WI William III lives longer than Anne?

[Gonzaga]

As says in the tin. WI William's horse doesn't stumble into that molehill and the king lives to 1714 or 1715, surviving Anne? I don't think it's unlikely, as he would be around 65 by then, and he had relatives who reached similar ages: his grandfather Frederic Henry (63), his grandmother Amalia (73), his grandmother Henrietta (60), his aunt Albertine (62) and his uncle James II (almost 68).

How would a living William III affect the War of the Spanish Succession? And the Act of Union with Scotland?How British politics could be changed? Also, once Anne's husband dies, would the old king try to remarry to secure a clear succession, or would he just accept the Hannoverians?

 

[The Professor]

I have a feeling he'd groom one of the Palatine brood to succeed though I have nothing to base that on!
The problem would be his relationship with the Scottish and English Parliaments wasn't always the best. He may scupper an OTL union. Though ironically this could lead to a more equitable relationship with the Irish Parliament later on. Triple union from the onset?

 

[JonasResende]

I have a feeling he'd groom one of the Palatine brood to succeed though I have nothing to base that on!
The problem would be his relationship with the Scottish and English Parliaments wasn't always the best. He may scupper an OTL union. Though ironically this could lead to a more equitable relationship with the Irish Parliament later on. Triple union from the onset?

There are none of the Palatine brood left besides the dowager Madame, the duc d'Orléans or the duchess of Lorraine, closer to home, if Victor Amadeus doesn't screw the pooch, his wife has a very good chance to be queen, except for the fact that William personally and politically disliked the man due to his constantly shifting loyalties.

That said, the Electress Sophia did attempt to convince William during his OTL lifetime to adopt James III as his successor before the Act of Settlement was passed. Maybe with Anne no longer being the fly in the ointment and William being sorely disillusioned with England, he decides 'to hell with it' and finds a way to get them to accept that their next king will be James III.

 

[mcdnab]

Well the Act of Settlement was passed in the final year of William's life (after the death of Anne's son the Duke of Gloucester) and he gave it his assent - it did not of course apply to Scotland. But that would indicate that he wasn't too bothered about what would happen (by then he was still an unmarried widower and had been for some time)

Assuming even under a surviving William the Scots Parliament tries to push its own Act of Security (which in OTL stated the Scots would chose their own successor to Anne) - then the same circumstances that led to Union will exist.

 

[Janprimus]

If Anne were to die relatively quickly without leaving issue after Mary passes away. Perhaps under these circumstances the king-stadtholder can be convinced to take another bride. IOTL with Anne being around and with at that point enough children to have secure succession, which will also be ahead of any children William III had from a second marriage. If William III would have been able to also get any of his potential future issue from a 2nd marriage ahead of Anne and her issue, then that would have also been a good helpful to encourage William III to re-marry.

 

[wietze]

enough children to have secure succession, which will also be ahead of any children William III had from a second marriage. If William III would have been able to also get any of his potential future issue from a 2nd marriage ahead of Anne and her issue, then that would have also been a good helpful to encourage William III to re-marry.

are you certain? wasn't william 3rd in line of succession by himself, thus any of his children would be in line before any of Anne's children

 

[Janprimus]

are you certain? wasn't william 3rd in line of succession by himself, thus any of his children would be in line before any of Anne's children

The line of succession, excluding the Catholic issue of James II was Mary and her issue, Anne and her issue, William III and his issue from a potential 2nd marriage, unless Parliament decides to changes things, the only way for children of William III to be ahead of Anne would be for William III and Mary II to have children.

 

[The Professor]

The line of succession, excluding the Catholic issue of James II was Mary and her issue, Anne and her issue, William III and his issue from a potential 2nd marriage, unless Parliament decides to changes things, the only way for children of William III to be ahead of Anne would be for William III and Mary II to have children.

Yes. The only way William stayed King after Mary's death OTL was the settlements bringing him and Mary to the throne.
That does make me think William will be thinking a lot about the succession and various pressures on him as regards heirs.
That said if the pressure is thus off Anne TTL she may have a successful pregnancy

 

[Gonzaga]

Any idea of how a longer reign for William III would affect the War of the Spanish Succession? Different commanders for the English forces, maybe?

