WI: Tsar Alexander II. killed in 1866?

[Salvador79]

What if the Russian Tsar Alexander II. had been killed in the assassination attempt of 1866?
His agrarian reforms / emancipation of the peasantry should have been entrenched enough by then not to be reversed...?
What about Alex2's military reforms? Would Alexander III., ascending to the throne at the age of 21, be able to strengthen the Russian Army to the extent that Alex2 did, which enabled the Russian victory in the Russo-Turkish War, which changed the landscape on the Balkans with far-reaching consequences?
Alex2 ended his moderate liberalisation policies after the failed assassination attempt and instituted radical censorship and toughened up on political oppression. How would things have developed under a younger Alex3, who certainly was a reactionary, too, but much less experienced?
Does it change anything at all, or is the course of Russian policy in the later 19th century predetermined by structural factors to the extent that the man at the helm has little influence over it?

 

[DJ03]

Was AIII that much of a reactionary at this point? I believed he became one after the unsuccess of the russo-turkish war (which was indeed won, but at great human cost and for very little gain)

 

[LordYam]

AIII was influenced by a reactionary tutor so that probably would have happened regardless

 

[Salvador79]

AIII was influenced by a reactionary tutor so that probably would have happened regardless

I think so, too.

So, no change?

 

[DJ03]

I think so, too.

So, no change?

I wouldn't say no change. AII dieing earlier maybe means an earlier return to protectionism which would be beneficial to russian domestic industry

 

[Mikestone8]

Could have mattered in foreign policy. Iirc wAlex III was less pro-Prussian than his father, so Bismarck might be less successful.

 

[Atterdag]

Could have mattered in foreign policy. Iirc wAlex III was less pro-Prussian than his father, so Bismarck might be less successful.

The timing is especially auspicious given that the seven weeks' war started 2 months after the attempted assassination iotl.

 

[Lalli]

AIII's Russia would be economically more developed but not liberal at all. Might be that AIII not reverse so much reforms of his father as in OTL but he would still keep things like they mostly were in early 1860's. He might make more miltary reforms on Russian army so it would be more succesful against Ottomans. And even if AIII can't do any more than his father did, the tsar might decide not pick a fight with Ottomans. This would change things on Balkans.

Anyway, AIII might die earlier than in OTL due stress of his job and his son is going to be even lesser unprepared to be tsar.

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

@alexmilman

 

[alexmilman]

@alexmilman

IMHO the retroactive projection of a character does not make too much sense. AFAIK, in OTL in his early 20s AA was not noticed for any strong political views besides having certain common sense lacking in his more ideologically-driven father.

His later views had been shaped by a combination of the factors which included failure of his father’s liberal reforms with a resulting wave of a terrorism and demonstrated “ungratefulness” of the “intelligencia”, bad Russian economic situation (at least partially due to the free market approach), extremely ineptly handled war (which reflected badly on Milytin, his reform and liberalism in general) , complaints of a landed nobility and, last but not least, scandalous “family matters”. Pobedonostsev was teaching him jurisprudence (aka, was one of the tutors of the heir to the throne, not “the tutor”) and only starting from 1865 (before this he was teaching his elder brother, Nicholas) and permanently moved to St.Petersburg in 1866 so there was no time for him to develop OTL-like close relation.

Pobedonostsev, Meschersky & Co were influential because they were saying what he wanted to hear and in 1866 most of the things they were objecting to simply were not in place and the liberal reforms were not, yet, thoroughly compromised (to a degree forcing AII to start rolling some of them back).

As for relations with Germany, attitudes of AIII were to a noticeable degree influenced by two factors: Danish marriage automatically implied certain degree of anti-German influence (but this marriage was arranged by his father who knew this quite well) and Berlin Congress in which Russia was considering itself “betrayed” by Germany (instead of blaming idiotic policy of AII and Gorchakov). Change this framework and relations could be different.