Christianity. Assuming a similar trajectory of history ITTL, the Scandinavian powers simply do not have the colonial power to take control of any significant population that could be converted to Lutheranism. The Dutch did have a century of great colonial power, but during the height of their empire IOTL they were not nearly as willing or able to convert the peoples they came into contact with to Calvinism as rival powers were willing to convert them to Catholicism. By the time a real missionary movement began to pick up steam in the Protestant world IOTL, the Dutch Empire was eclipsed by the French and British Empires.

As a result, most of the "Global South" ITTL will resemble the religious makeup of today's Latin America, overwhelmingly Catholic with Protestant minority of about 10-20%, fuelled by Northern European missionaries converting people disaffected with the dominant Catholic power structure.

well in north east germany there protestantism is there to stay for sure, i would be more dubious in hasse or swabia ( Habsburg original Land ) and lower saxony electorate ( severinius of saxony )

 

[Viriato]

In Norway and Iceland Protestantism was imposed from above and the Catholic faith seemed to have lingered on in both countries for at least a few generations, particularly in rural areas. If Charles V is more of a Catholic zealot and assists his niece Dorothea of Denmark into reclaiming the Danish throne and Denmark, Norway and Iceland are brought back under the Catholic faith. A war with Sweden would no doubt ensue, but perhaps this becomes another area in which imperial aid is offered.

 

[Jürgen]

In Norway and Iceland Protestantism was imposed from above and the Catholic faith seemed to have lingered on in both countries for at least a few generations, particularly in rural areas. If Charles V is more of a Catholic zealot and assists his niece Dorothea of Denmark into reclaiming the Danish throne and Denmark, Norway and Iceland are brought back under the Catholic faith. A war with Sweden would no doubt ensue, but perhaps this becomes another area in which imperial aid is offered.

There were plenty of support for Protestantism in Iceland, the last Catholic bishop of Holar was captured, and his forces defeated by a royalist Lutheran chieftain and his followers. Lutheranism was not just something forced down on the Icelanders by the Danish crown, it also had domestic support. In fact, if we look at the religious strife, it was the smaller bishopric of Holar, which fought for Iceland to stay Catholic.

 

[Neoteros]

A related POD: what if Protestantism still takes hold outside of Germany... but Calvinism never develops, so most Protestant churches would be born as royal takeovers of pre-existing Catholic churches (as in England), or as Lutheran, or Lutheran-adjacent churches (as in Germany).

 

[Tibi088]

Im not sure how big the change would be on political level:
Take for example France. It had no problem allying with the Ottomans against the catholic Habsburgs and in the 30 years war was supporting the protestants throughout.

 

[Tibi088]

How do you think this would change the dynamics on the british isles if the english remained catholic in relation especially to the irish? I mean their religious differences were the cause of a lot of their problems - though far from all.

 

[Maburo]

How do you think this would change the dynamics on the british isles if the english remained catholic in relation especially the irish? I mean their religious differences were the cause of a lot of their problems - though far from all.

How a catholic England would affect Ireland was one of the first questions that crossed my head!

 

[Comte de Geneve]

No Uster Plantations for one thing, but for England Ireland will remain a subject nation to be exploited and ruled from London and controlled by the Anglo-Irish aristocracy. Prejudice against and suppression of the Gaelic speaking peasantry is not changed.

 

[John I of Brazil]

As a result, most of the "Global South" ITTL will resemble the religious makeup of today's Latin America, overwhelmingly Catholic with Protestant minority of about 10-20%, fuelled by Northern European missionaries converting people disaffected with the dominant Catholic power structure.

I don't know if these protestant conversions would still happen, or at least in the way they did in our timeline, because the protestant churches that came and prospered in Latin America are mostly from pentecostal and neo-pentecostal American origin. More traditional, "european" denominations don't make as much success. You can see here, in the demographics section. I don't know if European churches could mimick the evangelicals' success in an alternative timeline.

 

[herkles]

How do you think this would change the dynamics on the british isles if the english remained catholic in relation especially to the irish? I mean their religious differences were the cause of a lot of their problems - though far from all.