Also, what could happen in Netherlands?

 

[Emperor Constantine]

First off, I don't see William living all that long. He was frequently ill throughout his life, suffering from asthma, made worse by the English climate. So I doubt he'd live past 1705 at the latest. Second, succession wise the Hannovarians would still be the heirs. After all it was William who supported the Act of Settlement that made the Electress the next in line. Third, William was probably sterile, so remarrying would have no real affect (he had a mistress, Elizabeth Villiers, from 1680 to 1695 and they had no children, not even a pregnancy. Elizabeth married later on had had three daughters rapidly).

Finally, as to politics, that's hard to say. The union between England and Scotland was going to happen sooner or later, especially once the Scots started to make sounds over selecting a different King after William/Anne's death. The Spanish Succession war would still be going on and England would still devote a large amount of resources to the fight.

Actually, the real place things could be affected would be the Dutch Republic, not England. A longer living William could lead to the smooth succession of Johan Willem Friso, Stadtholder of Friesland and Groningen to the Stadtholdership of the rest of the Provinces and the other offices William III held. A longer lived William means he might be able to have Friso proclaimed/ pre-elected as the next Stadtholder. But really that's the only main affect I can think of.

 

[Vitruvius]

Actually, the real place things could be affected would be the Dutch Republic, not England. A longer living William could lead to the smooth succession of Johan Willem Friso, Stadtholder of Friesland and Groningen to the Stadtholdership of the rest of the Provinces and the other offices William III held. A longer lived William means he might be able to have Friso proclaimed/ pre-elected as the next Stadtholder. But really that's the only main affect I can think of.

I'd agree with that. John William Friso most likely wouldn't die like OTL so the Dutch might have a strong leader to follow William. Assuming William lives longer than Anne, so 1714-15, the whole end of the War of the Spanish Succession also changes. William wouldn't countenance the backdoor negotiations with France that Britain engaged in. So Britain would hew more to the OTL Dutch line which means a tougher time negotiating a peace with France. With more firm English support its possible that campaign of 1712 is more favorable to the allies, if they win at Denain, for example, they could push into northern France and get better terms from Louis XIV.

Not sure what they could get, Britian got pretty much all it wanted OTL. But Louis would have to recognize whatever succession William has established in Britain by that point. The Dutch probably gain more border forts, Mauberge and Conde-sur-l'Escaut for sure, and maybe even Lille, which would be a real coup. The French probably retrocede Strasbourg to the HRE, along with Landau to Austria and maybe abandon/dismantle Saarlouis. I'm not sure William would insist on the Habsburg Succession in Spain at that point, and it would be tough to get. The Italian settlement could vary, I'm not sure how keen William would be on allotting compensation to the Savoys (OTL Britian insisted on their gaining Sicily as a reward for their 'loyalty').

On the other hand if William held the extreme OTL Austrian position and refused to make peace on any terms but complete French submission then the war could continue until he dies in say late 1714. Then it would get real messy, with a potential leadership crisis on the British side, surely a French backed Jacobite rising. Any number of things could then happen.

 

[Gonzaga]

I'd agree with that. John William Friso most likely wouldn't die like OTL so the Dutch might have a strong leader to follow William. Assuming William lives longer than Anne, so 1714-15, the whole end of the War of the Spanish Succession also changes. William wouldn't countenance the backdoor negotiations with France that Britain engaged in. So Britain would hew more to the OTL Dutch line which means a tougher time negotiating a peace with France. With more firm English support its possible that campaign of 1712 is more favorable to the allies, if they win at Denain, for example, they could push into northern France and get better terms from Louis XIV.

