Say that the Revolutionary War goes better for the Americans and they manage to get Canada at the peace treaty. However, for whatever butterfly-related reason (maybe Mexico is stronger and more stable for some reason), the Mexican-American War never happens, meaning that the US doesn't take OTL's Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, Califormia, et al. Whad difference would this make to the US' development compared to OTL? How would the slavery issue play out? Would the US c. 2023 be stronger or weaker than its OTL counterpart?