Lets not bother about how (that's a very difficult kettle of fish since neither Democrats or Republicans would be fans of losing their 'special snowflake big tent' status), but how would USA evolve politically if they had turned into some variant of Proportional Representation in the late 40s?
WI: USA goes Proportional Democracy
- Thread starter Sian
- Start date
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
more attention to both the Libertarians and the Greens,
probably a party which was socially liberal and fiscally conservative,
maybe a party which tries to matter-of-factly critique the corporate state and provide doable alternates and experiments ? ?
a party which is all about high-tech and spending big money on the space program ? ? ?
a party which rails against the Walmartization of America and tries to describe real conditions faced by real people. "And people who aspire to the Middle Class" becomes one of their slogans. Maybe similar to several of the above, but their own flavor ? ?
a party all about home schooling and unschooling,
a party which becomes the de facto party of disability rights. And perhaps the Aspergers-Autism Spectrum catches the public's imagination as something which is both a disability and a difference. Yes, that's what we've been trying to explain to you.
a party all about entrepreneurship which emphasizes that it's usually about Mickey Mouse ticky-tack state and local regulations. And which really emphasizes that 80% of new businesses fail (typically because fixed expenses eat you alive) , and think it's irresponsible not to emphasize this fact front and center.
and plus a whole slew of kooksville parties!!
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And the resulting coalition governments? Sometimes more effective, sometimes less.
probably a party which was socially liberal and fiscally conservative,
maybe a party which tries to matter-of-factly critique the corporate state and provide doable alternates and experiments ? ?
a party which is all about high-tech and spending big money on the space program ? ? ?
a party which rails against the Walmartization of America and tries to describe real conditions faced by real people. "And people who aspire to the Middle Class" becomes one of their slogans. Maybe similar to several of the above, but their own flavor ? ?
a party all about home schooling and unschooling,
a party which becomes the de facto party of disability rights. And perhaps the Aspergers-Autism Spectrum catches the public's imagination as something which is both a disability and a difference. Yes, that's what we've been trying to explain to you.
a party all about entrepreneurship which emphasizes that it's usually about Mickey Mouse ticky-tack state and local regulations. And which really emphasizes that 80% of new businesses fail (typically because fixed expenses eat you alive) , and think it's irresponsible not to emphasize this fact front and center.
and plus a whole slew of kooksville parties!!
=========
And the resulting coalition governments? Sometimes more effective, sometimes less.
The PoD was in 1940s, I doubt there would even be a Green Party or a Libertarian Party to begin with, and when there is, there votes would probably be taken out by pre-existing third parties. I think you are probably estimating a few too many parties, I think several of them would merge with one another. Once things had died down after an initial realignment, I reckon you would see
-A social democratic party, composed chiefly of progressive democrats, who aim to create a welfare state along european lines, and are likely a pro-civil rights party
-A more centrist, more pro capitalist, and somewhat socially liberal party(in comparison to the right at least)
-A right wing party mainly incorporating dixiecrats, that is mainly defined by its pro segregationism, which in time might develop into something like the modern republican right
You might also get a few more minor parties if the system doesnt require high thresholds, probably some kind of communist/broad tent leftist party coalition capable of winning a seat or two. A few single issue parties are also possible, probably an agrarian Party, and perhaps a racial equality party too whose support is concentrated among ethnic minorities, particularly African Americans. In a few decades, perhaps some of the modern third parties might make minor breakthroughs, but I'd imagine they would be mostly squeezed out in favour of the more radical on there side of spectrum parties that already exist with considerable representation.
In the late 40s the Greens and Libertarians weren't even a twinkle in anyones eye.
What's likely to happen is a big boost to Henry Wallace and the 2nd Progressive Party. And that's going to split the Democrats. You'll end up with a three party system - center-right GOP, centerist/center-left Progressives, and far-right Democrats. The GOP will be pro small business and civil rights. The Democrats will be strongly anti-civil rights, pro-states rights, right-wing populist, and the most prominently/explucitly Christian.
What's likely to happen is a big boost to Henry Wallace and the 2nd Progressive Party. And that's going to split the Democrats. You'll end up with a three party system - center-right GOP, centerist/center-left Progressives, and far-right Democrats. The GOP will be pro small business and civil rights. The Democrats will be strongly anti-civil rights, pro-states rights, right-wing populist, and the most prominently/explucitly Christian.
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
read right over the starting date POD.
and I quite agree, in late 40s Greens and Libertarians wouldn't even be twinkling in anyone's political eye (maybe a few wild and experimental writers)
and I quite agree, in late 40s Greens and Libertarians wouldn't even be twinkling in anyone's political eye (maybe a few wild and experimental writers)
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
Aspie-Autism Spectrum rights might be the next civil rights movement, the right now civil rights movement being transgend rights. In both these cases, and a lot more besides, the right to be authentically oneself.
I think I'm probably Spectrum myself. It explains more about myself by far than anything else. But people my age, I'm now 53, are going to tend not to be diagnosed. Really think it should be a personal choice anyway.