Not sure what they could get, Britian got pretty much all it wanted OTL. But Louis would have to recognize whatever succession William has established in Britain by that point. The Dutch probably gain more border forts, Mauberge and Conde-sur-l'Escaut for sure, and maybe even Lille, which would be a real coup. The French probably retrocede Strasbourg to the HRE, along with Landau to Austria and maybe abandon/dismantle Saarlouis. I'm not sure William would insist on the Habsburg Succession in Spain at that point, and it would be tough to get. The Italian settlement could vary, I'm not sure how keen William would be on allotting compensation to the Savoys (OTL Britian insisted on their gaining Sicily as a reward for their 'loyalty').

On the other hand if William held the extreme OTL Austrian position and refused to make peace on any terms but complete French submission then the war could continue until he dies in say late 1714. Then it would get real messy, with a potential leadership crisis on the British side, surely a French backed Jacobite rising. Any number of things could then happen.

Well, regarding the war, there is the chance that William wouldn't make Marlborough the commander of the English troops.

 

[Vitruvius]

True, I suppose Marlborough might not be given command. It would be a different, perhaps shorter war, if 1704 was a disaster for the allies in Germany.

I wonder if Marlborough could be given a lesser command, like perhaps in Spain. If he could have some success invading from Portugal in 1703-04. Say he defeats Berwick decisively and takes Cadiz. Then could he be tapped in an emergency if the French invade Austria in 1704? Like a commander of last resort. It would be an uphill battle to recover the allied position if the Franco-Bavarian forces control southern Germany and are perhaps at the gates of Vienna but Marlborough and Eugene would be the ones to do it.

 

[JonasResende]

True, I suppose Marlborough might not be given command. It would be a different, perhaps shorter war, if 1704 was a disaster for the allies in Germany.

I wonder if Marlborough could be given a lesser command, like perhaps in Spain. If he could have some success invading from Portugal in 1703-04. Say he defeats Berwick decisively and takes Cadiz. Then could he be tapped in an emergency if the French invade Austria in 1704? Like a commander of last resort. It would be an uphill battle to recover the allied position if the Franco-Bavarian forces control southern Germany and are perhaps at the gates of Vienna but Marlborough and Eugene would be the ones to do it.

Well, this is assuming that Marlborough remains loyal to England. He had several connections at St. Germaine and later in life did seriously consider jumping ship (after Anne dismissed him), so it would be fun to see Marlborough change sides because he might get a better offer from James III than William III.

 

[The Professor]

Well, this is assuming that Marlborough remains loyal to England. He had several connections at St. Germaine and later in life did seriously consider jumping ship (after Anne dismissed him), so it would be fun to see Marlborough change sides because he might get a better offer from James III than William III.

Hmmm, could this lead to an actual James III (VIII) accession?

 

[Michele]

Well, I can't contribute anything, but I just wanted to say, interesting dynastic WI here.

 

[Captain Seafort]

Well, regarding the war, there is the chance that William wouldn't make Marlborough the commander of the English troops.

Very much so. I think there was something of a reconciliation after Mary's death, but fundamentally William didn't trust Marlborough. Unsurprisingly, given the way he'd treated James II, despite being a long-standing protégé and friend.

I wonder if Marlborough could be given a lesser command, like perhaps in Spain. If he could have some success invading from Portugal in 1703-04. Say he defeats Berwick decisively and takes Cadiz. Then could he be tapped in an emergency if the French invade Austria in 1704? Like a commander of last resort. It would be an uphill battle to recover the allied position if the Franco-Bavarian forces control southern Germany and are perhaps at the gates of Vienna but Marlborough and Eugene would be the ones to do it.

Assuming William was willing to give him any command, especially in such a critical situation given his Jacobite connections, and assuming Marlborough would be willing to accept the Spanish command, or retain it, if meant fighting his nephew.

Well, this is assuming that Marlborough remains loyal to England. He had several connections at St. Germaine and later in life did seriously consider jumping ship (after Anne dismissed him), so it would be fun to see Marlborough change sides because he might get a better offer from James III than William III.

I don't think "loyal to England" is the right way to phrase it - Marlborough's loyalty to his country was never in question, merely how (and to whom in particular) he defined that loyalty. Personally I wouldn't describe his actions as considering jumping ship so much as keeping enough fingers in enough pies to ensure he was reasonably certain of coming out on top regardless of who ended up running the country.