The big thing that this changes is the nature of the various rebellions that occur after the english reformation. Wars like the Nine Years War, the rebellion of 1641, the Confederate wars, the Desmond Rebellions, and so on all had major religious elements, if not out right motivated by religious issues. Also adding to this were the three main peoples of Ireland at the time. The old Irish, old english and new english. The Old Irish are the various Gaelic nobility, the Old English were the Hiberno-Normans who came over during the Medieval Norman Invansion of Ireland, and the New English were the English and also Scottish who came with the plantations.

With the British Isles remaining Catholic this changes things. There likely wouldn't be the plantation schemes that resulted in the New English as one of the driving forces for that was to turn Ireland into a protestant part of the kingdom. You probably would see the Hiberno-Normans, the Old English remaining much more loyal to the English government than in OTL. in OTL the old english by and large remained catholics and thus made common cause with the Gaelic Irish on grounds of religion. Now its possible that the Hiberno-Normans could still ally with the Gaelic Irish as they had their own identity separate from the English.

It is possible that this could lead to an Ireland more loyal to the British government and less exploited; say similar to the status of Scotland. The religious angle really did divide them greatly and by the time it was waning, the ideas of scientific racism were begining. But also throughout that period as I mentioned above, there were a lot of rebellions, a lot of them that wouldn't happen. An Ireland that doesn't revolt as much, might help relations.

Of course its just as possible that many more rebellions pop up up in this timeline. and that divides irish-british. There already were laws on the books, though not really enforced, that were explotive against the Irish people.

One minor thing to note is that the Catholic church wouldn't have to make new churches throughout Ireland. Since most of them were taken over in OTL and given to the Protestant Church of Ireland. but with England being catholic that wouldn't happen. A lot of the Catholic churches IIRC are actually rather recent coming about from the 19th century after Catholic emancipation.

 

[Tibi088]

The big thing that this changes is the nature of the various rebellions that occur after the english reformation. Wars like the Nine Years War, the rebellion of 1641, the Confederate wars, the Desmond Rebellions, and so on all had major religious elements, if not out right motivated by religious issues. Also adding to this were the three main peoples of Ireland at the time. The old Irish, old english and new english. The Old Irish are the various Gaelic nobility, the Old English were the Hiberno-Normans who came over during the Medieval Norman Invansion of Ireland, and the New English were the English and also Scottish who came with the plantations.

With the British Isles remaining Catholic this changes things. There likely wouldn't be the plantation schemes that resulted in the New English as one of the driving forces for that was to turn Ireland into a protestant part of the kingdom. You probably would see the Hiberno-Normans, the Old English remaining much more loyal to the English government than in OTL. in OTL the old english by and large remained catholics and thus made common cause with the Gaelic Irish on grounds of religion. Now its possible that the Hiberno-Normans could still ally with the Gaelic Irish as they had their own identity separate from the English.

It is possible that this could lead to an Ireland more loyal to the British government and less exploited; say similar to the status of Scotland. The religious angle really did divide them greatly and by the time it was waning, the ideas of scientific racism were begining. But also throughout that period as I mentioned above, there were a lot of rebellions, a lot of them that wouldn't happen. An Ireland that doesn't revolt as much, might help relations.

Of course its just as possible that many more rebellions pop up up in this timeline. and that divides irish-british. There already were laws on the books, though not really enforced, that were explotive against the Irish people.

One minor thing to note is that the Catholic church wouldn't have to make new churches throughout Ireland. Since most of them were taken over in OTL and given to the Protestant Church of Ireland. but with England being catholic that wouldn't happen. A lot of the Catholic churches IIRC are actually rather recent coming about from the 19th century after Catholic emancipation.

I only know that in the 19th century the lack and delay of catholic emancipation was a huge blow to british-irish relations and to the acceptance of the act of union on the irish part. Im not sure if butterflying the religious aspects of the conflict would be enough to entirely change. there is also your point of a lot of preexisting bad blood missing from less rebellions.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

well in north east germany there protestantism is there to stay for sure, i would be more dubious in hasse or swabia ( Habsburg original Land ) and lower saxony electorate ( severinius of saxony )

Butterfly the deaths at Sievershausen and Brunswick would be Catholic too. Or, you can just let Eric of Kahlenberg, a Protestant convert to Catholicism, inherit the Brunswick lands and leave legitimate issue (knock out Heinrich II's Protestant son before he has kids, and Eric inherits). As ruler of a far larger area, the pope (at the emperor's urging) likely grants him an annulment from Sidonie of Saxony earlier