I think I'm probably Spectrum myself. It explains more about myself by far than anything else. But people my age, I'm now 53, are going to tend not to be diagnosed. Really think it should be a personal choice anyway.
GeographyDude
Gone Fishin'
We're mainly concerned with economic growth, only secondarily with distribution of income among persons (current DEMOCRATIC PARTY).
We're mainly concerned with distribution of income between government and private sector, and only secondarily with economic growth (current REPUBLICAN PARTY).
and at least two other possibilities which no party is covering!
We're mainly concerned with distribution of income between government and private sector, and only secondarily with economic growth (current REPUBLICAN PARTY).
and at least two other possibilities which no party is covering!
Part of the problem with proportional representation in the US Federal government is the integrity of the States. No State would be willing to share its Congressional representation with another. Elimination of district boundaries within the States is possible, though. So, the smallest States would still be single-member districts, and the larger States would be more proportional.
What would be really interesting is the Callenbach plan: Sortition for the House of Representatives. In a sense that is the ultimate in "proportional representation" but it also renders political parties as we know them somewhat less relevant. (Callenbach was for keeping an elected Senate and Presidency, so parties would still have some relevance.)
The problem is easily addressed by removing the cap on congress. Note that the exact same bill that caps congressionsal size (tbe apportionment act of 1929) allows for at large representatives. At a minimum, we ought to apply the so called Wyoming Rule, or better (IMHO) an apportionment more closely in line with the intended First Amendment.
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/its-time-to-increase-the-size-of-the-house/
Personal opinion aside, it wouldn't be terribly difficult to tuck a provision along these lines in to what's quite likely to be a constitutuonal amendment in the first place...
What kind of proportional representation?
Using STV would solve the problem of having to have multiple states within on electoral constituency - any state with just one Representative elects theirs by de facto AV, whilst the states with lots of seats (NY, California, Texas, etc.) can be divided into multiple multi-seat districts.
Using STV would solve the problem of having to have multiple states within on electoral constituency - any state with just one Representative elects theirs by de facto AV, whilst the states with lots of seats (NY, California, Texas, etc.) can be divided into multiple multi-seat districts.
Question if you go proportional what happens in the Senate if proportionality comes about would they be selected by percentage of the National votes for the various parties. That would not go down well with the populations of the smaller states who would be left with only one or two or three representatives and no Senator to represent their interests in the Senate. You would unite the populations of the smaller states against proportionality. This is the question that would make or break proportionality.
Traditionally, "Proportional Representation" only applies to the lower house of a bicameral government. The Senate would remain as is.
Or each state's senators either be elected (a) at the same time, or (b) under AV.
Do you also propose replacing the Capitol with a Congressional Stadium?
I doubt that the US HoR will have as many seats as the National People's Congress.
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If the UK can fit 3 times as many in Wesminster, congress should be fine. If the Wyoming rule is applied, you get close to Parliament's size.
A ratio in line with what the founders intended (congressional district of a maximum of 50,000 people) would be about double the size of the NPC. Today's districts are, on average, roughly 600,000 - more than 10 times that.
Devvy
Donor
I modelled this using the 2014 elections, using each state (and territory) as a mixed member constituency and using D'Hondt and the current amount of Representatives they currently elect to Congress (sourced from: http://historycms.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/2014election/)
Result?
Democrat: 225
Republican: 212
Libertarian: 1
Others: 2
A lot closer then I thought it would be, although it also surprised me that a Libertarian and 2 others got in as it stood.
My guess going forwards (as a complete non expert in the subject matter)? Given that Libertarians evidently can get in on their own 2 feet following some PR, I guess some Republicans will drift off in to Libertarian-land, increasing that party, but allowing the main Republican party to drift more towards the centre (maybe free market, socially liberal esque?). They will probably pick up some votes from the Democrats in doing do. Democrats probably stay somewhat more united, but probably struggle to stay united with a more vocal-left (ie. the Bernie) threatening to peel off.
Result?
Democrat: 225
Republican: 212
Libertarian: 1
Others: 2
A lot closer then I thought it would be, although it also surprised me that a Libertarian and 2 others got in as it stood.
My guess going forwards (as a complete non expert in the subject matter)? Given that Libertarians evidently can get in on their own 2 feet following some PR, I guess some Republicans will drift off in to Libertarian-land, increasing that party, but allowing the main Republican party to drift more towards the centre (maybe free market, socially liberal esque?). They will probably pick up some votes from the Democrats in doing do. Democrats probably stay somewhat more united, but probably struggle to stay united with a more vocal-left (ie. the Bernie) threatening to peel off.
Considering that the POD is 65+ years prior, using 2014 data gives a very skewed idea of the turn out - especially since the LP won't exist for another 10+ years OTL.
I think there would be very little support 40/41 a war is coming,41/45 war/45/50 people were happy they had just won a war that could never be copied. A good economy and the fact life is good why change. The earliest it may work is the late 60's and the 70'.